Martin St. Louis is as dynamic a forward as you’ll find. Well, except in multi-cat leagues…
It was a big week of news in the NHL, with many notable names changing teams and many others rumored to be moving, but staying put. Today I am going to take a look at the one who (outside of Vancouver) made the biggest splash: Marin St. Louis.
Did the Tampa Bay Lightning under appreciate this guy? Is Marty still fuming from his omission from his original Team Canada Olympic Team? Maybe his displeasure goes all the way back to the team buying out Lecavalier? Or, maybe St. Louis is just a whiner. It could be any one or combination of those things, but honestly, I don't care. All that matters to me is what this guy can do for my fantasy hockey team and as it turns out, he does a whole lot less than you might think:
MSL currently sits 14th in NHL scoring, with just under a point per game and he spreads his points out nicely as he is tied for 6th in goals with 29. Coming into this season, his average draft position was 14th in Yahoo! leagues which, considering his point total, may lead you to believe that the general public nailed it. Fantasy Hockey Geek shows us though, that they may not have:
(12 team Yahoo! H2H league: G, A, +/-, PPP, Shots, Hits)
You can see that despite his great point totals, MSL is only the 77th most valuable player in a league of this format. Fantasy nobody turned stud, Andrej Sekera is providing almost as much value as the reigning Art Ross winner! How can it be that MSL can puts up so many points and dominates so well, but be worth so little? Let's take a look:
Shots: St. Louis' shots have dropped off significantly and it turns out that we should not be surprised by this. Since his 99 point season in 2010-11, St Louis has averaged under 2.5 shots per game for an average pace of just over 200 shots per season. The fact that he has scored 29 goals on only 167 shots this season is borderline miraculous (read: unsustainable) so I would argue that his high goal total is artificially inflated, meaning that his value of 77 is actually slightly high as well.
PPP: MSL's bread and butter has always been his powerplay production and with 18 so far this season, he is on a reasonable 24 PPP pace. I would ordinarily say that this is decent, but when you consider that this is the one area where Marty is supposed to be "elite" the total leaves a lot to be desired. A lot of folks wouldn't even know about MSL's drop off in powerplay production off the top of their head, but it is significant and is the largest factor contributing to his overall value decline.