March 2nd, 2014

Dobber Sports

2014-03-02

As Saturday night unfolded – and the vast majority of games were played in the afternoon  to avoid counterprogramming the 5th outdoor game of the year in Chicago – the Ryan Kesler story, and the Penguins’ “aggressive pursuit” of the two-way ace, morphed into one of the major story lines. 

 

It was pretty funny to see the Penguins offer – Brandon Sutter, Simon Despres/Brian Dumolin, a first, and a third! – literally devalue by the minute during the outdoor game against Chicago. Despres had an error prone outing, while Sutter took a shot to the face and appeared to have injured himself (he was ultimately fine, or so he said postgame)…

 

As for the reported offer itself: whoa boy, I think Mike Gillis is in serious trouble if that’s what the ultimate Ryan Kesler package looks like. I have a lot of time for Despres and Sutter, but I don’t see either player as a potential star going forward, and I don’t think that opinion falls way outside the consensus. If the Canucks are dealing Kesler, and it sure seems like they are, their embattled general manager needs to be getting a player who might be a star back…

 

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The funny thing about the proposed Kesler package is that it’s also a really steep price to pay for the Penguins, even if it’s (or should be) insufficient for the Canucks. Still, any time you can add a player like Ryan Kesler without giving up either of your two best young blue-line assets – have to think that’s a win. 

 

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Tyler Dellow did a really good job breaking down Pittsburgh’s inept forward depth on Saturday, and yeah, a significant upgrade to their bottom-six forward group seems like it might be helpful. On the other hand I look at Sutter’s most regular line-mates this season – Tanner Glass, Chris Conner, Chuck Kobasew, Joe Vitale, Craig Adams – and I’m not sure 2014 Kelser provides much of an answer. Kesler isn’t 27 anymore, and his days of dragging replacement level pieces to a 55%+ corsi for rate may be behind him.

 

In other words I think this rumored Kesler deal, if it were to go down, might be the rare “lose-lose” trade – at least in the short-term.

 

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Let’s begin our breakdown of last night’s action with the marquee event – the fifth outdoor game of the year between the Penguins and the Blackhawks at Solider’s Field. 

 

Honestly I think this might have been the best of the outdoor contests so far this year. The environment seemed right and soldier’s field looked lovely in the snow on my television. The teams looked good too in two of the better outdoor sweaters we’ve seen this year, and the matchup was just sick. 

 

Jonathan Toews ultimately got the better of Sidney Crosby by predictably getting the better of Brooks Orpik, but what a fun game.

 

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One final Penguins note: does anybody think their play without the puck is championship caliber? I’ll hang up and listen…

 

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The offensively challenged New Jersey Devils put up six on the New York Islanders, a result which says an awful lot about the Islanders.

 

Devils defenseman Eric Gelinas – one of the more intriguing fantasy newcomers of the season – played nearly 20 minutes which is great news for fantasy owners, especially since Gelinas pitched in a couple of PPPs.

 

At this point Gelinas has yo-yoed between the AHL and the NHL all year, he’s also rapidly gone between playing major minutes and being a third-pairing PP specialist. Amidst all that instabilitiy he’s probably spent a good deal of time on the waiver wire in your league. In mine he’s basically the village bicycle at this point, everyone has taken him for a spin.

 

If he’s getting 17-20 minutes per game, however, he’s extremely valuable. For now it looks like he is…

 

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New York Islanders defenseman Calvin de Haan continues to log close to top-pairing minutes for the Islanders, and should have a bit of value heading into the playoffs. de Haan is a flawed fantasy asset – he isn’t going to fill up the scoresheet, or rack up power-play points, and playing in front of Nabokov/Poulin he’ll be a minus player – but I really like his shot + hit rate, which is enough to keep him on my radar.

 

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Ryan Strome was the sexy add during the Olympic break, especially as it became apparent that John Tavares was done for the year as a result of a knee injury against Latvia. But Brock Nelson’s fantasy value appears to be benefitting more from Tavares’ absence than Strome’s in the early going.

 

Nelson has taken Tavares’ top-line minutes, really, while Strome played under 15 per game.

 

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Jaromir Jagr joined the exclusive 700 goal club, which he’d have joined years ago if not for three seasons spent in the KHL and three seasons lost in full or in part to labour stoppages.

 

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Zac Rinaldo and Dan Carcillo did their thing in Saturday afternoon’s Rangers v. Flyers tif, as each player managed 12 PIM and 3 hits in under eight minutes of work. That’s veteran savvy right there.

