Looking at the biggest Cage Match ‘misses’ over the past year. Duchene vs Turris, Richards vs. Pavelski and more
Several DobberHockey writers have already looked back at their columns from the 2013-14 season to see how accurate their predictions were. Although in many cases my predicted Cage Match winner was indeed the actual winner for 2013-14, I also had my fair share of misses.
And since I think that in general there's more to be learned from mistakes, I'm going to highlight (lowlight?) a few of my 2013 Cage Match columns where my conclusions proved to be off the mark. In doing so, I'll also emphasize some important fantasy lessons and takeaways that can be learned.
Context and Your Comments/Feedback
I'm only going to draw from Cage Match columns between August (when I took over from Steve Laidlaw) and December 2013. I set the cut off in December since otherwise there wouldn't have been enough elapsed time to really look back and see what went wrong in the misses.
At the end of the article, I'll talk about my approaches to researching and writing Cage Match, and you can use the comments to give me your feedback. It's always good to seize upon opportunities like these to get some food for thought.
If there's one thing to emphasize in general, it's that the way to evaluate players is by doing your homework and spotting things that other GMs might miss. At the same time, you have to be careful not to outthink yourself; in other words, although it's fine to take chances and speculate to some degree, you should trust the numbers and resist the urge to think too far outside the box.
Biggest Misses from 2013 (and Lessons Learned from Them)
Mike Richards vs. Joe Pavelski (October 2, 2013)
There's no way to avoid starting my list of misses within anything other than this October match, which included a now cringeworthy sentence: "I'm taking Richards over Pavelski in nearly every one year league format, as I just don't see any way Pavelski outperforms Richards this season." But hey – in my defense, Richards and Pavelski did both finish tied with 41 for the season. Oh wait – that was the POINTS total for Richards, and JUST THE GOALS total for Pavelski! D'oh!!
Not that I can summon any realistic excuses for my woefully incorrect conclusion, but for what it's worth Pavelski did have a statistically lucky season. He finished with an 80.0% IPP at 5×5; and not only was that to