By popular demand (or should I say, head honcho's command…..lol), I'm back for another edition of Tuesday Ramblings. Hopefully I don't disappoint, after apparently setting the bar fairly high with my three week run in June.

 

*

 

Nashville highlighted yesterday's news. Their already thin center ranks were further depleted when Mike Fisher ruptured an Achilles. Recovery time is 4-6 months; however, this is one of those injuries (shoulders are another) where you worry it'll affect Fisher even once he returns "healthy" this season.

 

And going beyond that, with Fisher already 34 you have to wonder if this will officially mark the tipping point where he'll no longer be a threat to hit the 50 point mark going forward, as he's done twice and come within three points of doing three other times.

 

The Preds also signed recent buyout casualty Anton Volchenkov for one year, $1M. He's good for about two to three hits and 1.5 blocked shots per game, but little else. In fairness to him and Nashville, there are worse ways to spend that kind of money.

 

*

 

One time Leaf Jussi Rynnas inked a two year deal with Dallas. With Anders Lindback just brought in to back-up Kari Lehtonen, Rynnas is basically another spare body and replaces Christopher Nilstorp, who recently inked a deal to play in Sweden.

 

In other words – this signing has no effect at the NHL level or on the continued development of Jack Campbell, a top ten NHL goalie prospect according to the DobberHockey Prospects Report, which is still available for order here.

 

*

 

Two RFAs also have been locked up – Jeff Petry with Edmonton (one year, $3.1M) and Tommy Wingels with San Jose (three years, $7.4M), with each deal marking a healthy raise (Petry will earn a shade under double his 2013-14 salary, Wingels triple) and taking the associated player to UFA status when all is said and done.

 

Petry's trajectory has changed from possible all-around performer to a guy who'll throw his body around, as literally indicated by his 181 hits and 132 blocked shots in 80 games last season.  The Oilers could ill-afford to lose him, but he was unlikely to want to forego any UFA years, hence this one year bridge deal.  Look for Petry to be trade bait come deadline time.

 

Wingels outhit Petry in 2013-14, which is saying something.  But he also showed some maturity and offensive talent.  His ability to play in many spots without being out of place should guarantee he stays in favor with the Sharks.  The question is whether he can rise to the 50 point level, which would turn him into a real multi-cat star.  A lot will depend on when/if the Sharks rebuild, which would free up a regular top six spot for Wingels.

 

*

 

If you've read all the excellent DobberHockey coverage of the free agent fiesta from the past week, you're in great shape and already have an edge in your league for 2014-15. But let's talk for a bit about the UFAs still sitting out there unsigned.

 

For reference, here's a list of all the FA signings from 2013 and when they occurred. From this, we're able to see that at least a couple of players who agreed to deals more than one week after free agency began did end up being fantasy relevant, as Dustin Penner signed 11 days into free agency and Jaromir Jagr a full week after Penner.

 

But the list mainly serves to underscore that most of the signings going forward will be either RFAs or "spare parts" UFAs. This, in turn, means if you have an established player on your fantasy team who's still out there now as a UFA, then if he manages to play in the NHL in 2014-15 it might end up being via a training camp invite.

 

And while no training camp UFA invitees made an enormous fantasy impact in 2013-14, Mason Raymond (signed on September 23rd) did manage 45 points after parlaying a camp invite into a contract with Toronto (and from that, a new three year deal with Calgary). Damien Brunner, Brendan Morrow and Tim Thomas also were signed in September 2013 (with Thomas' and Brunner's deals stemming from training camp invites), and each made periodic contributions to their respective team(s).

 

What's the takeaway? For any remaining UFAs who do sign an NHL deal before the regular season, you should be realistic not just in terms of what they're capable of, but also whether they're entering a situation (like Jagr in New Jersey, Penner in Anaheim, or Raymond in Toronto last year) that looks like a good fit on paper, in which case don't be afraid to take a longshot and grab one of them.

 

Specific examples of 2014 UFAs who I think could be a Jagr, Penner, or Raymond, where, on the right team, they might produce at least somewhat decent numbers include Derek Roy (stick him on the second or third line but give him decent PP ice time), Lee Stempniak (good stop-gap solution for a team with younger players), and Jordan Schroeder (he just needs regular shifts with good linemates). On the other hand, unsigned UFAs I'd avoid almost no matter how decent their new situation might look on paper include Michael Del Zotto (more on him below), Mike Ribeiro, Devin Setoguchi, and Joe Corvo.

