Geek of the Week: Underachievers at the Break

Terry Campkin




The Fantasy Hockey Geek looks at three fantasy underachievers and how they project over the balance of the season.

Last week, I profiled three players who have been overachieving this year and provided some insight as to whether or not we can expect their production to continue. Today I will take a look at the flip side of the coin with some players who have fallen well below expectations thus far and try to determine whether it is time to cut bait on them, or if they make a great buy-low candidate.


To perform my analysis, I used the exact same method as I did last week. I ran two simple reports in Fantasy Hockey Geek: first, I ran a league ranking based on the Dobber preseason predictions, then I ran a league ranking based on the actual season to date numbers. I compared the two rankings and look for players who have large differences. I found at least 20 relevant players when I did this, but today I will detail three of them for you:


(Today's numbers calculated using a Yahoo! 12 team league measuring G, A, +/-, SOG, PPP, Hits)


Player Projected Rank Actual Rank (to date) Change
Dustin Brown 12 177 -165
Eric Staal 10 128 -118
Jack Johnson 51 94 -43


The above chart lists three NHL veterans with a large amount of history to base preseason projections on, but in every case you can see that they are falling considerably short of their projected ranks. Let's take a deeper look inside each player to see how they are doing this:


(For my preseason prediction numbers, I prorated the output down to match the number of games played this season)



Dustin Brown


Scenario FHG Rank G A +/- SOG PPP Hits