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Scott Hartnell also filled up the boxscore with an assist, 4 PIMs, 6 shots, and 4 hits, while Brayden Schenn managed a shot, an assist, a PPP and five hits. Nice under-the-radar outings from those Flyers forwards.

 

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Alexander Ovechkin pretty much single-handedly powered the Washington Captials past the Boston Bruins in his matinee tilt. Ovechkin also had a ridiculous fantasy outing with a hit, two goals, two PPP and 9(!) shots. What a superstar.

 

As good as Ovechkin was, players like Joel Ward and Eric Fehr were critical too. Fehr played center last night on the third line, and scored a goal while chipping in 5 shots, 2 PIMs and a hit. Nice outing for a guy who has struggled the past few seasons, but certainly appears to have his legs going at the moment.

 

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The Blue Jackets put up six on the Florida Panthers, and it was the rare blowout victory in which Columbus didn’t score a single goal at 5-on-5. They managed three 5-on-4 goals, one 4-on-5 goal, and two 5-on-6 goals. Good times.

 

Artem Anisimov’s shorthanded goal, by the way, was rather lovely.

 

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Jacob Trouba had one hell of a game on Saturday night against the Predators, logging major minutes and really controlling proceedings. From a fantasy perspective as well, Trouba was productive as he managed an assist, was +1, took a minor penalty, and contributed a hit and a shot on goal. As good as he’s been as a rookie, Trouba could be serious Subban-lite type fantasy gold next season. 

 

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Pekka Rinne played an AHL game on Friday and is slated to do so again today. Presuming everything goes well on Sunday, Rinne might be back in the NHL next week. So react accordingly if he’s on your IR (or even better if he’s available)…

 

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The Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Dallas Stars behind two Martin St. Louis goals (of course). Killorn, Hedman and Palat all contributed a couple of points each – with Killorn adding six shots, a +3 rating and a couple of shots into the equation – while Ben Bishop did his thing, stopping 39 of 41 shots.

 

Though they didn’t come away with the two points, the Stars were phenomenal on Saturday. Their electric top forward line combined for 13 shots (7 taken by Tyler Seguin) and really Dallas deserved a better fate in this contest. I find it difficult to see how they don’t make the postseason, especially when one considers that they might be better than a couple of teams ahead of them (like Minnesota, and Colorado).

 

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Jonathan Quick (23 saves on 24 shots) outduelled Anton Khudobin (28 saves on 30 shots). Khudobin continues to provide pretty significant value, especially considering how he was available on waivers in most leagues just a couple of months ago…

 

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PK Subban was on his way to an uneventful fantasy outing when he scored a power-play goal mid-way through the third period, and got a second power-play point in overtime on Max Pacioretty’s game winner. At least for my fantasy team, those power-play points were clutch!

 

Phil Kessel’s line remained hot on Saturday, even as their team blew another third period lead. Kessel took six shots in the contest, while James van Riemsdyk notched a couple of goals. 

 

On the Montreal side Max Pacioretty was ridiculously good, as the American winger managed 8 shots on goal, two goals, one PPP and a couple of hits in the victory.

 

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The Calgary Flames beat the Edmonton Oilers behind Sean Monahan’s 18th goal of the season in overtime. Borrring!

 

More interesting to talk about from my perspective: David Perron scored his 23rd goal of the year in the losing effort and managed a couple of shots and four hits. Perron has usually been pretty reliable on the hits side of things, but his shot rate has exploded this season away from Ken Hitchcock’s “safe is life” puck possession system. 

 

This shouldn’t come as a surprise, really. Consider this Elliotte Friedman quote from October: “Perron and Ken Hitchcock clashed on things like how to approach a two-on-two rush. The forward always wanted to try for a scoring chance, the coach wanted a safer play (like a dump-in) if Perron could only achieve such an opportunity about one-quarter of the time. It will be interesting to see how he does as a more unleashed offensive player.” Yep, asking a skilled player to dump the puck in on a two-on-two. Hitchcock is one of my favorite coaches in hockey – he’s ridiculously good at winning games – but goodness is that a dull approach, and also one that serves to reign in some Blues players fantasy value…

 

Anyway, I wonder if something similar to what we saw with Perron this year might be observed from Chris Stewart in Buffalo – or wherever he ultimately ends up. Worth watching for, certainly.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NSH Players
22.3 STEVEN STAMKOS JONATHAN MARCHESSAULT FILIP FORSBERG
20.4 RYAN O'REILLY GUSTAV NYQUIST ZACHARY L'HEUREUX
17.8 COLE SMITH COLTON SISSONS MICHAEL MCCARRON

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