 

*

 

One UFA we pretty much knew would be among those still unsigned as of now is Daniel Alfredsson, who, according to reports, is likely to "pull a Teemu" and wait until August or even September to decide whether to play another season. The article suggests that Alfredsson – also borrowing a page from Selanne – will either rejoin the Red Wings or opt to retire.

 

First and foremost, Alfredsson won't retire – not yet. I'm drawing a blank on when – if ever – a player with his pedigree decided to retire without a farewell tour type of sendoff. Actually, I suppose it happens if a top player has a serious injury from which he can't return, which sadly makes me think of Chris Pronger, Marc Savard, and another great Red Wing from the not too distant past:

 

 

Although Alfredsson is banged up and not getting any younger, he should be able to get to a decent semblance of full health for the start of 2014-15. Given that, I think he's coming back. If I was to put odds on his return, I'd say 85% yes.

 

And call me crazy, but I wouldn't be surprised if Alfredsson ends up playing for a different team than the Red Wings next season. And as of now my crystal ball sees………….the Bruins.

 

After all, Alfredsson's a right wing, like Jarome Iginla, whom the Bruins lost to Colorado last week. Plus, given Alfredsson's age and the precedent he set last season, you'd think he'd again be willing to sign a one year deal to try and capture an elusive Stanley Cup, which Detroit – at least on paper – seems to have no shot of hoisting any time soon but which Boston has been anointed among the top favorites to win. And of course, a one year deal would be music to the cap-challenged ears of the Bruins.

 

What's more, with Alfredsson already having shocked the hockey world by leaving Ottawa last summer, it's now more realistic to envision him ditching the Red Wings for the Bruins. And while he seemingly wouldn't fit as well with David Krejci and Milan Lucic as Iginla did, he still could be slotted there, or even on the second or third line given his versatility.

 

I realize that Alfredson ostensibly signed with Detroit last year not just to try and win a Stanley Cup, but also because he was able to play with many of his countrymen. Yet I still like the odds of him ending up elsewhere for 2014-15. So if you're in a one year league with a draft to occur before Alfredsson signs, I think he's worth a gamble since not only can't I picture him retiring, but you might get an added benefit of him going to a team where he could give you better all-around stats, like Boston.

 

*

 

I know that Brad Richards seems to be a favorite target of mine. And as much as I subscribe to the "enough is enough" ideal, I feel like it's my obligation to set straight those who mistakenly think Richards will see his production rise now that he'll be on the Blackhawks.

 

With Richards, you have to step back from the fact that he's landed on one of the NHL's top offensive teams (1st in goals scored in 2013-14, 2nd in 2012-13) to realize that he's going there as a glorified spot occupier. Yes, that spot most likely will be centering Patrick Kane; however, according to Frozen Pool, Michael Handzus (16 points in 59 games) centered roughly 28% of Kane's even strength shifts in 2013-14 and Andrew Shaw (39 points in 80 games) centered about 20%.

 

In other words, centering Kane doesn't automatically mean piles of points. And even more talented players than Handzus and Shaw have enjoyed only mediocre production centering a top winger. Look at Tyler Bozak, who scored at barely a 50 point pace in 2011-12 and 2012-13 despite being stapled to Phil Kessel at both even strength and on the PP.

 

What's more, Richards might not even be on Chicago's PP1, which last season (according to Frozen Pool) mainly consisted of Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Shaw, and Duncan Keith. And even if he somehow gets slotted on PP1, you still have to consider that no Blackhawk saw more than 3:18 of PP ice time per game in 2013-14, which would just about tie for Richards' career low (3:16) and would mark only the third time – the others were his past two dismal seasons – he averaged less than 4:00 per game on the PP during a season.

 

I just don't see how this will end well. Sure, maybe there's a 50% chance that Richards finds a way to once again barely crack the 50 point threshold like he did in 2013-14. But he could just as easily fall flat like Vincent Lecavalier did last season in Philly. And the problem is you'll lose either way – it's just a question of how much, since in order to get Richards via trade or draft for 2014-15 you'd have to likely pay a hype-inflated 60+ point value, which I see no way of being realized when the dust settles.

 

*

 

One lesson I've learned in nearly 20 years of playing fantasy hockey is to beware of players on teams that make the biggest summer splashes. Sure – in certain cases they live up to the hype; but just as often the grand plan somehow falls short of lofty expectations, whether because of all the new players not meshing well or too many cooks in the hockey kitchen.

