September 14, 2014

Thomas Drance

2014-09-14

Goaltenders are winning the war on scoring, training camp battles to watch and more…

 

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Rookie tournaments kicked off in London, On., Traverse City, Mich, and Penticton, B.C. this weekend, so hockey season is really upon us.

 

For NHL rookies – they’ve already had a chance to make some first impressions. For veteran players – they’re surely anxious about this week’s upcoming VO2 Max tests, particularly those veterans who took it a bit easy this summer, what with three-years remaining on their current contracts.

 

For fantasy owners, it’s a time to cram in some pre-draft research. Whether that’s identifying players who are still likely hobbled after a summer of convalescence, or digging into some skaters who posted absurd rate stats in a limited role last season and are poised to see more ice this campaign.

 

Information is key, it’s ammunition, and gathering as much as you can – whether it’s underlying data, injury data, or just knowing which key guys are headed into contract years – puts you in the best spot possible as a fantasy GM.

 

Part of this process of being ‘as informed as possible’, involves making an educated guess about how players will be used this upcoming season. For casual fantasy owners training camp is still football season, but for hardcores or those in a higher stakes league, paying close attention to the news over the next few weeks can give you a serious edge.

 

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Here is my quick list of the five most fantasy relevant training camp battles for fantasy owners:

 

1. Pittsburgh Penguins top-six

 

Pascal Dupuis will be back this season, although he was wearing a no-contact jersey at the club’s informal skates this week, and may take a bit to get up to speed. 

 

Obviously if Dupuis is back with Kunitz and Sidney Crosby then he’ll have fantasy value. Needless to say Patric Hornqvist and his elite even-strength shot rate should be getting a very close look from fantasy GMs this fall, particularly since he’ll likely be at the net-front creating havoc and sticking pucks in the net while Evgeni Malkin bull-rushes defenders down-low.

 

Beyond Dupuis, Kunitz, Hornqvist and Pittsburgh’s two superstar centers – who is filling out the Penguins top-six? That’s a premium lineup spot for fantasy purposes, and we really have no idea who will slot in there. 

 

You know the Penguins would love nothing more than to see Beau Bennett stay healthy and win that spot, but he’s coming off of offseason wrist surgery and is just a huge injury liability. Presumably the likes of Steve Downie and maybe even Blake Comeau (who has generated goals pretty efficiently for a ‘fringe’ NHLer) could get a long look, and if they do, have some Jussi Jokinen potential. 

 

As this shakes out fantasy owners would do well to spend the final weeks before their fantasy draft keeping a close eye on preseason lineup notes involving Bennett, Downie, Dupuis and Comeau. 

 

2. Anaheim Ducks LW

 

Fantasy GMs have been waiting for years for a Ducks forward to step up and emerge as a regular triggerman who can play left-wing beside Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf and sustainably benefit over the course of an entire season. Basically if the Ducks could find their own version of 2009-2013 Alex Burrows, or Tyler Bozak, or Chris Kunitz; fantasy hockey enthusiasts would appreciate it. 

 

There will be no shortage of candidates heading into Ducks training camp, with all of Pat Maroon, Devante Smith-Pelly, Matt Beleskey, Kyle Palmieri, and even Dany Heatley serving as potential candidates. 

 

Ducks coach Bruce Boudreau has made noises this summer about starting Heatley out on the first line, but I’d suggest that that’s more about ‘coaching through the media’ than a genuine sentiment. While Heatley had chemistry with Perry and Getzlaf when he was their line-mate at the 2010 Olympic games, that was forever ago, and his production and two-way utility has fallen off a cliff since.

 

Who knows what contract-year Heatley can accomplish though, or what shape he’s in? Heatley could still have some game, he didn’t look completely lost in the playoffs with the Wild, though that was the first time I’d have said that in several seasons. If Heatley’s fit he still has touch and size, though I much prefer Palmieri, Beleskey and Smith-Pelly’s chances of keeping up with Anaheim’s two key first liners.

 

If Ducks camp and the preseason is accompanied by a glut of “Heatley has worked hard and found another gear” stories, then the aging former 50 goal scorer might be worth a late round pick even if he only opens the season with Perry and Getzlaf (he could does the Brian Savage thing and carry you for a week or two). Alternatively if a younger player lights up the preseason getting first-line looks at even-strength with the Ducks, I’d weight that pretty highly when placing a late-round gamble. 

 

A bonus note: Boudreau has also suggested this summer that he’ll roll with a second line of Andrew Cogliano, Ryan Kesler and Jakob Silfverberg – a group that could have pretty serious fantasy potential. Worth watching to see if they can find some quick preseason chemistry too.

 

3. Dallas Stars RW

 

I think Tyler Seguin should be a fringe top-5 fantasy pick this season (obviously depending on whether you’re in a league that counts hits and/or PIMs and/or faceoffs). Frankly, I wouldn’t be shocked in the least to see him compete for the Art Ross trophy this upcoming season.

