No Ramblings for me for several months, then I get to step up to the plate [wait – what's the equivalent of that in hockey parlance………maybe skate up to the faceoff dot?] to do ramblings twice in a matter of three weeks! Hopefully I didn't exhaust all of my good material the last time around.

 

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Less than a week ago I looked at the playoff schedule and was disappointed to see only two matches on the slate for Tuesday, especially since at that time Chicago had convincingly taken games one and two from Minnesota and the Penguins were leading the Rangers three games to one. I wondered if I'd even have any "last night" content to talk about in these ramblings.

Of course here we are just a few days later, with Tuesday's games among the most important of the playoffs so far.  Anything can happen come May in the NHL!

 

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I wasn't shocked to see the Rangers/Penguins series stretch to seven games, having picked the Pens in seven in the Expert Panel.  And in the end the Rangers simply wanted it more – that plus they had King Henrik in net, who was simply amazing.  Marc-Andre Fleury will escape this without the goat label that he's worn in recent years, although for what it's worth his Save % was 90.0% or below in five of the seven games.

 

For all the discussion about Sidney Crosby's struggles and how he was kept in check (literally and figuratively), I'm wondering if he's just worn out.  After all, he's played in 143 games since January 2013, after having only played 163 from October 2009 to May 2012.  My guess is he'll come back next season rested and with a big chip on his shoulder.

 

I think that Jussi Jokinen's playoffs (ten points, including seven goals) coupled with his regular season (57 points) probably leads to wiser heads prevailing and him re-signing.  The fact that Jokinen managed to top 55 points was a big deal, as can you guess the last Pens forward not named Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Kunitz, or Dupuis to reach that total?

 

You actually need to go back to 2008-09 and Petr Sykora (63 points), and even further to then 39 year old Mark Recchi in 2006-07 when it last occurred with Crosby and Malkin both playing 60+ games.  And let's not forget the numerous other failed experiments (Steve Sullivan, Bill Guerin, Miroslav Satan, and Ruslan Fedotenko) along the way.

 

Long story short, if Jokinen re-signs with the Pens, I'd expect 55-60ish points, although look for fewer than his 21 PPP from this season, which largely occurred due to assorted injuries.  But if Jokinen lands most anywhere else, pencil him in for only 40-50 points.

 

Not much else to say fantasy-wise, other than count on Niskanen signing elsewhere since he'll want too much money.  But no worries – the Pens have Paul Martin and Olii Maatta to absorb Niskanen's minutes and points.  Just don't figure Maatta for a huge breakout, as sophomore defensemen often struggle in today's NHL.  Instead, watch for big gains for him in 2015-16.  Patience grasshoppers……

 

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What's interesting about the Rangers is many of their "sandpaper" guys – like Brian Boyle, Daniel Carcillo, Dominic Moore, and even Benoit Pouliot – are set to be UFAs this summer.  Boy oh boy will their playoff performances help when it comes time for them to ink a new deal. 

 

But New York's real dilemma might be what to do with RFAs Mats Zuccarello and Derick Brassard, both of whom have fit really well into their respective roles.  I think each will be back, thanks to relief coming in the form of a compliance buyout of Brad Richards or – gasp – Rick Nash.

 

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Even if they don't win this series (it's 1-1 entering overtime in game six as I write this) let alone the Cup, the Blackhawks got a nice pat on the back by BusinessWeek recently naming them the "Smartest Spenders in Sports".

 

I’m also now convinced that Andrew Shaw is morphing into the next Troy Brouwer, as he received 2:37 of PP ice time per game during the regular season (more than Marian Hossa or Brandon Saad) and produced over two hits per game.  As long as Chicago stays as deep as they are you can't figure Shaw for more than 50 points per season; but if 25% of those points come on the power play and he produces hits to go along with a nice plus/minus, then he's a wise add for many fantasy teams.