 

Probably the best example of both of those things leading to a poor fantasy result was the 2003-04 Colorado Avalanche, who famously – and quite inexpensively – added Teemu Selanne and Paul Kariya in the summer of 2003 in hopes of stacking the team to cruise to a Stanley Cup.

 

And while the Avs did amass 100 points in the standings, they lost to San Jose in the Conference Semifinals. But of far more relevance to poolies was the fact that Kariya and Selanne had terrible seasons, scoring only 36 points in 51 games (Kariya) and 32 points in 78 games (Selanne). And not only that, but Milan Hejduk was dragged down from 98 points in 2002-03 to 75 in 2003-04.

 

Sure, I suppose that's an extreme example which isn't comparable to anything that's occurred this summer; but what it does exemplify which is relevant even now is when the spotlight shines on a team because of the major moves it made in the offseason, you'll have a situation where you have to pay inflated prices to land its players. And if you're lucky, then maybe you get the value you paid for, while if you're unlucky, you'll feel a lot like the folks who owned Selanne and Kariya just over ten years ago.

 

As of now, the offseason buzz is centered mainly around Dallas, Washington and St. Louis, plus Colorado and Tampa Bay. Chances are at least a couple of those teams (and some of their players) will do better compared to 2013-14; but with all the accompanying buzz, from a fantasy perspective player cost still might exceed actual value.

 

Meanwhile, the likes of Boston and Los Angeles have kept fairly quiet so far, owing in part to salary cap issues but also not as many needs to address. With lack of noise comes lack of hype, which might allow the cost for some players on these elite teams to actually fall, but without any real decrease in value.

 

By the way, if you want to revisit the 2003-04 Avalanche season and have 90 minutes to spare, be sure to check out this ESPN documentary, which pulls no punches:

 

 

*

 

Tomorrow will mark the beginning of my second ever Cage Match Tournament! The tournament idea was conceived by former Cage Match guru Steve Laidlaw, to whom I'm grateful for making the column so much of what it is today.

 

The reason why I'm mentioning the tournament (besides as a shameless plug) is because of two interesting fantasy-relevant tidbits I learned when researching it.

 

The first is that in 2008-09 Zach Parise played in 82 games and scored 94 points, which is exactly how many points he's tallied in his 115 game Wild career. Second, for a two season stretch spanning 2008-09 and 2009-10, Alex Semin amassed 163 points in only 135 games (1.207 points per game), while since then he has 194 in 251 games (0.773 points per game), meaning that his scoring pace since 2009-10 is just a bit more below a point per game than it was above a point per game from 2008 to 2010.

 

So while the tournament is mostly about having fun, there will be fantasy-useful information to gain while it's ongoing. Based on this information, are there any guesses on what the tournament will crown this time?

 

*

 

Who had one month in the pool for how long it'd take before Barry Trotz starting making waves about Alex Ovechkin? For a while, everyone had been saying the right things; but the situation almost seemed too "warm and fuzzy." Then last week came the first mini-hiccup, in the form of Trotz commenting on Ovi's "glide".

 

Okay – so what am I getting at? On paper, Washington isn't a squad that looks to be a threat to enter the same echelon as Boston, Chicago, or Los Angeles, and that's despite its notable free agency signings. So the question becomes how do they envision getting there, and when? And will they manage to keep Alex Ovechkin interested along the way?

 

I don't see a way for all these things to happen, which is why I'm guessing that the Trotz hiring was stage one in a long term plan that will result in Ovechkin being gone from Washington – perhaps even the NHL entirely – before the start of the 2016-17 season.

 

Yes, Ovi's contract is nearly impossible to trade, especially given his steady descent from stratospheric scoring (50+ goals and 105+ points in four of his first five seasons) to mere excellence (one 50+ goal season and no more than 85 points among his last three full seasons). But maybe they find a way, or perhaps Ovi is not so subtly encouraged to pull a Kovalchuk, making him a well-paid hero in his home country while allowing the Caps to save face and money? Thoughts?

 

*

 

And there's also been a lot of talk about how Trotz will immediately solve the goaltending woes that have plagued Washington since Olaf "Holtby Tinkerer" Kolzig hung up his skates. Guess what – I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid, and that's even upon hearing the news about Mitch Korn becoming the team's new goaltending coach.

