Top 100 Roto – April 2014

Dobber Sports

2014-04-22

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Welcome to the Top 100 Roto, a ranking of the Top 100 per-game rotisserie contributors in one-year leagues. What this list brings to the table is a clear indication of not only per-game value, but where that value comes from. Is Steen’s value going to go up or down when your league adds hits next year? Download April 2014 Rankings (PDF).

 

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Well, the regular season is done and the Top 100 Roto is set for the year. Playoffs will not be a part of the equation for the Top 100 Roto, as the playoffs traditionally dampen scoring while increasing hits in a way that is not predictive of future regular season levels.

 

I would like to hope that this list helped some people out in the first year, and it has only scratched the surface of what it can be. This summer, I will be focusing on tweaking the formula, looking at possible feature additions and analyzing the predictive value of the rotisserie list. If you would like to contribute or have a suggestion, please send me an email, or just put in a comment at the bottom. At the end of this article I have listed some things that I would like to implement to make a better model.

 

 

As a little taster, the PDF features the Top Ten Roto players from 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 (using statistics from each respective season). The actual (April) list, is a weighted average of the three years and Dobber’s preseason projections. In brackets is the player's position on the current (overall) list. Only four players who made one of the yearly top ten's (including the only two defensemen to make the list) are not in the top fifteen overall. The Top Roto players tend to stay near the top. During the offseason, I hope to do some actual analysis of the whole Top 100, and how much their place in one season correlates to the next season.

 

One thing to take from this, is that even pre-Penguins, Neal was and is a dominant roto force. He has placed third, seventh, and first in the past three years. When he plays, he is unquestionably elite and is highly underrated in many leagues. His stats make him seem like an Ovechkin-lite, other than the fact that he ranks higher than Alex Ovechkin. Neal and Ovechkin have the same category scores in goals, assists and shots; Ovechkin is two tiers above Neal in hits and one in shots on goal, however Neal makes up for that by being a tier better in plus/minus and PIM.

 

It might seem odd that the average of Ovechkin’s category scores is actually better than Neal's, but that is just due to rounding. Neal is slightly better in assists, and is a hair away from being tier-four in PIM’s as well as tier-three in PPP. If you disagree with the ranking of Ovechkin in plus/minus, and you think he is going to be at even just plus-eight over in an 80 game season, that is enough to push him to the top of the list and overtake Neal. Even at the top of the list, there is a lot of upwards room in the projections and they become even more powerful when you modify them as you see fit.

 

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The two most notable newcomers to the list are Patrick Maroon (five goals, seven assists, plus-five, 12 PIM, two PPP, 22 hits in the past thirty days) and