 

And although this has been a season to forget for Nick Leddy (most recently, being scratched in game three), things might not be as bad as they seem, as he tallied 31 points in only 16:22 per game (one point per 43 minutes) compared to 37 points in 22:04 per game in 2011-12 (one point per 49 minutes). Leddy will be an RFA after 2014-15, so either the Blackhawks pay him enough to get him into a better spot in the line-up, or they'll move him to a team that will likely play him in more of a top four role.

 

In fantasy hockey the trick is deciding whether a player is a buy low or just someone on a downward spiral – I think Leddy is the former.

 

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Win or lose tonight and beyond, it was a nice showing by the Wild in 2013-14. Now I realize that only two Cup winning teams in the past ten years were backstopped by a Vezina-nominated goalie (Kings in 2012, with Jonathan Quick; Bruins in 2011, with Tim Thomas), but with the Western Conference having several very talented teams it seems like the Wild will need a bit better than a merely serviceable goalie to get them to the Cup Finals, no?

 

It'll be interesting to see if they head into nest season with Darcy Kuemper as the de facto #1A, making Nicklas Backstrom, who last played more than 51 games back in 2009-10 and has been on a steady decline since posting a 92.0% save percentage in each of his first three seasons, the 1B. I'm thinking yes.

 

But like Columbus (who I'll talk about below) and Dallas, I think Minnesota is one of those teams where you can confidently figure on at least a handful of players seeing a nice increase in their productions next season, including Charlie Coyle, Mikael Granlund, Jonas Brodin, and, the sneaky sleeper I like the most, Jared Spurgeon, who had a nice preview of things to come in getting seven points in nine games at the end of March and into early April.

 

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If the Wild are smart, they won't re-sign Matt Moulson, who's my early choice for biggest UFA bust. Just to clarify, I'm talking about a fantasy bust, not a money bust – that is, production versus expectations rather than production versus salary (although Moulson might be bad for both). Take Victor Stalberg for example – he was a "real life" hockey bust this season, but not so much a fantasy bust since fantasy GMs didn't expect production from him.

 

While playing for a new contract, Moulson put up only 45 points in 74 games since leaving the Islanders. That's mighty disappointing, unless news emerges that he's been playing through an injury even before missing the bulk of the Wild/Blackhawks series.

 

I'm not saying Moulson's stats will plummet to such an extent that he'll end up the second coming of post-Mario Rob Brown; but unless he gets first line time with a top five or so NHL center I see him struggling to get 55 points, maybe even 50.

 

Speaking of Rob Brown, here's an interesting link – one I hadn't seen – of him talking about….well…..you probably can guess:

 

 

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Let's talk a bit about playoff ice time. Most players will see higher averages in the playoffs, since no game in the regular season can last more than 65 minutes whereas in the playoffs sudden death overtime can drag on well beyond that. And in fact, only one first round series – Rangers/Flyers – had fewer than two overtime games, and every second round match-up has featured an overtime contest.

 

Given this, how can we use playoff ice time numbers for future fantasy planning? Well, if it's that much easier to average more ice time in the playoffs, then it's not a great sign when a player – particularly a younger player whose exact fantasy value for next season is up for debate – has lower ice time in the playoffs than he did in the regular season.

 

So which younger players saw (or so far have seen) their Ice Time go down in this year's playoffs? Some notable examples include: Valeri Nichuskin (13:27 in the playoff; 14:58 in the regular season, when he had no month with under 14:02 of Ice Time), Gustav Nyquist (15:22 in the playoffs; 16:51 in the regular season, including three separate months with 17:22 or more per game), Tyler Toffoli (12:16 in the playoffs, versus 12:57 per game in the regular season), Carl Hagelin (14:55 in the playoffs; 15:31 in the regular season), and Hampus Lindholm (18:12 in the playoffs; 19:25 per game in the regular season, and no month with less than 19:02).

 

But don't look at this data and panic if you own one of these players. When a team's season is truly on the line it's often the case that younger players – especially more offensively focused ones – get passed over in favor of scrappy, more defensive-oriented veterans. But still – this is something to chew on.

