Welcome to the second of three straight Tuesday Ramblings for me.

 

Austin Wallace, DobberProspects Associate Editor, here: 

DobberProspects is holding a mock draft this year, with all our scouts contributing along with Steve Laidlaw, Dobber and Brendan Ross, and myself! Come check it out, and join in on the fun!

 

 

Last update – still slow going.  Dale Wiese got $2 for two years from Montreal.  Fair deal for both sides, as by all appearances Wiese has fit in well there, and Therrien (also recently extended) seems to like him.  Wiese should continue to contribute 1+ PIM per game but don’t let his nearly 0.5 points per game average from the playoffs fool you.  He’s most likely a 30 point player at best in the regular season.

 

Also, Aaron Rome – the first player to be bought out for 2014 – cleared waivers.  He’ll find a job somewhere else and then you won’t see his name in here again for….maybe ever.

 

 

Second quick update – Apparently David Booth and Ville Leino can be all but officially added to the buyout ranks.  Of course Leino’s buyout was all but a foregone conclusion since he scored as many NHL goals last season as I did.  Look for him to continue his career overseas.  As for Booth, it’s a sad story, as he was already a borderline Band-Aid boy but then never seemed to recover after the (in)famous Mike Richards hit.  How ironic would it be if both of them ended up being bought out on the same day?  I’m guessing Booth gets one more crack at an NHL team, but maybe only as a camp invite.

 

I might be back for one last update in a couple of hours, but then I’ll leave the later breaking news for tomorrow’s Ramblings.

 

Quick AM update – Not surprisingly, Dallas is going to let UFAs Tim Thomas and Ray Whitney (combined age = 762) walk.  Due to a less than stellar UFA goalie market Thomas could luck into another camp invite like he received with Florida in 2013.  But maybe he just retires, since he supposedly said that his main reason for even coming back was to try and play his way onto the US Olympic team in Sochi (which didn’t happen).  As for Whitney, the ball’s in his court, as he could get an invite as well, if not a cheap, incentive-laden deal from a squad that could use help on the PP, perhaps at one of his old stomping grounds (Florida or Carolina, both of whom finished in the bottom three in league PP %).  But in the end, don’t expect much from either guy.

More surprising is that the Stars aparently also won’t use buyouts on Eric Cole or Sergei Gonchar.  I guess they just don’t see doing so as a net benefit to them.  The only other buyout candidate I had envisioned was Shawn Horcoff, but he actually looked halfway decent in the playoffs, so that might’ve bought him a ninth life.

More hopefully to come in a couple of hours.

 

 

 

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There's now no longer any game action to populate the Ramblings; however, with it being only two weeks from the official start of free agency, plus the first "work day" since the Cup was hoisted by LA last week, that's been replaced by a big uptick in rumors and scuttlebutt (thanks in no small part to Bob McKenzie tweeting more in the past 24 hours than a Justin Bieber fan on Adderall).

 

One quick note – I don't get a chance to talk about goalies in my weekly Cage Match column, so I figured I'd dedicate some of these ramblings to netminder tidbits. But I put them at the end, just in case I'm out of my depth!

 

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Despite the number of rumors, day one of the official offseason came and went with more of a whimper than a roar overall, as most items (Vernon Fiddler saying adios to Dallas, the Bs showing Shawn Thornton the door, and the Blackhawks bidding adieu to Michael Handzus) likely made a direct impact on few – if any – fantasy teams.

 

But as is often the case, true fantasy news lies in the story beneath the story. For example, it can be found in wondering who'll grab Handzus' more than 11 minutes of even strength Ice Time in 2013-14, of which just under 50% was spent with Patrick Kane according to Frozen Pool.

 

Personally I like Andrew Shaw for that spot in 2014-15. But even if he doesn't get slotted there, the team clearly thinks highly of him as an offensive player (for 2013-14 he was sixth among Chicago forwards in ice time, but fourth on the PP). And in my last Ramblings you might remember that Shaw's 5×4 IPP for 2013-14 was below 30%, which is ridiculously low.

 

Shaw should be able to coast to 45 points next season, with a much greater chance of rising to 50 or beyond versus tallying only 40 or below.

 

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Arguably the biggest (non-)news is we're halfway through the 48 hour window for 2014 compliance buyouts, yet only Aaron Rome is an official casualty thus far. And keep in mind that in 2013 I believe there was a total of 16 buyouts.

