On the other hand, he’s unlikely to have to face tough defensive situations against top opponents with Paul Stastny and David Backes in town. Lehtera could even find himself on a nifty scoring line with Vladimir Tarasenko, with whom he played in 2011-12, and possibly Jaden Schwartz. If so, watch out!

Rob’s Call: 40 points

Petri Kontiola, Toronto Maple Leafs

The oldest new arrival is Petri Kontiola, who will turn 30 a few days before the season begins. He has been a highly consistent and established KHL scorer, but isn’t known for his defensive play. That could seriously limit his ice time on a team that shares that weakness.

In the NHL, he may find himself in a Roman Cervenka type of situation. Barring injuries to Tyler Bozak or Nazem Kadri, Kontiola will likely find himself on a bottom-six scoring line with secondary linemates most of the year. Even in this worst case, the range of projections that I’ve seen (between 0.3 to 0.4 points per game) is probably a tad pessimistic.

Rob’s Call: 35 points

Jiri Sekac, Montreal Canadiens

Although there’s a chance the 22-year-old Czech winger won’t even crack Montreal’s opening night lineup, there’s still an argument to pick him in a sufficient deep draft, especially in a keeper league. He’s exceptionally talented, still developing, and since he didn’t get a lot of ice time in the KHL last season, his scoring won’t drop by as much as everyone else’s.

On the other hand, Sekac had only 11 points in 62 KHL games going into last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Habs conclude that he needs one year in the AHL before donning the bleu, blanc, et rouge. You’ve been warned.

Rob’s Call: 30 points, assuming he makes the team

Leo Komarov, Toronto Maple Leafs

No longer just a checking line agitator, Leo Komarov used his year in the KHL to add an offensive upside to his game, and could easily defy his team’s modest scoring expectations of him.

Prior to his last NHL stint, wherein he scored just 9 points in 42 games, Komarov had scored 76 points in 158 KHL games, which is a 0.48 points per game pace. Last year he scored 34 points in 52 games, which is a pace of 0.65 points per game. That would suggest over 0.4 points per game in the NHL, far more than the 0.22 to 0.33 that most publications expect of him. However, Toronto is far more desperate for defensive play than for secondary offense, so Komarov’s rarely going to get the opportunity to put his newfound scoring talents to good use. You’d better pass on him.

Rob’s Call: 25 points

Always remember that translating data from the KHL to the NHL, like virtually any application of hockey analytics, is not a foolproof process. Dramatic changes in ice time, usage, linemates, opponents, shooting luck and injuries (to name just a few) can cause scoring totals to fluctuate wildly from one season to the next, even for NHL players themselves. Modern statistical advances will never replace the need to keep paying attention to the more traditional information shared by the local beat writers.

Those important caveats aside, a close look at players who have made the jump in the recent past can provide at least some clue of what to expect from players like Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jori Lehtera, Petri Kontiola, Jiri Sekac, and Leo Komarov. With only three quite notable exceptions, players like these tend to be in the 30-40 point range at best, depending on whether or not they get the opportunities to produce. While individual results will vary, expect the group’s average to be right around 0.4 points per game, with a much more pronounced upside for Washington’s skilled new youngster.