 

For one, although Trotz and Korn did manage to get decent numbers out of glorified back-ups like Chris Mason and Dan Ellis in Nashville, for the five seasons prior to Pekka Rinne taking the reins the team finished 16th (2007-08), 8th (2006-07), 7th (2005-06), 20th (2003-04), and 9th (2002-03) in Goals Against. Solid, but not superb. Plus, Nashville gave poolies fits in that from 2006-07 to 2009-10 no goalie appeared in more than 52 games during a season.

 

What I'm saying is while he might manage to get decent numbers out of Braden Holtby and recently signed Justin Peters, don't count on Holtby starting 60+ games in net or the Caps suddenly becoming a top defensive team.

 

Of course Trotz could always give a call to a former Caps goaltender Christobal Huet if things go south. Many might forget that Huet posted a 1.63 GAA and 93.6% SV% in 13 games for Washington in 2008-09 and this past May stood on his head against Canada in the World Championships, making saves like this:

 

 

*

 

The response to my three advanced metrics "crash courses" during my June Ramblings was very positive, so how can I resist not going to the well again? Answer – I can't, so I'll end these Ramblings with another round.

 

This time I'll focus on shot selection for the 143 defensemen who played 62+ games during the 2013-14 NHL season. At extraskater.com they break out shot totals into slapshots, wrist shots, and snap shots. And while there's some room for interpretation, that's mainly between wrist shots and snap shots, whereas a slapshot pretty much is a slapshot however you slice it.

 

And in looking at the list of defensemen (who played in 62+ games) with the most slapshots, you can see that it correlates extremely well with high scoring, what with four of the top five in slapshot totals (Duncan Keith, P.K. Subban, Shea Weber, Keith Yandle) finishing in the top six for 2013-14 defenseman scoring. Also in the top 15 for slapshots were high scoring rearguards like Erik Karlsson (1st in scoring), James Wisniewski (8th), Matt Niskanen (12th), Mark Streit (tied for 14th), and Brent Seabrook (22nd).

 

So how can we use this data to our possible advantage for 2014-15? By focusing on those who took a lot of slapshots but somehow weren't productive in 2013-14, since logic would suggest they could see their points output improve in 2014-15 if they continue firing at the net at the same rates as 2013-14.

 

These are the eight defensemen who finished in the top 20 for slapshots taken for 2013-14 but also outside of the top 35 in d-man scoring: Jason Garrison (2nd in slapshots, 39th in scoring), Johnny Boychuk (11th and 72nd), Slava Voynov (13th and 36th), Matt Irwin (16th and 90th), Nick Leddy (17th and 45th), Alex Edler (18th and 76th), Michael Stone (also 18th – tied with Edler – and 85th).

 

Irwin and Edler's slapshot totals are even more impressive than they seem, since they played only 62 and 63 games respectively. Based on this data, both would appear likely to have improved 2014-15 seasons. Meanwhile, Stone is stuck behind Yandle and Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the power play ladder, and Boychuk is a fantasy afterthought unless, as rumored, he's moved to a team that would somehow let him step into a bit more of an offensive role.

 

Garrison might indeed improve, but with the splash he made being traded to Tampa you'll likely have to overpay to get him. Voynov concerns me because, as pointed out in one of my June Ramblings, he had an insane 45.2% 5×5 IPP in 2013-14. That, plus the continued emergence of Jake Muzzin and Alec Martinez might make it difficult for his production to rebound.

 

Then there's Leddy, who looks to have fallen out of favor in Chicago, culminating in a playoff scratch. Plus, with the aforementioned Brad Richards quite possibly being slotted on Chicago's PP2, Leddy could see even less time with the man advantage in 2014-15 than the 2:00 he averaged in 2013-14, with such a decrease bound to hinder his production.

 

Lastly, here's a quick list of notable defensemen who finished worse than 100th in slapshots: Morgan Reilly (142nd), Jonas Brodin (128th), Hampus Lindholm (119th), Jordie Benn (113th), Justin Schultz (109th), Ryan Suter and Michael Del Zotto (tied for 102nd), Jake Gardiner (101st).

 

Reilly and Lindholm are very young, so they might improve, while Brodin doesn't shoot that much in general, and neither does Benn. Seeing Suter here doesn't bode well for him ever hitting the 50 point threshold; but it's especially concerning for Del Zotto to land here, as well as Schultz, who, like Voynov, had an obscenely high – 40.4% – IPP at 5×5 last season.

 

*

 

Remember – Cage Match tournament stats tomorrow. If you don't vote, your voice won't be heard. And look for at least one Ramblings from me in August.