 

For 2014 I'd expect at least that many, as last season teams took a wait and see approach in 2013 in part due to salary cap uncertainty but also to save one or more for 2014, which is the last year they can be used. In other words, we've officially entered "use 'em or lose 'em" time.

 

But I guess we'll all just need to wait for tomorrow for the actual decisions (leaving GMs some last minute time to do anything in their power to swing a trade……. cough cough….Jordin Tootoo and R.J. Umberger…..cough cough) or for the official announcements of decisions likely arrived upon long ago (Brad Richards, Ville Leino, Matry Havlat, and certainly several others). Still – before the dust settles I'm sure there'll be a name or two that surprises folks.

 

In terms of buyouts, if there's one thing to remember – as I stressed in an earlier ramblings – it's that although teams are certainly guilty of some terrible free agent signings, it's hard for them to botch a buyout. In other words, even if a bought out player goes to a seemingly decent situation (think Vincent Lecavalier in Philly last season), your best bet is to avoid drinking the kool-aid and thinking they can rekindle past magic.

 

Focus instead on what I noted above – the story behind the story. For buyouts, that means openings created on their former teams (would Tyler Johnson have done quite as well if Lecavalier had spent another year clogging the arteries of the Lightning?) and figuring out if the buyouts hurt anyone on the teams where these cast offs end up landing (Mikhail Grabovski's 2013-14 effect on guys like Marcus Johansson, Brooks Laich, and even Evgeny Kuznetsov). After all, every signing creates a domino effect, as summarized so well in the "Fantasy Impact" columns posted on DobberHockey after major deals (including trades, signings, and even coaching/GM changes).

 

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Before closing the book on the 2013-14 Kings, I figure it's worth one last word about Jeff Carter. While it's nice to see the effusive praise being written about him and his 200 foot game, that's not exactly music to the ears of poolies who'd clearly prefer the "old" Carter that, as recently as 2012-13, finished fourth in the NHL in goals.

 

I think it's Carter's versatility that curbed his regular season production in 2013-14, and will continue to do so until/unless he stops having to play with a revolving cast of linemates. In a recent Cage Match piece, I noted that, according to Frozen Pool, in the 2013-14 regular season Carter had four different lines (with a total of five unique linemates) that each accounted for between 5% and 10% of his even strength shifts. But back in 2012-13, Carter spent 32% of his even strength shifts with Mike Richards and Dustin Penner, and Richards was his center on 70% of his even strength shifts; and this playoffs he spent more than 44% of his shifts with "That 70's Line".

 

Keep your eye on the Kings' lines in preseason, since if Carter shows signs of sticking in one particular spot he could be set for a nice 60-65+ point season. If not, then it's back to the 50-60 range like in 2013-14. Either way, watch his positional eligibility closely, as in 2013-14 he had rare and valuable C, LW, and RW eligibility in Yahoo leagues, which gives your team flexibility that equates him to someone who scores perhaps as many as ten more points but is only eligible at one forward position.

 

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And just to be fair, here's one final note on the Rangers as well – about Derek Stepan in particular. Sometimes I forget that Stepan’s only turning 24 tomorrow (sorry Derek – no birthday Cup for you) and that next season will actually be his magical fourth year if you don't count the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign. So it might be that we've only seen him scratch the surface.

 

But that still doesn't prevent the fantasy hockey voice in my head from screaming this at myself and all who’ll listen:

 

The reality is if you subtract Stepan's 17 points in 16 March games during 2013-14, you're left with a mere 40 points in 66 games, which is a far cry from his nearly point per game stats of 2012-13. And a quick check of handy-dandy PDO shows that for 2012-13 Stepan's was 1034 at 5×5, which is above the 1030 uppermost threshold of normal, whereas for 2013-14 (when he tallied 57 points in 82 games) it was down to a more reasonable 1011.

 

Okay – so for the near future (including, especially, one year leagues) is he a 55-60 point player like in 2013-14, or a 70-75 point player like in 2012-13, or somewhere in between? Really, a case could be made for him putting up anywhere in the range of 55-75 points in the upcoming season, depending on how you see things.

