June 30, 2014

Dobber

2014-06-30

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More Q.O. news:

Winnipeg did not qualify Matt Halischuk. Calgary did not give Q.O.’s to Paul Byron, Olivier Roy nor T.J. Galiardi. Add those names to the UFA list.

Although he signed with a KHL team already, Cory Emmerton is an NHL UFA as the Wings did not give him a Q.O.

Tyler Cuma is among the Wild players not qualified.

 

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The Habs did not qualify Ryan White. Jets did not qualify Keaton Ellerby

And here are some big ones

The Sabres did not qualify Cory Conacher – and a free agent he can go anywhere (obviously). Finally, he can find himself a good fit. I said from the start that Ottawa was a terrible fit, and that Buffalo was not much better. I don’t believe his early impact with Tampa Bay was a fluke, I think there is something out there for him that will work. 

The Hurricanes did not tender a qualifying offer to Andrei Loktionov, a center with potential but who has never really shown it.

Carolina also did not give Drayson Bowman a qualifying offer. And may I just way WOW – the Big 3 prospects in Carolina have each come to this. Remember? Bowman (not qualified, now a free agent), Dalpe (not qualified, now a free agent) and Zach Boychuk (he did receive a qualifying offer, but he’s been on waivers several times). This is why you can feel comfortable trading a great prospect for a proven player. The ratio of busts is so high.

Tampa Bay did not tender Anders Lindback a qualifying offer.

Nashville did not make Michael Del Zotto a qualifying offer. Great MDZ discussion here.

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Here’s an interesting one (more McKenzie) – The Canucks will not give a qualifying offer to Jordan Schroeder. Ditto Zac Dalpe. Both Schroeder and Dalpe will be unrestricted free agents. Do you remember how highly they ranked on the fantasy prospects list? I’d bet that both were in the Top 20 at one time, or close to it…

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Bob McKenzie reports that the Ducks did not give Mathieu Perreault a qualifying offer, but they did make him a contract offer. He can be a UFA if he does not accept that offer.

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Lots of news pouring in throughout the day. I’ll keep adding it here, with some thoughts…

John Vogl is reporting that the Sabres will not give Jamie McBain a qualifying offer. He’ll become an unrestricted free agent. The team is also “considering” whether or not to qualify Cory Conacher.

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More buyout news – the Leafs will buy out Tim Gleason, the Flames will buy out Shane O’Brien and the Devils will buy out Anton Volchenkov

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Names of note not qualified today (the deadline for RFA qualifying offers): Scott Stajcer, Kyle Beach, Austin Smith, Dustin Jeffrey, Keith Aulie, Jim O’Brien…

 

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Darren Dreger is reporting that Christian Ehrhoff is already getting calls.

Aaron Portzline is reporting that Ryan Johansen and the Blue Jackets are at a stalemate with contract talks. Johansen refuses to do a bridge contract and the Jackets refuse long-term. The player will win, and over the next seven or eight  years the player will always win. And then in the next lockout, they’ll look around innocently and ask “why are they doing this?” Follow the process of your brothers – entry deal, bridge deal, massive payday. In that order. If it’s good enough for PK Subban, it’s good enough for you. Stop this nonsense.

Dreger also reports that Dan Boyle has five teams on his last – Toronto, Tampa Bay, Detroit, NY Rangers and Montreal. He’s not a fit with Toronto at all. And I don’t see it with New York either. So in my mind – three teams possible here.

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It’s been a fun few days in terms of NHL news. We’re complaining about the lack of player movement, but meanwhile James Neal, Ryan Kesler, Sam Gagner and Teddy Purcell have changed addresses. Sam Bennett falls to the fourth pick – right in Calgary’s lap – and to me he’ll have the same huge impact (and upside) as last year’s guy who slipped to the fourth pick (Seth Jones). With him and Sean Monahan there, the Flames are looking great up the middle.

I think you’ll see Mikael Backlund have a good year in 2014-15…but then you should trade him after that. His situation reminds me of a Bobby Holik or Tomas Plekanec situation (but on a smaller scale). He’ll pick up his points because the team needs him to. But then as Bennett and Monahan grow into their scoring role, Backlund will serve as a checker who will chip in his points. Just my initial thinking.

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I’m not sure why everyone is calling “highway robbery” on the Kesler trade. I bring him up to anyone in my (highly serious) fantasy league, and I get laughed out of the room. Kesler is considered King Band-Aid in these here parts. The Ducks may very well have acquired a 65-game guy. Granted, besides the lockout year he’s only missed 10 games in the two surrounded years. But he was playing the bulk of them hurt and his surgeries have been (luckily?) mostly offseason stuff. And again I grant you – in the Olympics he has the will to win. So yes, the Ducks landed a great playoff guy. But I think they may be disappointed in his regular season output (and games played). He’s a superior player to Nick Bonino – yet Bonino out-produced him, is younger and is healthier. So is Jared McCann, Luca Sbisa and Derek Dorsett enough to make up that gap? And if not, is it enough to stop calling it highway robbery?

