Looking back to October 2009 and the precipitous fall of Vincent Lecavalier.

One of the aspects of sport that always astonishes me is how quickly things change. Both for the better and for the worse. One day a player can be at the absolute zenith of their spot, on the cover of magazines, doing commercials for soft drinks, winning Art Ross trophies. And then, over the course of mere months in some cases, it can all be gone.

I don't know if there is a better case study for the velocity of decline in sports, specifically in hockey, than Vincent Lecavalier.

Sometimes when I think about him I wrongly assume that he was simply a star in the mid-2000s. Looking through his career stats he actually maintained a relatively elite status for five years, between 2005 and 2010. The peak of course during the 2006-07 season when he finished with 52 goals, 108 points, and 339 shots on net. Today those numbers would be comparable to Alex Ovechkin or Sidney Crosby. 

Since that time it has been a steady decline, one that has really been a huge surprise to a lot of poolies. At the time when Lecavalier and Martin St.Louis were linemates on those Tampa teams it would have been inconceivable to think that the aging winger would be the far superior long term bet in fantasy. But here we are. Lecavalier is still only 33 years old, but has been relegated to second line minutes in Philadelphia, appearing to be a 45 to 50 point player moving forward. Conversely, St.Louis is 38, is coming off of an Art Ross trophy last season, and hovering near a point per game again this year (62 points in 65 games).

It is with all this in mind that I looked back to Dobber's rankings in October of 2009. This seems to be the last time that Lecavalier was truly considered a premier asset. He was 29 years old, had just finished a slightly down campaign in 2008-09, yet still looked like one of the safest investments in fantasy for the coming three to five years. Below is a list of the top 50 ranks:

Since that time his numbers have been on the decline in virtually every category. Points have dropped from 70 in 2009-10 all the way down to a 42 point pace this season. Once a reliable source of 290 or more shots, he has seen those totals drop to under 2.0 per game.

Perhaps the most telling stat for Levavalier has been his games played in recent years. He just hasn't been able to stay healthy for an extended period, which has had the two-fold effect of not only hurting his totals, but likely affecting his physical tools – which have eroded sharply since 2009.

Since playing in all 82 games during 2009-10 he has suited up for only 65, 64, 65 (pro-rated), and has already missed more than 10 games this season.

When looking over his career numbers I feel like I should be witnessing a former star playing out his final days at 37 or 38. But with Levavalier we have a player who declined a full three or four seasons earlier than what you would typically expect. In fantasy hockey he would have certainly torpedoed many a long term plans (likely for some readers) who were looking at him as a cornerstone piece.

So what is the lesson we can take from this? Much like Forsberg or Heatley, Levavalier's career raises some interesting questions around how to value players that are in their late twenties and early thirties. On the one hand they are still well within their primes and key contributors. On the other, if they start to fall quickly you'll have a difficult time recouping that value once other managers have caught on.

Ultimately it depends on your appetite for risk (as it almost always does). How young and secure are your other core pieces? Can you afford to take a chance on an aging star player entering his thirties? Creating a balance on your roster is the best way to guard against the fallout from a Levavalier-like decline.

I don't know if there is a way to completely protect yourself from the disappointment though. With guys like him, we'll be forced to forever wonder what could have been…

Darren is a fantasy hockey writer and contributor for Dobber Hockey – you can find him on twitter @FantasyHockeyDK  

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