Avalanche Warning

Dobber

2014-09-08

MacKinnon

Could the Avalanche actually miss the postseason in 2014-15? Why you can expect some regression

This may seem like a bold statement, but the Colorado Avalanche are in jeopardy of not making the playoffs this year. At best they will squeak in as one of the two wildcard entries and this is only because the bottom six teams in the Western Conference have not improved enough to challenge last year's top eight. In Colorado's case the team is set up for the classic sophomore jinx following Patrick Roy's and Nathan MacKinnon's well deserved Jack Adams and Calder campaigns respectively.

Obviously a number of experts have Colorado pegged for another trip to the postseason but a closer look at the numbers suggests they will be right on the bubble come April.

Colorado's Five-on-Five Corsi and PDO Conundrum

A total of all five on five situations last year shows that the Avalanche somehow managed to outscore their opponents 164-142, despite being outshot 2049-1871. Out of all of the playoff teams in the West, Colorado's negative shot differential of 178 was the worst at five on five. Minnesota was the only other playoff team from the West last year with a negative five-on-five shot differential, but the Wild's total was ony negative 47. To put this statistic into perspective, the only team from the West that was worse than Colorado in this category was Edmonton, scary.

–Gabriel Landeskog posted a shooting percentage of 11.7% last year, which was well above his career average of 8.2%, leading to a career high of 65 points. -Ryan O'Reilly posted a career high shooting percentage of 13.9%, significantly eclipsing his previous career high of 10.9% from 2010-11, which propelled him to a career high 64 points. –Tyson Barrie posted 38 points in 64 games thanks to an unrealistic shooting percentage of 12.9%, as he scored on 13 of his 101 shots on goal. The only other defensemen in the top 30 in scoring at their position last year with shooting percentages of over 10% were Shea Weber (11.8%) and Zdeno Chara (10.1%). All other defensemen in the top 30 hovered between 4%-8%, meaning Barrie is due for a significant correction. –Nick Holden managed an unbelievable 10 goals and 15 assists in just 54 games with an over the top shooting percentage of 15.2%. This was by far the best shooting percentage in the league for all defensemen who played 20 games or more.

And finally, in terms of career high points totals, 10 of the top 12 scorers for the Avalanche had their career highs in 2013-14. The only exceptions were Paul Stastny and PA Parenteau.

The Personnel Conundrum

While Chicago stayed intact as a powerhouse, St. Louis improved by scooping Stastny, the Stars improved with the Jason Spezza trade and Ales Hemsky signing, Minnesota upped the ante signing Vanek, and the California teams look as strong as last year – while the Avalanche basically swapped Stastny for Jarome Iginla. Perhaps only a slight downgrade in terms of offense, but this change will have a significant impact on the top six. The big question will be whether or not Nathan MacKinnon is ready to step us as a center. At best, poolies should expect a learning curve as MacKinnon (despite having superstar potential) adjusts to his new role.

The saving grace for the Avalanche could be Varlamov if he manages to roll his stellar play from last year into 2014-15. Expecting a goalie with a career save percentage of .917 to match last year's .927 may be ambitious though. There is no question that Varlamov established himself as a top 10 goalie last year but he has not yet reached elite status by any means. If the expected shift in Corsi and PDO rears its ugly head even slightly, we should expect Varlamov to suffer the most in all categories.

Avalanche Warning – this year's team either bubbles out or just scrapes into the postseason.