 

The two main candidates are obvious: 19-year-old net-driving sensation Valeri Nichushkin and oft-injured but highly skilled Czech-born winger Ales Hemsky.

 

Earlier this summer Stars general manager Jim Nill suggested that Hemsky would get the first look on the Stars’ first-line, a nod in part to his abilities as a puck-carrier and distributor. If Hemsky indeed plays with Benn and Seguin, and if he can stay healthy, he’ll be a major assist threat from the wing.

 

Nichushkin on the other hand is only going to improve his output from last season regardless of whether he’s on the first or second-line. Though Nichushkin could blow up if he beats out Hemsky for a first-line slot, he’ll retain some of his value if he’s starting the season with Jason Spezza on a secondary line. Realistically Hemsky will retain a good deal of value too, especially if he can retrieve the chemistry he flashed with Spezza during last season’s post trade-deadline run with the Senators.

 

One more thing to note: last season Seguin played a point-type roll on the Stars power-play (he was positioned on ‘the Ovy spot’ at the top of the left circle, and Dallas generally used just one defender on their first unit). Dallas’ leaders in power-play ice time per game last season included Alec Chiasson and Ray Whitney – neither of whom is with the club anymore. So that means both Hemsky and Spezza could get first-unit power-play minutes. 

 

4. Tampa Bay Lightning top-line

 

Coming off of injury last season, Lightning forward Steven Stamkos never really found the sort of chemistry he’d had with Marty St. Louis with any of his other Lightning teammates.

 

Stamkos was still absurdly dangerous playing with the likes of Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn, but ideally you’d have a higher-end playmaker to complement Stamkos’ heavy artillery, someone who can dominate the puck. 

 

Pretty much everyone – though people who own him in a keep league in particular – is hoping that Jonathan Drouin can step into a full-time NHL role and stick beside Stamkos this upcoming season, but it’s a big gamble at this point. Drouin is the best drafted prospect in hockey at the moment, but he’s also undersized, and 19-years-old, and trying to crack a very deep Lightning lineup. 

 

I have no idea how Tampa Bay’s lineup will look next season, but I know I’ll be paying close attention to who Stamkos is spending preseason games skating with. 

 

5. Vancouver Canucks RW

 

Radim Vrbata is a massively under-rated two-way winger and a volume shooter with a dangerous right-handed trigger. He might be the most skilled Sedin twin line-mate in the history of the Vancouver Canucks, which is needed, since the twins finally began to look their age last season. 

 

Can he stick with Henrik and Daniel though, or will Alex Burrows continue to beat back all comers – as he’s done time and again over the past five years – and remain on the right flank of the twins?

 

This may not be as much a ‘training camp story’ as it is a thing to watch through October. Vrbata was wooed to Vancouver in part on the promise of playing with the twins, so we can be confident that he’ll get an extended look in that spot to start the year. The thing with Burrows though is that – last season’s nightmare aside – he’s expert at converting the twins’ cycle game into goals, and he’s a beast defensively. 

 

Vrbata is an intriguing gamble this fantasy season and has a tonne of upside. When you consider Vancouver’s desperate need for a heavy right-handed shooter on the power-play, I even think he might get a look playing the point with the man-advantage. At even-strength it’s more complicated, since he’s got to beat out Burrows and beat him out permanently to have significant value next season.

 

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One final note: in the war for scoring in hockey, the skaters are losing. 

 

Goaltenders are getting better and better every season and the proof is in the pudding. Every year goaltender save percentage continues to climb and, not coincidentally, goal scoring drops (except in this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs for whatever reason). 

 

Now the spin-o-rama, which was cheap but whatever it was also just a spin-o-rama, is gone from the shootout. Now the trapezoid has been expanded.

 

Not the rule changes even matter in this epic struggle. Last season the league tried to restrict the size of goalie equipment, but guess what? The goaltenders got faster, they all adopted the reverse VH technique so shooters couldn’t squeeze pucks through and they continued to win the war.

 

The quality of goaltending has improved so enormously that veteran guys, the types of players that used to get an endless number of looks in the NHL, they have to wait for injuries before signing contracts. Tomas Vokoun, Ilya Bryzgalov, Martin Brodeur – they’re all unsigned.

 

This is an unintended consequence of better NHL goaltending: every year it seems that older goalies are having a tougher time finding work in the NHL.

 

It’s simple really: if the aggregate quality of goaltending has improved, then it follows that an average goalie is of a higher caliber than in the past. When more puck stoppers can do the job it decreases the marginal value of “experience” so more teams are willing to take a chance on cheaper, less experienced labour.

 

This is why you’re seeing teams hand out hybrid-type contracts to goaltenders – deals that begin as two-way contracts, and evolve (with a Lightning stone!) into one-way deals towards the tail end. This is also why you’re seeing veteran UFA goaltenders, the ones that miss out on the intial frenzy, forced to wait until October to find a job.

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