Hey folks – I'm stepping in on short notice for Dobber, who’s still recovering from whatever bug he picked up in Cuba. And unlucky me – there were no Tuesday games to supply giftwrapped content. Right about now I'm really wishing I'd saved a few of my tidbits from my last two ramblings…..

 

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Wednesday is game two for LA/Chicago. If it was any other team but the Kings I'd say this was pretty much a must win, but let's not forget that LA made it here despite losing three in a row in both round one and round two!

 

One prediction I'm comfortable making is that LA's offense won't be able to explode like it did against the Sharks and Ducks, as Chicago is simply too well-oiled of a machine. Jonathan Quick will need to be the true difference maker, and I just don't think he can do enough to see LA take four of the next six.

 

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More and more the Blackhawks are shaping up to be this decade's 1995-2005 Red Wings, right down to Corey Crawford being Chicago's version of Chris Osgood – a very good goalie who'll likely never have jaw dropping peripherals but shines in the playoffs. Osgood's career regular season GAA and SV% were 2.49 and 90.5% (744 games – Vezina finalist just once) but in the playoffs those numbers jumped to 2.09 and 91.6%. And already Crawford is following a similar pattern, with regular season numbers of 2.36 and 91.4% (zero Vezina nominations so far) versus playoff stats of 2.01 and 92.7%.

 

Long story short – be grateful if you have Crawford on your fantasy squad because he won't ever hurt you. But he's also unlikely to become a triple threat (i.e., Wins, GAA, SV%) like Rask or Lundqvist.

 

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Not much to discuss about Canadiens/Rangers other than which poor substitute for Carey Price will be thrust into the net for Thursday's Game three (for the record, I'm on team Budaj).

 

Here's part of what I wrote before the series in USA Today's NHL Caucus feature (I've been contributing for DobberHockey) in response to the question of what will be the most exciting in-game match-ups for the conference finals?

 

The Rangers’ scorers (Brad Richards, Martin St. Louis, Rick Nash, Derek Stepan) against the Canadiens’ grinders (Brandon Prust, Dale Weise, and Michael Bournival). Montreal’s checking forwards managed to hold David Krejci (who was the leading scorer in the entire playoffs last season!) to just two points in seven games, and Milan Lucic and Jarome Iginla to just three points each. Meanwhile, those four Rangers forwards combined for only three goals and five assists in the entire seven game series against the Penguins.

Well, two games in and those four Rangers have already combined for eleven points (three more than in all of round two's seven games), so there you go.

 

What's interesting is while the injury to Price no doubt gives the Rangers a huge edge they're of course glad to have, it won't be ideal to sweep Montreal and then have to wait for Chicago or LA if that series stretches to six or seven games. After all, a long wait could quell a lot of New York's emotional momentum. Plus, as the Rangers showed by advancing past the second round despite playing an unheard of five playoff games in seven days, sometimes it's just better to keep rolling forward rather than stop to ponder the enormity of the situation.

 

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In terms of fantasy tidbits for Montreal and LA (I covered the Rangers and Blackhawks in my Ramblings last week), the big area I'm interested in for Montreal is what happens if Andrei Markov leaves via free agency. Will someone replace his 43 points, or will it become the P.K. Subban show much like it's the Erik Karlsson extravaganza in Ottawa?

 

I'm guessing the latter, especially since once Subban signs his inevitably enormous RFA deal he'll be counted on even more to carry the team, most likely meaning he gets 27:00+ per game like Karlsson (maybe more like 26:00+ given Subban's PIMs). In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if no other Habs defenseman scores even 30 points next season.

 

I also think 2014-15 will be the year when the Kings really pass the torch from the likes of Justin Williams (43 points in 82 regular season games) and Mike Richards (41 points in 82 regular season) to Dwight King and Tyler Toffoli. Look for each of King and Toffoli to hit the 40 point mark, with Toffoli having a decent shot at a 50+ point campaign, while Williams and Richards descend further into fantasy unworthiness.

 

Here's a brief AHL highlights package of Toffoli to give us a sign of what's soon to come at the NHL level:

 

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Quite a roller coaster week if you own Alex Ovechkin in a league! The news about his injury literally went from terrible, to unclear, to apparently not bad, all in the span of less than 48 hours.

 

I've played fantasy hockey for 20 years (wow – that feels weird to write), and in that time access to player news has changed so much. In the mid-90s (back when just retired Radek Bonk and Miroslav Satan were NHL youngsters) I'd call a team's media relations representative and say I was an out of town journalist or fan and then prod them for injury information or to find out which goalie was starting. As if that isn't LOLtastic enough, this was a league where I'd make roster moves and pick-ups by calling a toll free number; oh, and the stats and standings would be faxed (!) to me weekly!

