I'll be handling Tuesday Ramblings for the next three weeks, so mark your calendars for all the must read hockey analysis you can find…………..in June. Wait; don't stop reading! I'll make these worth your while – trust me!

 

*

 

Monday night saw the Stanley Cup Final shift to the Big Apple, and the Kings move one game away from matching the Blackhawks – who they eliminated last round – in winning two Cups in the past five seasons. How strange would it be to go from the Kings being stretched to the full seven games in every previous round, to a sweep in the Final?!

 

The reality is the Rangers had what I felt was an insurmountable task in trying to win four games before the Kings did so. Really – that's all the Cup Final is, a race to four wins. And although the Kings have faced elimination in every series this far and have to be exhausted (more on that below), it seems like no matter what teams throw at them they pick themselves up and find a way to win that race to four. And although in the last of my USA Today predictions I gave a coaching edge to Alain Vigneault (hey – I still like my reasoning), my other predictions (Kings winning the series and Doughty for Conn Smythe) look to be in pretty solid shape, although Jeff Carter is certainly making a run at the Conn Smythe.

 

*

 

In terms of the Rangers, it was a pretty decent game for John Moore, who managed four shots and one hit in 16:24 of ice time, including 2:18 of PP time (10th best on the team) to go along with 1:46 of shorthanded duty.  Oh wait – my mistake; that was the stat line for Rick Nash!!

 

I just can't see how Nash will be in a Rangers sweater come 2014-15.  Perhaps he's bought out instead of the long-rumored Brad Richards.  But maybe – and this this just pure speculation by me – he gets moved to another team for their baggage.  Can I start (or if already started, fan the flames of) a Rick Nash for Kris Letang trade rumor?  Nash is owed $7.8M over the next four seasons, while Letang gets a bit less per season ($7.2M) but is signed through 2021-22.  I get that each has a NMC or NTC, and there are lots of other factors involved; but hey, stranger things have happened….

 

An especially forgettable game also from Carl Hagelin, who skated just 10:24, saw only 19 seconds of PP time, was -2, and took a pretty poor penalty.  He might not even crack the 40 point mark next season, and could find himself elsewhere (maybe even overseas) after his current deal expires following the 2014-15 campaign.

 

And although Ryan McDonagh's future role with the Rangers was never in doubt, it's worth noting that after starting with zero points in his first ten playoff games and with pressure mounting with every contest since then, he now has 16 points in his last 13 playoff games. We're witnessing McDonagh make the leap to uber-elite fantasy defenseman (assuming he wasn't there already).

 

*

 

Following up on what I teased above, by my count – and as I noted when making my pick in the Expert's Panel – the Kings entered the Cup final having played 169 games since January 2013 (not counting preseason contests or Sochi).

 

While LA should still coast into the playoffs in 2014-15, I worry about how this'll affect their fantasy stats, particularly for guys north of 30 (Justin Williams and rumored buyout candidate Mike Richards) as well as workhorse Drew Doughty, who's scored only a handful fewer points in these playoffs than he did in double the games during the 2012-13 regular season.

 

In the end, although most poolies know enough not to count on Kings players for big scoring, things might be worse next season than usual for at least some of their core players given all their mileage over the past two seasons. But at the same time, that should prompt the team to be even more open to leaning heavily on younger players, including the likes of Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson, Jake Muzzin, and Alec Martinez, each of whom should be poised to have a solid (if not breakout) campaign.

 

*

 

One last Cup-related tidbit – Puck Daddy had a post on the TV ratings for game one. Of course the numbers were great, what with the New York and Los Angeles markets represented by their hometown teams. But it was interesting to see the viewership in other cities. Sure – Buffalo was high due for obvious reasons, but you've got to love the hockey passion in Boston, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Denver, and Detroit.

 

And although certainly a non-nominal portion of the Las Vegas viewership likely came from those with a financially-based rooting interest in the game, perhaps this'll help steer Gary Bettman (what an apropos name) more toward placing a NHL team in Vegas before the decade ends.

 

*

 

Tampa went ahead and locked up Ondrej Palat for $10M over three seasons on Monday. I basically agree with Dobber's mid-day thoughts from Monday's Ramblings in that on paper it's a smart deal for both player and team – Palat gets rewarded for his impressive rookie campaign, while Tampa gets to see if he's the genuine article before really opening its wallet.

 

One key that Palat owners should realize is his 5×5 PDO for 2013-14 was 1040 (1030 is considered the very top end of normal). To put that in perspective, only five NHL forwards skated in 75+ games and had a 5×5 PDO of 1040+ for 2013-14: Nathan MacKinnon (1040), Milan Lucic & Ryan Getzlaf (1041), Jarome Iginla (1049), and David Krejci (1053), and for what it's worth PDOs for Bruins forwards always run high.

 

While this contract all but assures Palat a long leash in terms of his place in the Lightning top six (as Dobber also noted), I'm worried that he's just not up to a repeat performance of his 2013-14 magic. I'd look for 50-55 points from Palat in 2014-15, with arguably as much likelihood of him falling below 50 points in 2014-11 as climbing above 60 points.

