March 20, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-03-20

Update:

 

Alex Killorn will not receive supplemental discipline for last night’s hit. So there you go.

 

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Steven Stamkos unleashed a hat-trick on the Maple Leafs last night scoring on all three of his shots. Is he "back" or has he just picked on some poor defensive squads? Probably a little bit of both.

 

Stamkos now has five goals and seven points in seven games since returning with all those points coming in three of the last four games, picking on the Leafs, Canucks and Panthers. I don't know that we hold that against him. The best players feast on bad teams and teams playing badly. So enjoy the ride.

 

Valtteri Filppula owners need enjoy the ride as well. He's scored 10 points over a six-game scoring streak and is making money occupying the Martin St. Louis spot on the top power play unit. He's clicked on at least two of these in the past week:

 

 

I realize it's a power play but I don't know how you let that pass through. That would be my number one concern. Credit Filppula for getting it through though. He might score a point per game the rest of the way just off passes like these.

 

Tyler Johnson is in the money as well skating on the top line with Stamkos and leading the second PP unit.

 

I mused last week that Ben Bishop might be in tough if the Lightning keep playing poor defense in front of him. He's now won four in a row but has allowed three goals or more in seven of his last eight starts with only a shutout against New Jersey standing out. That's some cherry-picking to be sure but if the Lightning don't calm down Bishop will be a much tougher play through the fantasy playoffs.

 

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Scary moment to end the first period as Paul Ranger was checked head-first into the glass by Alex Killorn. Ranger had to be stretchered off and was taken to the hospital for precautionary reasons. No word on if he will miss time.

 

Killorn was handed a match-penalty and is looking at some potential supplementary discipline so keep an eye out for that if he's on your squad.

 

James Reimer is having quite the run of futility. It's tough because I like his game but he's allowing way too many softies. I also think that the team doesn't have the same confidence playing in front of him as they do Jonathan Bernier, who can't get back soon enough.

 

Phil Kessel ended a four-game drought with a goal last night. I normally wouldn't make mention of it but we are in the fantasy playoffs now so every scoreless game for a star comes under scrutiny. And Kessel is tied for second in the league in scoring (with Ryan Getzlaf and Claude Giroux) so the expectations are high.

 

Joffrey Lupul went scoreless after notching assists in the two previous games. I enjoyed this perspective on Lupul's time in Toronto and what we should expect going forward:


This season Lupul has seen his numbers drop back down to earth. He has "only" 39 points in 60 games and has seen his points per game average drop down to .65. Having looked at as many things as I could, I think the 2013-14 Lupul is the true version and the one for the two years prior wasn't. Make no mistake, Lupul is still a very valuable member of the Leafs team and still a very capable scorer. I just think the days of him being a point per game elite player were short lived and in the past.


This is one of those great "managing expectations" articles that we sometimes need to keep those lofty visions of upside in check and coming up with something more realistic.

 

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Just when Patrick Kane was starting to score again he goes and gets hurt. He left the game and did not return. Word from his agent was that he'll miss at least two weeks.

 

I don't know how he could possibly know how long Kane will be out within a couple hours of the injury so I'm going to reserve judgement until after the MRI. One thing you can tell for sure is that this is either a ligament or a meniscus. Let's all hope it's just a sprain. My gut tells me to write off Kane for the rest of the regular season but again let's wait for the MRI.

 

Good for the Blackhawks to press on and notch a dominant win over the division leading Blues. The win, combined with the Avs loss (more on that to come) launched Chicago back into second in the division and within six points of the top spot.

 

I don't think it's going out on a limb to say that the Blackhawks aren't getting that top spot though. The Blues have a game in hand and have a four win lead in the tiebreaker – regulation plus overtime wins – with 13 games remaining (12 for Chicago). That's going to be tough to leap.

 

So it'll be Chicago-Colorado in round one, which should be a fast and excellent series. If the Blackhawks can't get healthy they could even go down but I think we deserve a Chicago-St. Louis matchup in round two. Make it happen, hockey gods!