 

Of course now we have Twitter, blogs, crawlers, and top notch fantasy sites like our own DobberHockey. But have we reached a point of too much information too soon? I'm sure I wasn't alone during 2013-14 in putting a guy on the bench because initial reports said he was seriously injured, only to see him on the ice for his team's next game. More news quickly is great, but the urge to get a scoop – or just clicks in general – often leads to pure speculation or misinformation (cough cough, Nick Kypreos, cough cough).

 

No matter what your sources are or how you go about deciding which injury reports to trust and when, make sure to use the DobberHockey Injury Discussion Forum to get helpful links or, if nothing else, to find folks who also own an injured player to share in your sorrow.

 

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Lots of speculation in Pittsburgh about what other shoes might drop. Dan Bylsma is all but assured to be ushered out the door once a new Penguins GM is named, although chances are almost as good that he'll find a job before this time next year. Who knows – if Vancouver is patient enough they might be able to land him?

 

As for rumors of trading the likes of Kris Letang, Marc-Andre Fleury or Evgeni Malkin, of course when a team has three of the top 16 cap hits like the Pens do, it becomes necessary to at least kick the tires on trades when you disappoint year after year. But when you're talking about Letang, who's just months removed from a stroke, and Fleury, who posted a SV% over 90.0% for the first time in the playoffs since 2008-09 yet still couldn't be a difference maker when it counted, a trade might be wishful thinking.

 

Seeing Malkin elsewhere would be so much fun to watch as a fan and a fantasy enthusiast. The closest parallel I can recall from the fairly recent past is when Peter Forsberg and Joe Sakic were separated in 2005, although by then injuries had already taken their toll on Foppa.

 

Plus, for whatever reason, the Malkin we've seen of late with a healthy Crosby just seems to be a shell of what he could be – and has been – when Crosby has been out. To me, those two playing against each other would be like watching a wrestling match between two former longtime tag team partners:

 

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Similar shake-up rumors are swirling in Boston. Don't expect to see front office or coaching changes, but be prepared for a few familiar faces to no longer roam the ice for the Bs come October.

 

Since I'm local to the area, I've pretty much heard it all in terms of rumors and speculation (most are summarized pretty well here), but where I'd expect the most fantasy-impacting changes to occur is among the forward ranks.

 

Marchand's schtick has grown old in Boston, as has the fact that he's a dud on the PP. And the reality is if you remove his 12 points in six games and five points in three games stretches during 2013-14, he'd be left with merely 36 points in 73 games (i.e., below 0.5 points per game). And before you wonder if another team would take him, keep in mind that Matt Cooke is still gainfully employed in this league. Not the best comparison I realize; but you get what I mean.

 

Their other major question at forward is what to do about UFA Jarome Iginla. Can he bring to the table what Teemu Selanne did for the Ducks between 2006 and 2011, or might this have been the last season he even tastes 60+ points?

 

I think he returns; after all, both sides were willing to sign a one-year incentive laden deal last summer, so why not again? But even if he's back, will he keep his spot with David Krecji and Milan Lucic? I know the thinking has been the Bs need a big body to complete that line, but I actually went to Boston Philadelphia on April 5th where Eriksson lined up with Krecji and Lucic for nearly the entire game (Iginla was scratched), and Eriksson proceeded to dish out four assists and was all over the ice.

 

What's also interesting is there was a lot of talk of Eriksson not meshing well with Patrice Bergeron; but thanks to the Frozen Pool resource we can see that Eriksson actually scored 12 of his 25 even strength points (i.e., 48%) with Bergeron despite those two spending only about 40% of Eriksson's even strength shifts together. So maybe Eriksson lands there?

 

One thing is for sure – Eriksson is a nice sleeper for 2014-15, given his 17 points in his final 23 games and 18:58 of Ice Time per game for April.

 

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I'm not sure how many of you read my weekly Cage Match column (by the lack of comments, I often wonder….hint hint), but this week one player I'm covering is Patric Hornqvist, and in doing my research I looked into whether there'll be a "Laviolette effect" in Nashville that sees their top six forwards get a big boost in points.

 

Take a look at this excerpt from the column:

 

Laviolette had two coaching gigs since 2003 – Carolina and Philadelphia. It's hard to gauge his effect in Carolina, since he took over midseason in 2003-04 and then the lockout resulted in cancelation of the 2004-05 season. But we can compare Philadelphia's production in 2008-09 (the last full season before Laviolette arrived) and 2010-11 (the team's first full season under Laviolette).

