Geek of the Week names Kings captain Dustin Brown the Fantasy Bust of the Year.

Last week I wrote about how Sidney Crosby is my 2013-2014 Fantasy Hockey MVP and it was pretty easy to figure out who the MVP was, especially with the amazing season Sid is putting up. This week I am going to tackle a slightly tougher angle with my 2013-14 Fantasy Bust of the Year: Dustin Brown.

Deciding who would be my "Bust of the Year" was a little less straight forward than the MVP because my MVP was simply the highest ranked player, whereas I don't' think that identifying a bust of the year is as simple as picking the lowest rank player. My definition of a "bust" is the player who most drastically underachieved their preseason expectations. Here is how I landed on Dustin Brown:

(All analysis were conducted for a 12 team Yahoo! league measuring G, A, +\-, PPP, SOG, Hits).

First I ran a Fantasy Hockey Geek report based on Dobber's player predictions that were made in the preseason. The output of this would provide me with an objective idea of what our expectations were for all players going into the season. I only included the top 100 players because let's face it: if a player was projected to be outside of the top 100, how big of a bust could he have been?

Now that I had the preseason expectations documented, I ran a second Fantasy Hockey Geek report to see where everyone's values were actually coming in for this season. I removed any player who had played less than 65 games because I don't think that getting injured qualifies a player as a bust. I then did a simple calculation of the player's actual rank vs. their projected rank and I was left with the list of players that have been killing fantasy mangers the most this season. Here are the top three:

You can see that based on the preseason projections, Dustin Brown would have been the 17th most valuable player in this league but what has actually transpired is a completely different story. Brown's value has plummeted all the way down to Andrew Shaw territory at 143rd.

A bust that big is almost impossible to recover from and the worst part with Brown is that it wasn't exactly easy to see this coming. In the Dobber Exeprts' league, Brown was drafted in the third round by Steve Laidlaw. At the time I would have told you that he got some great value at that pick but Brown has been killing him all year and Laidlaw sits firmly in 12^th place….MILES below yours truly (who is in 11^th). In a league that competitive, having a third round pick flame out this badly is enough to sink your entire team's hopes.

So what has caused the epic plummet for Brown? I touched on some of this in my article on underachievers at the break, but I will reiterate: Brown's fall is directly tied to his changing role in LA. Brown has typically been an incredibly valuable player because he is a grit guy who will get you the hits and shots, but he has also supplemented that with decent offensive production and good powerplay numbers. Guys like this are incredibly valuable because if you own enough players that contribute all around then you don't need to waste roster spots on specialists just to beef up your hits. The problem with a guy like Brown though, is that if the offense goes away he becomes what you are trying to avoid: a specialist. Let's take a look at how Brown is coming in vs. expectations in each category:

Brown's decrease in SOG and hits can be directly tied to his ice time. He is only playing 15:50 per game this season compared to over 19 minutes last season. The emergence of Tyler Toffoli, the health of Jeff Carter and the addition of Marian Gaborik have all been significant factors in the reduction of opportunities for Brown.

The measly four powerplay points are probably the biggest factor in Brown's value dip and again this is a direct result of his changing role. Last season, Brown was second on the team in PP TOI per game but this season he is ninth.

Brown's goal and assist total is also down, which is also driven by the reduction of ice time and powerplay time. His goal totally also isn't being helped much by his 7.5% shooting percentage which is his lowest since his rookie season.

What it all adds up to is a pretty terrible season for a former multi-cat stud. If you were a Dustin Brown owner this season, you are probably feeling the pain. A smart GM won't just complain about how line juggling ruined his fantasy hockey season though; a smart GM will learn from what happened and there are at least three key things we can learn from the example of Dustin Brown:

1. 1)Seeing how little value a player like Brown has when he isn't scoring really demonstrates how much you DON'T want to own a specialist. You are far better off getting your hits from a multi cat guy like Brown USED to be (Backes, Callahan, E Kane etc) then a guy like Brown now is. In a "you don't know what you got till it's gone" kind of way, seeing how much damage Brown's declining production did to his value only further exemplifies how valuable he was in the first place.

1. 2)Opportunity is everything in the NHL and in fantasy hockey. I personally don't think Brown's skill has diminished that much if at all, but when you take 4 minutes of prime playing time away from a guy and move him from a line with Kopitar and Williams to a line with Jordan Nolan and Jarret Stoll – his value is going to take a significant hit. If you see this happening with one of your players act to move him quick before his numbers reflect the change.

1. 3)If you think about the opposite of #2, you may be able to find some great value ahead of the curve. If a player like Brown is toiling on the 3^rd or 4^th line but suddenly is given the opportunities that Brown had been given prior to this season, there could be some huge value there. Think: Troy Brouwer on the Caps top line. Keep an eye on players like Tom Wilson, Colin McDonald, Tuomo Ruutu, Nino Niederreiter etc. If any of those players happen to find themselves with some prime minutes, their value could jump from this-year Dustin Brown territory to last-year Dustin Brown territory. Skill is only part of the equation in fantasy hockey; opportunity is equally important.

Dustin Brown is without a doubt my Fantasy Hockey bust of the year. To see who the biggest busts are in your own league log into Fantasy Hockey Geek today and check it out!