Geek of the Week – Overachievers at the Break

Terry Campkin

2014-02-09

Anne-Marie Sorvin/USA Today Sports


As the Olympic break begins Terry Campkin takes a look at some fantasy overachievers.

It's hard to believe that we are at the Olympic break already, but here we are and those of us in H2H leagues probably only have three matchups left before playoffs start (scary, right?). Despite the fact that there isn't much regular season left, most leagues trade deadline has not yet passed so over the next two weeks I am going to take a look at some players who are overachieving/underachieving and identify whether they should be a trade target, or trade bait.

 

As a fantasy hockey GM it is always important to keep a big picture perspective. This is obviously true in keeper leagues but it is equally important in one-year leagues. If a career 60 point player has 55 points in his first 52 games, that doesn't necessarily mean he will get 35 in his next 30 but so often I see GMs making their decisions based on the 52 game sample, rather than the 8 season sample. The Olympic break provides a great opportunity for us to ground ourselves and identify players who are performing significantly different from our expectations and determine whether or not it will keep up over the final two months of the season.

 

To perform my analysis, I run two simple reports in Fantasy Hockey Geek: first, I run a league ranking based on the Dobber preseason predictions, then I run a league ranking based on the actual season to date numbers. I compare the two rankings and look for players who have large differences. I found at least 20 relevant players when I did this, but today I will detail three of them for you:

 

(Today's numbers calculated using a Yahoo! 12 team league measuring G, A, +/-, SOG, PPP, Hits):


Player Projected Rank Actual Rank (to date) Improvement
David Krejci 133 23 + 110
Alex Steen 214 55 + 159
Duncan Keith 94 12 + 82

 

The above chart lists three NHL veterans with a large amount of history to base preseason projections on, but in every case you can see tha