 

Those injury concerns are real, however. Kane is on the shelf for who knows how long and if he does return he could be limited. Brandon Saad is out as well. Marian Hossa just got back from injury. I expect to see them at "full strength" come playoff time but really this team will be hurting before the post-season even begins. But that's what happens when you win the Cup, have a short summer, then play 82 games plus the Olympics.

 

The beauty of this Blackhawks team is they know the toll winning takes and they know the depth required to survive. That's why guys like Andrew Shaw are so important. Shaw has seven points in the last seven games. Scoop him up if you need a boost, although we do need to see how he does without Kane.

 

Corey Crawford got the shutout, just his second of the season. He is rounding into playoff form however. Crawford has allowed two goals or less in six of eight games since the Olympics. Perfect timing.

 

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I suppose Ryan Miller was due for a dud eventually. This was his first regulation loss in Blues uniform getting chased midway through the third period. I wouldn't worry too much. The Blues are still dynamite although they do have a tough upcoming schedule:

 

 

@Philadelphia

@Pittsburgh

@Toronto

Minnesota

Dallas

Philadelphia

Buffalo

Colorado

@Chicago

Washington

@Minnesota

@Dallas

Detroit

 

Not too many gimmies in that bunch. Still, I like Miller's odds of success. Check out this read on Miller's effect on the Blues:


Forward T.J. Oshie recently spoke to Louie Korac of NHL.com about Miller's calming influence and had this to say about the goalie's disposition:

It seems like [Miller] never is panicking in the net. It's like he's always right there on every save. He gloves the puck so calmly and covers it so calmly. It's nice to see that confidence in him and that poise.

 

Patrik Berglund was held off the board despite five shots on goal. He had picked up his pace a bit since the Olympics but now sits at six goals and seven points over that 12-game stretch. The goals are obviously on the rise but overall scoring is basically on par.

 

You could argue that Berglund was fired up by the Olympics, where he played well or that some movement about the lineup including some frequent shifts on the wing have put him in a better spot. I call it luck, notably having clicked on a quarter of his shots so far, which is already balancing out.

 

That's not to say that Berglund can't be extra productive down the stretch, I'm just not buying it.

 

Alex Pietrangelo saw a four-game scoring streak come to a close. He sits at 47 points on the year, just four back of his career high. He needs to score a point per game to break 60 this season. Unlikely but he can do it!

 

Kevin Shattenkirk has been really quiet in the second half. He has just four points in his last 18 games. It's too bad as he was on pace for 60 points up until then. He sits at just 40 now, three back of his career high. He'll get there but I was hoping for at least 50.

 

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Helluva match between Colorado and Winnipeg combining for nine goals in an overtime affair. Not surprisingly both teams had their backups in net.

 

For Winnipeg Al Montoya has the reins with Ondrej Pavelec on the shelf. Had this been a month ago I'd have applauded but Pavelec had been playing pretty well since the Olympics so it's unfortunate to see his momentum stifled.

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For his part Montoya has been perfectly average winning two out of three starts.

The Jets were also without Dustin Byfuglien who is currently day-to-day.

 

Andrew Ladd and Blake Wheeler really stepped up in this one with Ladd contributing two goals and Wheeler adding two assists plus the game winner. Check out his patience on this one:

 

 

As brilliant as it was all I could think of watching the replay was the Simpsons soccer scene.

 

Wheeler has gone off recently with eight points in the last four games and the one game he went scoreless he took part in a scrum that saw him finish with 15 PIM. That's sweet rotisserie style meat.

 

Paul Postma got into the lineup for what feels like the first time since October (it's actually the second) and notched his first two assists of the season. Don't look to him for points this season but he's a guy who has been productive at the AHL level and is a pretty solid pro. In another city I think he could be a fantasy asset.

 

Tobias Enstrom also notched a couple of assists giving him six points in the last four games. I'm not sure I'm ready to believe he's experiencing a late-season resurrection but I'm willing to consider the possibility. No doubt he's sitting on your waiver wire considering the dreadful season he's had.

 

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Reto Berra got the start, his first for the Avs and got gouged for all five scores. If there's appeal to this guy I'm not sure what it is. The Avs are committed to him long term too after signing him to an extension recently.