 

My take is I just don't see him as a guy who's dynamic, slick or explosive enough to be a 70+ point player in the next couple of seasons. It also doesn't help matters that he finished with fewer than 200 shots for 2013-14, since the only two centers (Niklas Backstrom and Joe Thornton) who played in 80+ games and tallied 70+ points in 2013-14 while posting fewer shots than Stepan's 199. And I don't think you'd compare Stepan's game to Backstrom's or Thornton's, AMIRITE?

 

In terms of point output comparables for Stepan next season, I'd put him in the Mikko Koivu or Valteri Filppula category, with an decent but still probably less than 50% chance of going as high as a Bryan Little or David Krejci. If you place stock in my reasoning, then draft or trade for Stepan accordingly.

 

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For part two of my public service exercise showing advanced metrics in action as part of the Ramblings, this week I'll stick with IPP again since it's such a powerful stat and was well received last time around.

 

To review, IPP (which stands for "In-Percentage Points") measures the percentage that a particular player factored into the scoring (via a goal or assist) when a goal was scored while he was on the ice. A very high IPP suggests unsustainable luckiness (and, in turn, a likelihood of fewer points next season) while a very low IPP suggests either a declining skill set or likely unsustainable bad luck.

 

What's another good way to use IPP? Predicting defenseman scoring! In 2013-14, a 35 point defenseman finished 35th in d-man scoring, while 30 points was only good for 50th. That means drafting a defenseman with a 35 point value but having him only give you 30 points could really hurt your team, while grabbing a guy who'll actually tally 35 points or more but only having him cost you 30 point value or less could help your team immensely. Thus, it's very important to see if a defenseman did well in 2013-14 because of what's likely an unsustainably high IPP, while perhaps another had a very low IPP, suggesting that he did poorly because of bad luck that's unlikely to recur.

 

In 2013-14, there were 63 defensemen who played 1250 or more minutes at 5×5, with IPPs ranging from a high of 52.1% to a low of 22.2%. Among the 63, the top four IPPs who didn't score more than 20 points at 5×5 were: Slava Voynov (45.2%), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (44.2%), Marek Zidlicky (42.2%), and Justin Schultz (40.4%). Thus, although they didn't score a lot at 5×5, they had a high 5×5 IPP – definitely not a good combo. It's probably best to temper expectations for these guys in 2014-15.

 

Meanwhile, five notable defensemen who had a 5×5 IPP of 25% or less at 5×5 for 2013-14 were: John Carlson (22.2%), Jack Johnson (22.4%), Dion Phaneuf (24.1%), Drew Doughty (24.1%), and Tobias Enstrom (25.0%). These guys are too young and/or too skilled to be declining, so chances are they're due for an uptick in points via a better IPP in 2014-15.

 

One last note – any fantasy team counting on 40+ points yet again from 37 year-old Marek Zidlicky (who recently re-signed with the Devils for one year) and his 42.2% 5×5 IPP for 2013-14 should heed these words of wisdom from Walter White (SPOILER ALERT IF YOU SOMEHOW HAVEN'T WATCHED SEASON FIVE OF BREAKING BAD YET STILL INTEND TO DO SO):

 

 

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Now as promised, onto goalies. I noticed the other day the 2013-14 NHL leader in shutouts – Tuukka Rask – only had a total of seven. That might seem like a decent number at first glance, until you consider that in just a single full season since 2002-03 was there not at least one goalie who ended up with 10 or more shutouts, and even in that season (which was 2009-10 if you're curious), Martin "Favre" Brodeur managed nine.

 

What gives? Will fewer goalie shutouts become the new normal? The temptation would be to argue just that since not as many goalies had 65+ starts (due to the Sochi Olympics and the compressed schedule to accommodate it) in 2013-14 there were fewer opportunities for any single goalie to get eight shutouts, let alone 10+.

 

But I'd dispute that. For one, fewer starts among the "best" goalies also meant they were better rested, which should’ve resulted in better performances – including shutouts – when they did start. Plus, a drop to seven for the league leader was too large to be explained by a handful of fewer starts among the top goalies. And it's not that scoring is up. Look no further than 2003-04, which had Brodeur post 11 shutouts and Ed Belfour ten. That season featured 14 players who scored 75+ points, versus only 13 from 2013-14.

 

To me, it's about more parity in the league, as for the most part the best players are no longer that much better than the next best, and so on. Or is there a better explanation? Feel free to comment.

