In Full Bloom

Dobber Sports

2014-04-01

GustavNyquist


This week the Eastern Edge looks at a handful of players and what their future might bring



When I read through the forums, I often see questions like, “is player X for real” or “what can we expect next year and beyond”.  This week, I’ll give you my take on five Eastern Conference players that have caught my eye.


Ondrej Palat – Tampa Bay Lightning

In the 62 games Palat played this season before Martin St. Louis was traded, he had 37 points, a 50 point pace. Since the arrival of Ryan Callahan, Palat has been taking nearly 80 per cent of his even-strength shifts with Callahan and Valtteri Filppula. Over the 13 games that followed the big deal, Palat has recorded 14 points, an 88 point pace. What are we to make of this?

In his final year of junior hockey, Palat scored 39 goals and 96 points in 61 games and was plus-37 for Drummondville of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League. His first American Hockey League (AHL) season, he scored 30 points in 61 games. Last year, he played 14 games with the Lightning, recording only four points while maintaining a plus-5 rating. It was in the AHL where he really broke out with 52 points in only 56 games and had a very healthy plus-26 rating. Palat recorded a whopping 26 points over 18 games to lead the AHL playoff scoring race and once again finished on the positive side of the plus/minus ledger at plus-11.

This season, Palat is a lock for 20 goals and close to 60 points. His plus/minus is a team leading plus-27, Tyler Johnson is second at plus-19. Palat has the 13th best plus/minus in the entire NHL. Another bonus for fantasy teams is that he receives top penalty-kill minutes amongst Lightning forwards and has recorded four short-handed points so far this year.

Those of you that know my stance on plus/minus (worst individual statistic in hockey) are likely surprised that I used it here, but please hear me out.  When you take the body of Palat’s work and that he consistently leads his teams in plus/minus, plus the fact that his coach trusts the rookie to kill penalties, I can confidently say that Palat’s defensive prowess should not be questioned. When you watch him play, he stands out (in a good way). The soon to be 23-year-old is simply a player. Barring a sophomore slump or coaching change, I see 25 goals and 70-75 points next season. Not bad for a seventh round pick (2011).


Gustav Nyquist – Detroit Red Wings

The 24-year-old Swede has recorded 122 points in what should now be 122 career AHL games after what he has shown down the stretch in the absence of Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg.

Nyquist took the college route, playing three seasons with Maine, recording 32, 61 and 51 point years. In his first professional season following college, he registered 58 points in 56 AHL games and seven points in 18 NHL contests. Last year, he recorded 60 points in 58 AHL matches and six points in 22 NHL games.

He started this season once again in the AHL and had 21 points in 15 games before being recalled in November. He had five points in as many November games, but struggled with a groin, uh, I mean lower-body injury, leaving him with only five points over a span of 17 games from December until January 16. Since then, he has an incredible 22 goals and 35 points in 28 games, which pro-rates to a 64 goal, 103 point full season. We can't forget that a large chunk of that was without the Red Wings top two offensive stars.  

Over his last 10 games, Nyquist has played 44 per cent of his even-strength shifts with Riley Sheahan and Tomas Tatar and 29 per cent with Johan Franzen and David Legwand. When Zetterberg was healthy, Nyquist took the majority of his even-strength shifts with the elder Swede. Nyquist has a nine game point streak on the go, while recording 11 goals and 13 points during that stretch.

Obviously with his recent run, he’s not exactly a sleeper in any fantasy leagues, but if his current owners can be convinced that once Datsyuk and Zetterberg return, Nyquist’s ice time and therefore production will suffer (it might if he gets less power play time), then jump all over this seriously red-hot Wing.


Reilly Smith and Carl Soderberg – Boston Bruins

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Just what the Bruins needed, more forward depth! Not many teams in the league can roll three legitimate scoring lines like Boston can. Last year, they dealt away rumoured problem-child Tyler Seguin, who is currently sitting fifth in league scoring (nice problem to have) and Rich Peverley; but they received Loui Eriksson and Reilly Smith as part of the return.

Reilly Smith played three seasons of college hockey, recording 54 and 48 points over his last two years respectively. Last season was his first as a professional and he didn’t disappoint with 35 points in 45 AHL games and contributed nine points in 37 NHL contests.

For the majority of this campaign, Smith has played on a line with Patrice Bergeron and “Bad” Brad Marchand. He averages only 14:37 minutes of overall ice time per game, but does see second unit power play time. Even though his point production has dried up with only four points over his last 16 games, he will still finish the year in excess of 50 points.

Even if the Bruins bring back 63-year-old Jarome Iginla and Loui Eriksson has no further concussion issues, Smith, a restricted free agent at season’s end, still fits comfortably in Boston’s top nine forward group.

There was some doubt that Carl Soderberg was ever going to cross the pond to try his hand at the NHL, enough that St. Louis dealt the 2004 second rounder to Boston for goaltender Hannu Toivonen in 2007. Last year, Soderberg scored 31 goals and 60 points in 54 games in Sweden’s top circuit.

Since January 27, Soderberg has 22 points in 25 games. Over his last 10 games, Soderberg has taken nearly 80 per cent of his even-strength shifts with Loui Eriksson and Chris Kelly. He is in the same situation as Smith with regards to ice time, receiving 14 minutes per contest and getting mop up duty on the power play.

Soderberg has a legitimate chance to hit 50 points this year. Can the 28-year-old repeat that feat next season? Yes he can, but on this deep Bruins team, don’t expect more than that.


Anders Lee – New York Islanders

While having a name like Anders, you might think that he is a Swede, but the big 23-year-old hails from Minnesota. Although he was drafted by the Isles in the sixth round back in 2009, Lee took his time in getting to the NHL, averaging 39 points during his three years of college hockey at Notre Dame. He played two NHL games at the end of his college season last year, recording a goal and assist.

This season, since his emergency recall, he has 11 points in 14 NHL games. He has spent over half of his even-strength shifts with Frans Nielsen and Kyle Okposo, decent company to keep for an offensive-minded player.

It’s hard to explain why some prospects come in and do well right away, while others take longer to acclimatize to the pace of the NHL. This season, as mentioned earlier, Lee has 11 points in 14 NHL games, while Strome has 13 points in 29 games. At the AHL level this year, Lee has 41 points in 54 games, while Strome has 49 points in 37 games.

Looking at the Islanders depth chart next season and assuming they don’t bring in a replacement for Matt Moulson/Thomas Vanek, Lee will be in the mix for a top six role. He should battle for the final top six slot somewhere after John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen, Michael Grabner and probably Josh Bailey, but will be competing with uber-prospect Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson and the less likely Casey Cizikas. If Lee can keep bringing it like he has so far this year, with his speed and size, he might just stick around.   


Recently from Eastern Edge:

 

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