 

Jamie McGinn extended his scoring streak to five games. Enjoy it while you can, this guy is streaky!

 

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Well, I'll be… Eddie Lack with a shutout. Who saw that coming? I'll give him so credit though, despite the Canucks' freefall Lack has held up a 0.904 Save% since the Olympics. That is by no means good but it's adequate under the circumstances.

 

Henrik Sedin is finding a little bit of mojo just when you'd given up on him. Give Sedin five assists in the last three games.

 

The main beneficiary is Nicklas Jensen who has three goals and four points on a four-game scoring streak. There's a temptation to project Jensen into that top line spot again next season based on this fairly successful cameo but I would preach caution. The reason he has this shot is injuries and because the Canucks have no excuse not to experiment.

 

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I’ll bet all you Rinne owners were hoping for another start from the big man with a chance to make some headway after that lemon in Edmonton the other night. Zero chance he starts in the back-to-back situation. Not with Nashville so far out.

 

Carter Hutton got the start and was solid but he needed to be perfect.

 

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Interesting article discussing Boston's depth and Carl Soderberg clicking with Loui Eriksson.


Soderberg's developed good chemistry with Eriksson. From when they're young boys, Swedes are taught to think creatively in tight spaces. Coaches introduce games and situational play along the walls and in the corners. The Swedes jab and cut and poke by using their hockey sense.

 

I've seen a lot of discussion regarding Soderberg's upside so I'll address it here. I'm not overly high on Soderberg but it's mostly because of how balanced Boston's lineup is. They roll four lines and have three that are very capable scoring units.

 

The top line with Jarome Iginla, David Krejci and Milan Lucic is definitely the "go-to" unit, especially as it relates to power play chances but it is interesting to see how the second PP unit breaks down.

 

The Bruins roll four forwards on their second unit with Patrice Bergeron, Reilly Smith, Eriksson and Soderberg. And you can see by how they balance the minutes that this second unit does see plenty of time.

 

This allows Soderberg to be relevant, especially when he goes on a run like these past few weeks – 17 points in 19 games – but skating less than 15 minutes per game is not going to translate to consistent points. So I applaud the 45 or so points he will finish the season with. That's great production for a third line player but I think it's going to take injuries to get him any higher next season.

 

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Not exactly fantasy relevant but Dale Tallon had some great things to say about Erik Gudbranson:

 

 

 

 

 

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I linked to Eric Tulsky's piece from last week touched upon how players tend to fall off significantly at age 30. This was in relation to five-on-five scoring rate and not overall scoring. It sparked a discussion with Darren Kennedy about whether or not you should look to trade Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf as they approach age 30.

 

I hypothesized that power play scorers would be more consistent and that passers tend to age better than scorers but also mentioned that there is no real distinction between elite players in this study so we can't know for sure how that specific group would be affected. I tend to agree with the notion that it's better to get out a year early than a year late but would still struggle to give up on stars like Perry and Getzlaf. My hypothesis leads me to believe that Getzlaf would be the better keep between the two because of his assist/PPP-heavy scoring comparing him to Joe Thornton, while Perry was a player I compared to Jarome Iginla.

 

It so happens that Tulsky has more on the subject this week, discussing which types of players age better:


At 5-on-5, players retain their ability to accumulate assists a lot longer than their ability to score goals. So just like we’d expect a power play specialist to retain more of his ability as he ages, we should expect a passer to age better than a scorer.

 

He also linked to a piece of his previous work discussing how power play production tends to age better than five-on-five scoring.

 

That still doesn't answer my question regarding stars vs. lesser players but it does tend jive with my opinion that a player like Getzlaf is a stronger bet than Perry as they age into their thirties.

 

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Looks like Cam Fowler is out three to five weeks, or in other words, the fantasy playoffs. He should be back for the real playoffs so keep him in mind come playoff pool time but for the rest of the regular season he's droppable.

 

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Justin Bourne thinks that "peaking" is really just taking things seriously.

 

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Real classy move by the Sharks inviting a fan to spend a day with the team.

 

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You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

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