I call it a Ducks win. But not robbery. And I feel like I’m on an island here.

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Linden Vey will make the Canucks in the season ahead and he’ll tally between 36 and 46 points. Take it to the bank! A great profile on Vey can be found here.

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Interesting tweet from Ryan Rishaug last night:

Purcell with good possession stats, 53.6. They continue to pursue Fayne (55.3) this is no coincidence.  They are placing a priority on this.

The Oilers are as sick of status quo as their fans are. Craig MacTavish is trying the fancy stats, and I think he’ll be happy with the result. But one thing they are ignoring so far – physicality. Purcell manages just 10 hits a year (or so). Not that Gagner is Johnny Hit-a-lot, but still…

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Another interesting slant of the Gagner/Purcell trade were the rumors of a buyout. As in – the Lightning may have bought out Gagner at one-third the value of his contract. Both Bob McKenzie and Erik Erlendsson were speculating it was possible. But then he was flipped to Arizona for peanuts, thereby saving the Lightning the buyout.

The difference here is that Purcell is 28 and his buyout is two-thirds of his contract. For Gagner (24), the buyout is just one-third. Much easier to swallow. Oilers get a player at similar salary and a better fit, while Lightning would have gotten an easier to swallow buyout.

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TB rumor, via Brian Lawton:

I am now hearing Boyle and Iginla as possible targets for @TBLightning in the UFA Mkt. Some vets to go with a strong group of young players

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Lost in all the movement was the fact that the Capitals acquired goaltender Eddie Pasquale for what amounted to a sixth rounder and a seventh rounder. That seems a little cheap for a decent prospect goaltender who is within two years of being NHL ready. He should be an AHL starter in the season ahead and that doesn’t happen if Philipp Grubauer is there too. This kind of hints to me that the Caps are standing pat in net – Holtby as the starter and Grubauer as the backup. One of these two will be a stud in fantasy hockey next season under Barry Trotz. I would bet on Holtby.

 

Here is what we said about Pasquale in the Fantasy Prospects Report:

Pasquale has been in the Jets system dating back to 2009 back when they were the Atlanta Thrashers. In his third professional season, he posted a 17-13-1 record with a 2.43 GAA and 0.920 SV% before shutting himself down in February for hip surgery. With strong prospects like Comrie and Hellebuyck knocking on the door and management giving their confidence to Pavelec, Pasquale is starting to run out of time. Montoya will be a UFA this summer but proved that he is able to handle a 1B workload. Pasquale, a restricted free agent, will have to prove management wrong and force his way up if he stands a chance in the Jets system.

Upside – 1B NHL Starter

3YP – (17-11-3, 2.70, 0.911)

Certainty (NHLer; Upside) – 55%, 30%

Expected arrival – 2015-2016.

DobberHockey Draft Advice – Do not draft.

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Speaking of Jets and goaltending, the hot rumor is that James Reimer will be traded to them. And if so, then he would steal that job from Pavelec so fast it would make his head spin.

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The Buffalo Sabres bought out Christian Ehrhoff and he is an unrestricted free agent. Assuming they don’t grab a defenseman via trade or free agency (obviously a big if) – then this puts Tyler Myers back in an offensive, quarterbacking role. Myers has pretty much been a 25- or 30-point guy these last three seasons thanks to a role that had evolved into mainly shutdown. However, as a rookie he posted 48 points. The Sabres not adding a puck mover would mean that he gets back up to the 40-point mark. He likely won’t go higher than that because the team doesn’t have the weapons that it did in 2009-10.

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The Florida Panthers bought out Ed Jovanovski.

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Bob McKenzie also noted that Ryan Miller was in Vancouver, getting “wooed” by the Canucks. I have to tell you – and I’m gonna be controversial here – but Eddie Lack is better than Miller. Miller, and I hate to use the word “sucks” but Miller sucks. Ever since getting knocked by Milan Lucic he hasn’t been half the goaltender that he once was. He sucked in Buffalo at the end, and when he went to the premium goalie destination in St. Louis he sucked there too. I mean – the Blues have made Brian Elliott a superstar practically…but Miller couldn’t flourish there? Vancouver – don’t make this mistake. Offer him a million bucks to be the backup – take it or leave it. Then walk away.

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The Ducks announced that Tampa Bay wasn’t finished, either. Anaheim gave the Lightning a fourth and seventh rounder for Nate Thompson.

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Aaron Ekblad, mic’d up feature:

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