 

But let's shift to the key question – what does this mean for your league if it counts shutouts as a separate category or gives them extra weight versus just a regular goalie win? From where I sit, there are and always will be two ways for goalies to get shutouts – individually (i.e., playing so well that the team in front of them that night doesn't matter too much) or fortunately (i.e., playing well, but benefitting mainly on that day/night from the team skating in front of them).

 

I'd argue that seeing Rask as the league leader is no surprise, since he's both a great goalie in his own right and also plays for a top team. But goalies like him are costly to acquire in fantasy hockey, which raises the question as to whether there can be any shutout bargains for poolies.

 

You might to focus on guys who don't play for the best teams but can excel individually. For 2014-15, someone who could fit the bill is Roberto Luongo; he should be good enough to post a few shutouts on his own merits, plus even when he doesn't manage a shutout (or even a win) he'll likely see enough rubber to give him a respectable SV% despite what might be a poor GAA. And there's always Braden Holtby, who managed four shutouts in 48 games and for whom things are now looking up.

 

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Sticking with goalies, last season Sergei Bobrovsky appeared in 58 games and had 32 wins. Barring a major injury, I think that's the last time we'll see him with fewer than 35+ wins in a season for a LONG, LONG time.

 

If you disregard his first 22 games from 2013-14 (through November), his highest GAA in any month from the rest of the season was 2.42 and his worst SV% in any of those other months was 92.6%. And what's interesting is if you go back to his Vezina-winning 2012-13, he also had a poor first quarter of the season, giving up 3+ goalies as many times (six) from January 19th through February 26th (a 12 game stretch) as he did from March 3rd to the end of the season on April 27th (a 26 game stretch).

 

I think this season – the first non-Olympic, full season since Bobrovsky became a true #1 goalie – should see him truly excel even early on, due in large part to Columbus' improvement as a team. That, in turn, would put Bob the goalie in a position to claim a spot as a true top five fantasy goalie sooner rather than later. And if whoever owns him in your league doesn't value him along those lines, then do yourself a favor and pry him out of that owner's hands before he becomes untouchable. And once you do, be sure to look forward to a whole lot of this:

 

 

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One last goalie tidbit – who among us hasn't wrestled with which goalie to grab after the top guys have been picked? Yeah, I'm sure pretty much everyone has faced that dilemma at one time or another, if not each and every draft. One thing I like to do is focus beyond a goalie's total wins from the prior season, since that number can be misleading in the era of the shootout.

 

For example, last season five goalies lost 10+ games in overtime or via the shootout: Cory Schneider (12), Jimmy Howard (11), Kari Lehtonen (10), Corey Crawford (10), and Mike Smith (10). Conversely, the goalies who played in 30+ games and had the fewest overtime or shootout losses were: James Reimer (one), Anton Khudobin (one), Brian Elliott (two), Reto Berra and Devan Dubnyk (three each). I don't think this is a coincidence, as some of those who lost more games were likely at least good enough to keep their team in the contest in the first place, versus those on the other list.

 

Something else I like to examine in parallel is shootout SV%. Among projected 2014-15 number one goalies who faced 15+ shootout shots, the highest shootout save percentages were: Marc-Andre Fleury (88.2% – barely worse than what he posted in the entire 2013-14 playoffs…….lol), Jaroslav Halak (81.3%), Antii Niemi (80.0%), Tuukaa Rask (77.8%), and Roberto Luongo (73.3%). Meanwhile, the lowest numbers were posted by Mike Smith (56.0%), Cory Schneider (58.3%), and Ryan Miller (62.5%).

 

What does this all tell us? For one, either Mike Smith had an off year, or he's started to decline. Also, Ryan Miller might not be as much of a prize free agent as many think. It's buyer beware for both of those guys. On the other hand, look for a big, big rebound year from Schneider.

 

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I’ll be back again next Tuesday, which will mark just one week until free agency begins. And along with Ramblings I’ll have a third installment of “your friend – the advanced metric”.  Until then, feel free to read my Cage Match column that’ll be posted tomorrow, this time focusing once again on two elite wingers.

 

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And as I'm posting this around 10:30PM Eastern I'll try to add some updated news items throughout tomorrow morning, particularly as buyouts become official. So stay tuned!