 

More on advanced metrics below.

 

*

 

Here's an interesting stat to chew on. There's only one player who scored at a point per game or better in 40+ games each of the last three seasons. Any guesses? It's actually Claude Giroux. Not who I expected, although for what it's worth Stamkos and Crosby would've likely qualified had each not missed significant time to injury in one of the three seasons (Crosby in 2011-12, Stamkos in 2013-14).

 

In a similar vein, and as pointed out in my recent Patrick Kane vs. Phil Kessel Cage Match piece, there've been three players who scored 30+ goals in each of the past five full seasons. The first two are pretty easy to guess (Alex Ovechkin, Phil Kessel) but the third was eye opening to me – Patrick Marleau.

 

Lastly, there's just one defenseman who's scored 44 or more points in each of the past five full seasons. And would you believe it's Mark Streit?!

 

The common theme is some players find a way to score year in and year out, and you need to be sure not to discount them on draft day in favor of a player who might be the next big thing, but who also could end up either never taking the leap or not doing so for a couple of seasons. Make a note of guys who find a way to produce every season (look at Grioux and Streit, who both dug themselves into a big scoring hole early on), since although nothing lasts forever it's wise to get these kinds of guys on your roster, particularly in one-year leagues.

 

*

 

While we're on the subject of consistent producers, news is starting to heat up around Andrei Markov. One moment he's all but set to re-sign, and then the next he's poised to test the market. I think when push comes to shove he'll sign elsewhere since the Habs are – and will remain – P.K. Subban's team until well after Markov retires.

 

What's interesting about Markov is if you take away his essentially lost 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons, he's tallied 330 points in his last 478 games, for a jaw dropping 55 point per 82 game scoring pace. Of course the problem with Markov has always been seeing him actually play 82 games; in fact, during a three year stretch from 2009 to 2012 he played 65 games, and I don't mean 65 games each season – I mean 65 games TOTAL!

 

But fast forward to now, and he's missed only one game in the past two seasons. And while he's not the same player who put up 122 points over a two season stretch from 2007 to 2009, he did finish with 43 this past season despite playing second fiddle to P.K. Subban. Can he tally 45-50+ on the right team in 2014-15? That's the magical question.

 

I get that as of now Markov is a 35 year old who could find a way to hurt his knee while doing his taxes; but because he basically had three lost seasons, it's safe to say he has less overall mileage than your average 35 year old. And from a fantasy perspective, I'll take his knees at 80% over the best that most defensemen in the NHL can offer.

 

To me, the perfect – albeit unlikely – landing spot for him would be Edmonton, to give them maturity and leadership beyond just Andrew Ference. Oh, and talk about filling a void – last year no Oiler defenseman other than Justin Schultz played in 70+ games and averaged more than 0:50 per game on the PP.

 

Of course the issue is whether Markov would choose to sign with the Oilers, versus trying to latch on somewhere (like Pittsburgh or San Jose) in hopes of winning a Stanley Cup, or just opting to remain with Montreal. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

 

*

 

It seems like there've been fewer offseason UFA "rights trades" in 2014. You know what I mean – trades where one team moves its impending UFA to another team in exchange for a draft pick, allowing the recipient team time to sign the player before he officially becomes a UFA.

 

Already we saw it pay dividends with the Islanders inking Jaroslav Halak to a four year contract after he was dealt by Washington in exchange for a fourth round pick. On the heels of that, I honestly expected more of these deals to be made; but so far it's been radio silence other than the Islanders trading for yet another UFA to be in Dan Boyle last week.

 

I'm wondering if it has to do with the larger than usual number of new GMs (six have been named since the regular season ended, culminating with the Pens tapping Jim Rutherford last week)? Either way, watch for more of these deals in the coming weeks as teams become resigned to losing UFAs who they thought they might somehow be able to sign.

 

*

 

Perhaps one of those pre-UFAs whose rights get moved will be Alex Hemsky, as he and the Senators seem all but certain to part ways. Hemsky not re-signing there doesn't surprise me; but what did was when I read this piece, which had a comment (albeit from the not always reliable unnamed "source") that Hemsky wants to play in a "U.S. market with less attention."

 

Wait – what?! Did I miss Hemsky spending a few years on the first line or in the crease for Montreal or Toronto? Forget what potential teams want to hear, from a fantasy perspective I'm concerned if that's the mentality of any player.

 

Someone who doesn't want attention strikes me as someone who's not a true gamer. And hearing this makes me put aside what little iota of hope I had that Hemsky would somehow play in 70+ games (which would mark the first time that's happened since…wait for it…..2008-09!), let alone that in the games he does manage to play for once he'd push himself like he did while tallying 17 points in 20 games with Ottawa.

 

If you want my advice, just treat Hemsky's 20 games with Ottawa like they never happened and judge him based on his rather sorry body of work over the past five seasons with Edmonton, which included all too many moments like this (Bambi………lol):

 

 

*

 

Last time I did Ramblings, I asked how many of you were using advanced metrics in doing research and evaluating your players. I figured I might as well follow up by trotting out some of those stats so you can see them in action, so to speak.

