September 12, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-09-12

More on the NHL's latest rule changes, over/under season point totals and Niederreiter's new contract…

The big NHL news yesterday was the rule changes that were made official.

A quick rundown of the highlights for you:

1. Fines for diving by repeat offenders. Not sure if the player will have to get whistled for the dive by a referee for it to count against their record or if the NHL can review the tape and make a decision on it after the fact.

The NBA has a similar process for "flopping" and they do everything by review after the fact. I don't know that it's curbed "flopping" but it definitely brings more attention to the floppers as it is announced every time a player is fined for it.

I also wonder how the NHL is going to deal with the situations where players were called for diving but also happened to have been obstructed at the same time. The good old offsetting minor penalty situation that I've yet to hear anyone say anything positive about. I can only imagine the NHL will bungle this.

One thing I know for sure; guys like Ryan Kesler and Dustin Brown (to name a couple) are going to be lighter in the wallet this season.

2. The definition of kicking is now a lot more vague and open to interpretation. I can see how some would find this a bad thing. Me, I like it. There's no way the NHL finds a way to make this lead to less goals. I mean, it's totally possible but I think the intent is to make it easier for them to allow for more scoring, which I'm definitely on board with even if skate goals are greasy.

3. Tripping penalties will be called when a player dives and takes out the opponent even if he gets the puck first. I like this change. The whole "puck first" argument never made sense to me. Just because you got the puck first gives you free reign to dive at my feet? It's a safety issue. You can't have players diving at each other while wearing knives on their feet even if there is no malicious intent.

4. The "spin-o-rama" has been banned from the shootout. I'm with Luongo on this one.

But we all know the shootout is here to stay. Maybe this is the year I just accept it and move on. Not sure yet if I'll be able to. After all, there are still some games worth three points and other games worth two. I suppose those issues are separate but they are fairly connected in my mind.

One of the areas where the whole three-point game vs. two-point game is an issue is with projecting the standings. Yesterday I mentioned that the over/under point totals for NHL teams came out. It's really tough to project point totals when you have no clue how many overtime games a team might play, not to mention how many will be decided by a shootout.

Consider the New Jersey Devils who went 0-13 in the shootout last year and 2-7 the year before that. They just missed out on the playoffs both years. The year before that though? 12-4, making the playoffs and eventually the Stanley Cup Final.

I'm not saying that shootout success is total luck. You definitely need to have skill and certain players do perform way better in the competition but there's enough luck and a small enough sample size that I really don't think it's a good way to determine standings. This is especially a problem as the league becomes lower scoring leading to more three-point games.

For the purposes of betting I did some preliminary research on team point totals since we moved to the current point system in 2005-06. Sure enough league-wide point totals have showed an inverse relationship with league goal scoring. As scoring has gone down, the number of points recorded by teams has gone up because of increased overtime games. Below is a table showing the total number of points by teams league-wide since 2005-06 (not counting the lockout shortened 2013 season):

2005-06	2741
2006-07	2741
2007-08	2732
2008-09	2742
2009-10	2761
2010-11	2757
2011-12	2760
2013-14	2767

Over the past four seasons we seem to have hit something of a plateau with a league average of about 2763 points, or 92.1 points per team.

It's looking like Vegas is light on their odds this year projecting a league sum of 2724 points. Either scoring is going up to levels we haven't since the 90's leading to fewer overtime games or there's an inefficiency to be exploited here.

I'm tempted to just bet the over on EVERY team and figure that things will balance out my way. Of course, this isn't exactly a logical choice. NHL teams are a sample of 30 so there's really a sizeable amount of variance that can take place in such a small sample. There's also the matter of the vig that Vegas places on a number of these bets ensuring you can't so much as break even if your bets split 50/50. And that's saying nothing of the major outlier teams that are likely to account for much of the gap between these projected totals and what will actually occur.

One thing is certain, I don't think I'll be placing too many under bets on these season point totals. Instead, I'll likely focus on hammering teams that I think can well surpass their projected total.

Just scanning quickly through the totals I like:

Tampa Bay over 95.5

Nashville over 80.5

NY Islanders over 87.5

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Philadelphia over 88.5

Dallas over 93.5

Columbus over 90.5

Colorado under 95.5

The Tampa over, Colorado under, New Jersey over (86.5) and Ottawa under (79.5) have already received action from the public, enough to move the betting odds though not the projected totals.

I haven't settled in on any bets as of yet but those are the seven I like. It's safe to say I'm looking for a wide-open Metropolitan Division, which is strange because I'm actually kind of into the Penguins over 105.5 points and to run away with the division. I think that means I'm down on the Atlantic Division, which is certainly true. I need to let these thoughts marinate longer however. Have you picked out any over/unders that you like yet?

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I mentioned yesterday that Nino Niederreiter had spurned an offer from the KHL and was close to signing an extension with the Wild. It looks like he has signed that extension. It's a three-year deal. We don't yet know the money involved here but I'm sure it's reasonable.

Niederreiter got his career on track in Minnesota last season and it will be interesting to see if he takes that next step. It's a bit crowded on the wing in Minnesota after Thomas Vanek was signed this summer. They've now got Vanek, Zach Parise, Jason Pominville, Charlie Coyle and Niederreiter fighting over top-six minutes. The former three all have big money deals so you can expect to see them guaranteed minutes leaving Coyle and Niederreiter to fight for the last slot.

Count me in favour of Coyle but all it takes is one injury and Niederreiter becomes an intriguing pickup.

The Rangers officially signed Ryan Malone to a one-year deal yesterday. Kind of surprising that it comes before training camp as I figured the team would make him try out for a contract but the deal is two-way so there is little downside for the Rangers if Malone doesn't work out.

UPCOMING GAMES

	May 15 - 19:05	WSH	vs	CAR
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	Players	Team
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	STUART SKINNER	EDM
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	21.6	CARTER VERHAEGHE MATTHEW TKACHUK SAM BENNETT
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	20.2	BRAD MARCHAND EETU LUOSTARINEN ANTON LUNDELL

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