 

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Shifting to goalies – it turns out that only one (Kari Lehtonen) ended up playing in 65 regular season games for 2013-14. Of course that had a lot to do with Sochi and this being the first 82 game season in two years, but that's still pretty amazing considering that in 2011-12 ten goalies hit the 65+ games played mark.

 

What's also interesting is that of the eight goalies who played 60+ games, all but one (Mike Smith) was on a playoff team. But only two of those seven playoff teams (Penguins and Rangers) made it past round one, with the other five (Dallas, San Jose, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia) each losing. Now of course Ben Bishop (63 games played) and Steve Mason (61 games played) either missed some or all of round one, and Jonathan Quick (who had 65+ games each of the previous two full seasons) was hurt for the early part of 2013-14, so there's that.

 

Even still, the magic question is where this leaves us for 2014-15 and beyond. Will teams look at the likes of Boston (Tuukka Rask had 58 games played) as well as Chicago and Monteal (Corey Crawford and Carey Price both had 59), and decide to rest their clear cut #1 guys maybe a handful of extra games next season in hopes of faring better in the playoffs? My sense is yes, which of course would have significant fantasy implications.

 

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Although their playoff eliminations might seem like "old news" by now, I feel like there are some key takeaways for Columbus and San Jose that will impact fantasy teams for 2014-15 and beyond.

 

As alluded to above, I think that Columbus officially flipped the switch and will be in the playoff mix every year going forward, and aren't far away from being able to do some real damage. I say this not only because of the players on the squad now and in the Blue Jackets system, but also because I believe that Jarmo Kekalainen has the makings of a top GM.

 

After all, Kekalainen's track record of spotting talent is amazing, from Marian Hossa and Ray Emery (when he worked in player personnel for Ottawa) to much of the now core players for St. Louis from when he was Assistant GM and Director of Amateur Scouting with the Blues. This video is now almost a year old, but still worth watching to witness Kekalainen's combination of wisdom, decisiveness and hockey sense, coupled with a willingness to actually listen while others on his staff give advice:

 

 

And special recognition goes to Brandon Dubinsky, who elevated his game to yet another level in the playoffs (point per game scoring plus nearly seven hits per game, all while not even 100% healthy).  I think not only will he carry momentum into 2014-15, but he'll end up being one of those guys who plays in the top six for years and produces 45-65 points per season along with amazing peripherals.

 

Taking a closer look at this season, Dubinsky tallied 50 points in 76 games, plus 236 Hits. To put that in perspective, there were only two players who ended up with both more Hits and Points than Dubinsky: Milan Lucic (59 points, 240 Hits) and David Backes (57 points, 273 Hits). And think of how much more it would likely take to land either of those guys in a league that counts Hits? Heck, look at Ryan Callahan, who had 189 hits in 60 games but only 36 points yet probably (and wrongly) will go way earlier than Dubinsky in one year drafts in multi-cat leagues for 2014-15.

 

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For San Jose, the fantasy spotlight shines in squarely in net. Alex Stalock will be back, what with the Sharks having bent over backwards to play him enough over the last quarter to give him the 26 career games needed to avoid him becoming a Group 6 UFA. But does Niemi return; and if so, is he still the undisputed #1?

 

Niemi is either great (1.74 GAA, 93.6% in 39 wins) or terrible (3.52 GAA, 87.4% in 26 losses), with no in between. And although he had three different months with a GAA of 2.21 or less, his GAA is each of the other four months ranged from 2.65 to 2.90.

 

Some might assume that Niemi's lack of a long stretch of consecutive starts over the last chunk of the 2013-14 season might've hurt his momentum and mojo. But I'm not buying that, as he still finished with 64 games played and posted his highest monthly Save % in March while sharing time with Stalock.