 

Most leagues count PP points, and PP scoring luckiness/unluckiness can be assessed with a stat referred to as IPP (In-Percentage Points), which measures the percentage that a particular player factored into the scoring (via a goal or assist) when a PP goal was scored while they were on the ice. A very high IPP (i.e., above 75%) on the PP can suggest unsustainable luckiness and, in turn, a likelihood of fewer PP points next season, while a very low IPP (50% or less) on the PP suggests either a declining skill set or unsustainably bad luck.

 

With that in mind, here are two lists (via stats.hockeyanalysis.com) of forwards who had 200+ minutes of 5 on 4 PP ice time in 2013-14 while (1) posting an IPP of 75% or (2) an IPP of no more than 50%.

 

5 on 4 IPP of at least 75% – Jason Spezza (84.0%), Martin St. Louis (82.6%), Patrick Sharp (82.1%), Nicklas Backstrom (80.8%), Zach Parise (77.8%), Patrick Kane (77.8%), Blake Wheeler (77.3%), Cody Hodgson (77.3%), Radim Vrbata (76.2%), Ryan Getzlaf (76.0%), Joe Pavelski (75.7%), Mikko Koivu (75.0%)

 

5 on 4 IPP of no more than 50% – Alex Steen (50.0%), Daniel Alfredsson (50.0%), Eric Staal (50.0%), Scott Hartnell (48.6%), Mike Ribeiro (48.1%), Andrew Ladd (47.6%), Chris Kunitz (46.7%), Brad Richards (46.7%), Joe Thornton (45.9%), T.J. Oshie (44.4%), Troy Brouwer (41.2%), Kyle Okposo (40.7%), Andrew Shaw (29.6%)

 

In looking at these lists, you can't help but expect some of the 75%+ guys to come back to earth next season, especially the wingers, since centers tend to get more PP points given their "quarterbacking" role. In other words, maybe slide St. Louis, Sharp and Vrbata at least somewhat down your draft lists.

 

Those who are on the 50% or less list are likely a mix of players on the decline in general (Alfredsson, Ribeiro, Richards) and those who had a run of bad luck and should be looked upon as candidates to do much better on the PP next season (Thornton, Staal, Okposo, Kunitz, Shaw).

 

Of course I can't promise this data will help you predict actual outcomes for 2014-15, but it's helpful in getting a better "big picture" about these players, plus others who you can locate on the list. And it shows you advanced metrics in action. Enjoy!

 

*

 

A hot debate topic this offseason will be what the Red Wings forward lines will look like for 2014-15, and whether this will finally be the year where the team starts to hand the reins over to its younger, up and coming forwards for more ice time and larger responsibility.

 

One thing we know is Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg will get their 20:00+ per game if healthy, just like in 2013-14. But what' s interesting is no Detroit forward averaged between 17:40 and 20:15 per game in 2013-14, which seems astonishing until you also see that 15 of their forwards played 21+ games and averaged from 13:27 to 17:39 per game. And even if you go back close to ten years it's been a similar story – Datsyuk and Zetterberg getting tons of minutes, but no one else above 18:00.

 

I can see Gustav Nyquist surpassing the 18:00 mark this season, especially since he averaged 17:22 or more per game in three separate months of the 2013-14 campaign. But for the likes of Tomas Tatar and Tomas Jurco, I'd expect another season of being eased into the top nine with baby steps.

 

Even if he tops 18:00 per game, Nyquist has all sorts of warning signs. He actually slowed to only two points in his last eleven games (including none in five playoff contests). Oh, and not only was his 5×5 PDO 1033, which is above the top threshold (1030) of "normal", but he also posted a 5×5 IPP of 82.9%, which is stratospherically high for a winger. If he plays 80 games in 2014-15 I'd look for 50-55 points (just like Palat), but with a 30% chance at 60 points and a 15% chance at 65+. You need to resist the urge to overpay for him, at least for the time being.

 

*

 

If you want a sleeper for Detroit, consider Danny DeKeyser, who I think would've made a run at 35 points had he not gotten hurt. He's not going to be the top dog in Detroit and won't get PP1 time any time soon, but he could quietly make a run at 35-40 points this season.

 

Plus, how can you not root for DeKeyser and his Xavier LaFlamme-like hair:

 

 

Last note on Detroit – in 2014-15 Jonathan Ericsson will enter year one of a six year, $25.5M deal. Yes, you read that correctly – Ericsson (he of the 68 career points in 325 games) is going to make $4.25M for each of the next six seasons. How does this deal not get more negative attention? Oh, and before someone makes a comment – since the deal was signed in 2013 the Wings can't use a compliance buyout to get rid of it. But wow – maybe it's time to rethink this list?

 

*

 

I'll be back next Tuesday with another Ramblings. And don't forget to check out my weekly Cage Match column; last week it was Patrick Kane vs. Phil Kessel and this week will feature a battle of two #1 d-men!