 

What we see is the Flyers went from 264 goals and a PP conversion percentage of 22.5% in 2008-09 to 259 goals and a 16.6% PP conversion rate in 2010-11. And while there were four 60+ point scorers in both seasons, two tallied 80+ in 2008-09 while the highest point total for 2010-11 was 76. There was a single 40+ point defenseman in both seasons; however, three defensemen had 30+ points in 2010-11 versus only one in 2008-09 (although Chris Pronger had 25 in 50 games).

Hmmmmm……..Beyond that, I noticed (and also pointed out in the column) Nashville's power play was 12th in conversion this season, 17th in 2012-13, and FIRST in 2011-12! Maybe things weren't as bad as they seemed under Trotz, and might not improve significantly under Laviolette?

 

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Sticking with Nashville, but shifting to defense – I think Seth Jones could be a fantasy disappointment for at least the next few seasons. Why? Because Roman Josi (40 points in 72 games, including 28 in his final 42) might end up being the Brian Rafalski to Shea Weber's Niklas Lidstrom, leaving Jones as Niklas "odd man out" Kronwall.

 

I'm not talking about playing styles in making that comparison; what I mean is although Rafalski was a fine defenseman, he was clearly made better in terms of production by being paired with Lidstrom. And if I'm a Jones owner, I worry that Jones will end up being the Kronwall to Weber's Lidstrom and Josi's Rafalski – forced to wait in the wings (pun intended), and with lower production to show for it.

 

After all, in the four years Rafalski was a Red Wing, Kronwall put up 128 points in 287 games, for a 0.44 points per game average (i.e., 36 point full season scoring pace). In 2010-11, which was the first year after Rafalski left, Kronwall actually posted 36 points in 82 games; but in 2012-13 and 2013-14 Kronwall averaged a far more robust 0.61 points per game average (i.e., 50 point full season pace).

 

Now of course Jones has otherworldly potential that even a player as great as Kronwall didn't; but it's at least a "back of the mind" concern for a Jones owner right now. If he's forced to take a back seat to a top pairing, then don't count on him for much more than 40 points – if even that – any time soon.

 

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How many of you are using advanced metrics to help make your fantasy decisions? I raise this because I think we're nearing the point where a number of these metrics will become heavily relied upon not just by writers and bloggers, but by most GMs in even moderately competitive fantasy leagues. You can look to baseball as a model, where at first just a few advanced metrics trickled into the conversation, and then before we knew it dozens were ubiquitous.

 

Why do I raise this? Because I'm sure some of you don't use these stats now, and might even be trying to resist learning about them because they sound overly complicated and might not give you much of an edge. Heck – I'll admit that until maybe 18 months ago I was sticking mostly to the tried and true basics.

 

But the reality is you owe it to yourself – and your fantasy team – to at least learn what these advanced metrics mean, and then determine which ones make sense for you to incorporate into your fantasy assessments. And there's really no better time than the offseason to take the plunge.

 

My personal recommendation is to start with the most widely used metrics, like Corsi/Fenwick, PDO, and IPP. I use the latter two in my Cage Match column, and they serve as a great indication of luckiness, which tells you the extent to which breakout numbers should be relied upon and, on the flip side, whether a slump might've been a case of just plain bad luck.

 

How and where should you start? I suggest reading Thomas Drance's ramblings on Sundays, as he's very conversant in these kinds of metrics. See how he uses them and bookmark the sites that he references; then visit those sites to do some research on your players. Within a month or so you should be able to truly judge the value of these metrics for yourself.

 

Of course if you're in one of my leagues, ignore everything I just said….

 

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Lastly, let's talk about compliance buyouts, since now that all but four teams have officially entered their offseason, speculation will center around which teams will buy out which players. Some April thoughts are here, and there's a thread in the DobberHockey Forums about the topic as well.

 

Here's the key – if 2013-14 was any indication, post-buyout life won't be pretty for those on the 2014 list. The highest point total for any 2013 bought out player was Vincent Lecavalier's 37 points (although Mikael Grabovski's posted 35 in only 58 games). The news was a bit less grim among defensemen, as Tom Gilbert cobbled together 28 points in 73 games.

 

But let's rewind to end of summer 2013 – I know that Lecavalier and Grabovski were both drafted by poolies with realistic expectations for at least moderate success. They then proceeded to lay an egg. And I think the same pattern is likely to happen this season, except instead of those guys swap in the likes of Marty Havlat or Eric Cole.

 

Teams might do a poor job of deciding who to sign and for how much; but it's a lot easier to know when a player just doesn't have anything useful left in the tank. And while bought out players will tell anyone who'll listen that it's a wake-up call and they're more motivated than ever to prove their old team wrong, the fact is those players are getting money from their old deal, plus whatever new money they sign for, so it's not like they're playing for their supper.

 

Just way too many red flags if you ask me, so be sure not to drink the kool-aid when it comes to bought out players possibly bouncing back on a new team.

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