 

Niemi won a Cup for Chicago, and now at age 30 shouldn't be on the decline; but should he be the #1 goalie for an aging team with a shrinking window to snag a Stanley Cup of its own? On paper he's more of an ideal than Stalock, as although rookie or near rookie goalies have won Cups in the past decade (Cam Ward, Niemi himself), you don't tend to see a team in "win now" mode turning over the reins to a virtually untested goalie.

 

But Niemi's exact fate might ultimately have less to do with the Sharks situation as it does with the lack of a clear upgrade for San Jose on the UFA market. Maybe the Sharks kick the tires on Ryan Miller, who many think will prefer a West Coast team due to his actress wife? If so, then Niemi's contract (one year, $3.8M) would certainly seem movable to a team (maybe Washington or St. Louis?) who loses out on Miller but needs an upgrade in net.

 

In the end, the most important goalie movement this summer might just be two non-UFAs in Niemi and, as I discussed in my last ramblings, Cam Ward.

 

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Another interesting fact about the 2013-14 Sharks is their highest scoring defenseman (Dan Boyle – 36 points) was only tied for 33rd in NHL defenseman scoring. And all but one other playoff team had at least one defenseman score more than 36 points (Cam Fowler had 36, but in only 70 games compared to Boyle's 75), so clearly this is an issue for San Jose as well.

 

But guess what – the crop of UFA defensemen is as weak as UFA goalies. Do they overpay for Matt Niskanen, or let Boyle walk and grab a different veteran (like Marek Zidlicky or maybe Andrei Markov)? I'm guessing they go with the "devil they know" and keep Boyle, who actually finished the season with some decent momentum (11 points in his final 21 games). Plus, I think that Matt Irwin (who started and finished slow but posted 12 points in a 23 game stretch during December and January) could be an offensive catalyst as soon as next year.

 

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Shifting gears but still staying with defensemen, in looking back at data from 2013-14 I noticed several young defensemen finished with very respectable points per game numbers despite being in and out of the line-up (either in the AHL or as a healthy scratch).

 

I'm talking about the likes of Eric Gelinas, who had 29 points in 60 games (0.48 point per game, which was better than Dan Boyle and Drew Doughty), Nick Holden, who had 25 points in 54 games (0.46 points per game – better than Brian Campbell or John Carlson), Sami Vatanen, who had 21 points in 48 games (0.44 points per game – better than Christian Ehrhoff or Slava Voynov), Patrick Wiercioch, who had 23 points in 53 games (0.43 points per game – better than Jason Garrison or Jack Johnson), and Michael Kostka, who had 11 points in 28 games (0.39 points per game – better than Paul Martin or Matt Carle).

 

If you go back to the last full season of 2011-12 and look for defensemen who, like each of these guys, (1) had previously played in 50 or fewer NHL games, (2) suited up for between only 25 and 60 games that season for reasons other than injury, and (3) averaged more than 0.35 points per game during that season, there was exactly one – Slava Voynov.

 

Vatanen and Gelinas are likely the cream of the crop for keeper leagues, but who's the player to own for just 2014-15? My quick take is that Wiercioch is the best bet, primarily because he has by far the most NHL experience but also since he took his 2013-14 scratches in stride and played well when he drew into the lineup. Teams like to see that.

 

I think Kostka was a tease, especially since eight of his points came in four games. I also wonder whether Vatanen will go through yet another season of 50 or 60 games before becoming a regular. I'm undecided on Holden (he's 26 years old with a two way deal, so what happens if he starts slow?) and Gelinas (New Jersey has a terrible recent track record for offensive defensemen – just ask Adam Larsson).

 

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One last note  – tough break (literally) for Dmitri Orlov, who apparently broke his arm during the World Championships.  In my write-up after Adam Oates and George McPhee were ushered out of Washington I listed Orlov as a player who'd be helped by a new regime.  Even if he's technically healthy for training camp, this is the kind of injury where I'd be worried about lingering physical (or even mental) effects, which means Orlov probably isn't as much of a good bet to break out as he might've been otherwise.