August 9, 2014

Darren Kennedy

2014-08-09

 

Thoughts on Staal, Pavelski, and the growth of hockey analytics

 

 

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If you haven't had a chance yet, make sure to check this year's Fantasy Hockey Guide.

 

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It's the summer, which means I'm spending most of my time reviewing hockey statistics and watching countless hours of Netflix (the Killing is coming back!!)

 

One mental exercise I've found to be particularly helpful is taking a player's numbers from this past season, making sure to avoid looking at his name, and trying to guess who it was. What became immediately apparent is how much my individual biases are impacting my fantasy evaluations. When breaking a player down to his pure statistical output, you sometimes see things you missed before.

 

Looking at the leaderboard from 2013-14 a few things jumped out: Joe Pavelski led the league with 726. Which wasn't entirely surprising, until I noticed he was 53 ahead of second place (Joe Thornton).  Mats Zuccarello finished seventh (570), not a name that would immediately spring to mind. And Jordan Stall – a man I have refused to draft the past few years – came in at number 11 (545). His teammates only shot  6.5% with him on the ice last year. Perhaps he was the victim of some poor luck. Or maybe he's decided to break my heart for all eternity – who really knows.

 

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In other Staal news. Older brother Eric underwent core muscle surgery as a result of an injury sustained while training. I'm not a doctor, but "core" muscles feel like they'd be pretty integral to playing hockey, or any sport for that matter.

 

The report does indicate that he's expected to be healthy for training camp. But this is also a guy who turns 30 in October, has had declining shots for four seasons, and plays on a Carolina team that finished 22nd in goals for.

 

The lesson here: You're the most consistent and predictable asset in fantasy hockey, at least until you're not.

 

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The folks over at Hockey Graphs put up an interesting article on shooting percentages and the players we can expect to enjoy a return to (relatively) normal numbers in 2014-15. A resource you can tap into when starting to put together your sleepers and late round targets.  

 

It's also becoming more and more evident that Daniel Sedin was dealing with a number of issues outside of his control in Vancouver last year. Yes, he and Henrik are turning 34 in September, but if there was ever a season to double down on the twins it might be this one.  

 

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Back to the opening question – a player that has posted 70 or more points on three occasions and was over a point per game in 2012-13. It was a tough one, and certainly not something I would have gotten without at least a few attempts.

 

The right answer is, surprisingly, Predators center Mike Ribeiro. I have to give credit to a number of folks on twitter who got this right on their first guess, but there were also a tonne of star names thrown out. One caveat, of course, is that I didn't include any other data (like shots, penalty minutes…etc) that would have painted a fuller picture.

 

Even so, it's a worthwhile exercise to undertake when trying to mitigate your own pre-conceived notions that may not always be rooted in on-ice production. I'll try to put together a couple dozen more of them on twitter over the next few weeks to see if any trends emerge. 

 

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It's no great secret that I've got a bit of a soft spot for aging superstars. It's some sort of misguided nostalgia that causes me to always root for the once-upon-a-time great. And it's why I always take those guys WAY too early in hockey pools (it worked with Lidstrom, not so much with Kovalev near the end).

 

In keeping with that, it feels like about that time of year when I start over-hyping Jagr to the masses. He could post 80 points. IT COULD TOTALLY HAPPEN!!

 

Enjoy…

 

 

 

Darren Kennedy (@fantasyhockeydk) is a contributor for Dobber Hockey and McKeen's. He'll talk about anything and everything… except Kovalchuk. Never, ever, Kovalchuk. 

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