June 09, 2014

Dobber

2014-06-09

I released the Fantasy Prospects Report last week, but there will be a big update for it 48 hours after the Cup is won…which could be, uh, Friday. This is my eighth annual Prospects Report. My best one.

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If NHL hockey teams were like houses from the Game of Thrones

 

Ondrej Palat signed a three-year extension with TB, for reportedly $10 million. That’s probably enough scratch to ensure that his spot on a scoring line is secure – unless and until he goes on a very lengthy cold streak. Bodes well for his continued success next season, though I would project a tiny decline in numbers for Year 2 (with a huge bounce-back in his third year).

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I know Thom touched on this yesterday, but I just think it’s a crazy fact – the Kings lead the series 2-0 and yet have held a lead for exactly zero seconds. How awesome would it be to have a team win a series without ever holding a lead? And on a related note, why not just spot the Kings a goal and let them try to protect the lead going into the third? Seems like the only way to beat them these days.

I really like Benoit Pouliot‘s fit on that Brassard – Zuccarello line, but the dumb penalties have to stop. In fact, if the Rangers didn’t re-sign him in the summer and signed a similar player who is not as dumb when it comes to penalties, they’d be further ahead. He’s coming off his best season, statistically – especially when you take his season from December 1 onwards. But he’s had 11 minors in the postseason and I’m guessing seven or eight of them were terrible. If he does re-sign with New York and Zuccarello and Brassard can stay relatively healthy (and that’s an issue too), then I can see Pouliot flirt with 50 points. If he’s cut loose and joins another team, yet again, then I doubt he tops what he just did.

Should King (of the Kings) have been called for interference on the King, Saturday? Maybe. King had position and was planted, but blocked King Henrik from moving over…but then King, Dwight that is, was blocked from moving out of the way (not that he wanted to, or was trying to). Anyway, I can see it being gray an area for a penalty, but no question the goal should have been waved off and a faceoff out of the zone. I do wish the unbiased former Ranger Glenn Healey (who was frothing at the mouth about it) would relax.

Here is that interference call so you can take another look at it:

Even Lundqvist said it wasn’t a penalty, but…

“I don’t think it’s a penalty but you’ve got to stop the play if the goalie can’t move in his crease,” Lundqvist said. “And it’s not like I’m outside the crease. I play pretty deep. Just be consistent with it.” (from TSN.ca)

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Gary Bettman said that concussions were down this season (from 78 to 53), but that players were hiding them more and at times not following league protocol. He also noted that the sky is blue and that grass is green. Drew Miller explains it best:

“Guys downplay the symptoms or don’t report them because of job security and they don’t want to lose their spot,” Miller said. “And, guys want to keep playing because they want help their team. In the back of our minds, too, you don’t want other teams to know you have a head injury.”

Obviously, this situation is worse in the playoffs, since players don’t want to miss those games under any circumstances. But the regular season situation impacts fantasy hockey. The star players, I’m guessing, tend to follow protocol a little more. Jobs are secure. But the rookies, the sophomores, the fourth-liners, the agitators and the pugilists will tend to try to play through. You saw that with Cody Hodgson a couple of years ago when he stumbled back to the bench after a huge hit…but kept playing. If the same hit happens next season? Hodgson goes to the dark room and follows procedure.

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Would you buy out Marc-Andre Fleury and sign Ryan Miller if you were Jim Rutherford? Not me. Fleury’s a better goaltender. That’s not to pat Fleury on the back, but actually to insult Miller. Not high on his talent at all anymore and haven’t been since this:

Fleury was not the reason for the Penguins getting eliminated this year. There is a fit out there for Ryan Miller, that would see his fantasy numbers flourish. But on most teams, I think you’d be disappointed in the stats he puts up.

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Do you think PK Subban gets an offer sheet from another NHL team this summer (a la Shea Weber)? I think there’s a better than even chance. But I also think that the Habs match it.

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Mike Richards looks real good on a checking line. And while he’s a better player than his 41 points this past season showed, his 80-point and 75-point seasons with Philadelphia were illusions. I consider him a 55-point guy now who can sub in on a scoring line, but adds an excellent element of offense on a third line.

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In Game 1 of the Calder Cup Final, Texas beat St. John’s 6-3. For St. John’s, Winnipeg stud prospect Josh Morrissey picked up an assist, giving him nine points in 16 playoff games and showing why he can force his way onto a roster regardless of the depth chart that is (supposedly) ahead of him. Here is what the Fantasy Prospects Report has to say about Morrissey:

Morrissey continued to show that he was one of the best offensive defenseman of the 2013 Entry Draft after tallying 73 points in 59 games. After being ousted in the first round of the WHL playoffs with the Raiders, Morrissey got the call up to the St. John's Icecaps and has continued his strong play against bigger men. Morrissey is best known for his skating game as he uses it to his advantage to control the play. This future power-play quarterback has a ton of compete in him and isn't afraid to get physical. His defense will still need improvement for him to crack a primary offensive role in the future. Still eligible for junior, it is too bad that he is ineligible to play for the Icecaps instead as he proved he is ready for the next step. Don't bet on him cracking the Jets roster next year, as they have seven defensemen signed – five of those on one-way contracts. Poolies, keep this in mind: remember last year when you were reluctant to take Jacob Trouba due to the Winnipeg logjam? Well how do you feel about that now? Don’t make the same mistake twice. Morrissey is not in the Trouba-realm, but he is elite and he’ll find his way quickly.

UpsideKeith Yandle (15-40-55+, 60+ PIM)

3YP – (10-25-35, 50 PIM)

Certainty (NHL, Upside) – 90%, 50%

Expected arrival – 2015-2016.

DobberHockey Draft Advice – A middle-round option.

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The other impressive prospect in this series – Dallas’ Brett Ritchie. Seven points in nine playoff games, but more impressive is his shot total – 248 of them in 77 regular season and playoff games this year. It’s his first pro season.

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Those of you who are active in the forum right now, and those who have been hesitant thanks to the three-month ‘dark times of which we no longer speak’ that spanned from mid-November through mid-February, would be interested in this. I had been putting in missing posts from the dark times and probably got about halfway by this weekend…but I gave up. Instead, I went through a few random posts over the course of those weeks and, between that and my experience with putting in the first half of the posts manually, I had a pretty good idea of who had been active and approximately how active. So I went through those users – about 50 of them – one-by-one, and just boosted their post count. Just a rough estimate, but you’ll see your post count get bumped from anywhere between 10 posts and 800 posts. So your number will not better reflect what your actual post count should be. If I’m off by a lot on yours, by all means let me know and I will fix. You can send me a PM in the forum.

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Where will Ryan Kesler go and will he be traded before the season starts or will Vancouver start the year with this bitter man on their team?

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12 T.B vs FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12 UTA vs ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12 WSH vs L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12 EDM vs OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12 COL vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency EDM Players
24.0 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS CONNOR MCDAVID ZACH HYMAN
14.3 VASILY PODKOLZIN KASPERI KAPANEN LEON DRAISAITL
13.8 COREY PERRY ADAM HENRIQUE VIKTOR ARVIDSSON

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson: Short Shifts – EBUP (Emergency Backup Podcaster)

Elan comes in to save the day and records with Shams to bring you all the fantasy news you need to know as we near the Christmas break. They cover the fantasy impact of the Kaapo Kakko trade and the nearing return of Alex Ovechkin and Rasmus Dahlin from injury. After that, they cover many […]

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