Risky Business – Part One
steve laidlaw
2014-09-16
Over the next two weeks, the Eastern Edge will look at the top 30 scoring defensemen from last year and the risky proposition of drafting high end blueliners.
For the next couple of weeks, I’m going stray a little outside the confines of the Eastern Conference and talk about something that is near and dear to me, defensemen. Outside of a few consistently reliable superstars, the position has the potential to be a treacherous minefield for fantasy owners. You can have a stud in Mike Green ripping off back-to-back 70 point seasons, then reeling off 24, seven and 26-point efforts or Kris Letang‘s tantalizing combination of points per game and superstar teammates, has you thinking this is the year he finally puts it all together. Here we go:
Including his breakout year in 2011-12, Erik Karlsson has scored at a 20 goal 76 point pace and has only missed significant time due to a freakish severed Achilles tendon, a crime of which has not yet been resolved to a certain owners satisfaction. If there is a lock for 70 points from this position, it’s Karlsson.
Can Duncan Keith repeat last year’s 61 points? Over his last six campaigns, he has recorded point totals of 44, 69, 45, 40, 47 (pro-rated due to lockout) and 61. So is he a 60 point guy or 45 point guy? My money is on him dropping back down to the high 40’s. One thing’s for sure, he won’t miss many games; over the course of his nine year NHL career, Keith has missed a grand total of 18 games.
If you are looking for consistency, then look no further than the Preds Shea Weber. His point totals over the past six seasons are: 53, 43, 48, 49, 48 (pro-rated for lockout) and 56. Over the last six seasons, he has missed a total of only 12 games. A season of 82 games and 50 points is money in the bank.
How many of you knew that prior to last year’s 55 point breakout season, Victor Hedman recorded seasons of 20, 26, 23 and 20 points? Although that last total of 20 points is misleading due to the lockout. Hedman was on pace for a 44 point campaign, so his 55 points last year wasn’t quite the 30 point leap it appeared to be. The Lightning are an up and coming team and have brought him along slowly, I’m confident in saying that the 23-year-old is in line for another 50-plus point campaign this year. He’s arrived.
P.K. Subban went from back-to-back seasons of 38 and 36 points to a lockout effort of 38 points in 42 games, a 74 points pro-rated pace. He followed that year by recording 53 points last season. Does he improve upon last season’s totals or does he cave under the immense pressure of his rather large cap hit? Subban will press to try and justify the new contract, but he should still come close to the 60-point mark.
The last five seasons have seen Keith Yandle score 41, 59, 43, 51 (pro-rated for lockout) and 53 points. Over that period, he didn’t miss a single game. Sure there are knocks him defensively, but last season’s minus-23 was his first minus year since 2008-09. Over the last few seasons, there have been many trade rumors involving Yandle, but if it does one day come to fruition, it should only bolster his fantasy value. Phoenix finished 20th and 21st in overall goals scored in each of the last two seasons, however, last year the Coyotes had the fourth most power play goals, thanks in large part to Yandle’s 31 power play points, tied with Karlsson for the most by a defenseman.
The other half of Arizona’s powerful pair on defense is Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Since becoming a full-time NHL player, the slick Swede has recorded seasons of 32, 41 (pro-rated for lockout) and 44 points. Is this the year OEL strikes for 50 points? Maybe, but one thing is certain, there is little downside here.
From the 2008-09 season, James Wisniewski has played for five different NHL teams; Chicago, Anaheim, the Islanders, Montreal and Columbus. I’m not sure why he never stuck in those other places, but he seems to have found a home in Ohio. He misses rather large chunks of time, mostly due to injury. Over those six seasons, the Wiz has missed 113 games. Pro-rating his points during those seasons, he scored at the following rate (actual points in braces): 56 (51), 38 (14), 46 (27), 56 (51), 36 (30) and 41 (24) points. When you see his actual points versus his pro-rated points, you can really see what a Jekyll and Hyde kind of guy he can be. I’d still take my chances drafting him with 45 point defensemen (if he’s still around) and hope he can stay reasonably healthy.
Niklas Kronwall fell one point shy of 50 points last year. What are the chances that he threatens that mark again this season? Very good if you ask me. Prior to last year, he recorded 29 points in 48 games during the lockout campaign, a 50 point pace. Kronwall has essentially put up back-to-back 50 point seasons since Nicklas Lidstrom retired. In the three previous years, he scored 36, 37 and a pro-rated 38 points (22 points in 48 games). In 2008-09, he had a career high 51 points. Outside of that one season where he played in only 48 games, he’s been surprisingly durable for a player who plays as physical as Kronwall does.
One of my favourite fantasy beasts is up next. Playing mostly as a forward last season, Brent Burns recorded 22 goals and 48 points in only 69 games. Had he been able to play the entire 82 games, he would have been in line for 26 goals and 57 points. The top power play unit for San Jose last year received a clear advantage in playing time and Burns should slide nicely into Dan Boyle‘s old spot. Prior to last season, Burns recorded nine goals and 20 points in 30 games (lockout year), which pro-rates to a whopping 25 goals and 55 point full season. In the two preceding campaigns, he had 11 goals and 37 points and 17 goals with 46 points. Yes, a move back to defense is going to limit Burns’ upside in both goals and points, but I still see 15 goals and at least 45 points this year. He’ll also see a decrease from his 145 hits last year to around 100, but his 24 blocked shots should jump to over 100 due to the position change.
In his second season after returning from a stint with the Moscow Dynamo, Mark Giordano scored 30 points. He then went out and racked up 43 points in 82 games during the 2010-11 season. The following two seasons were less promising for fantasy owners, 27 points in 61 games (36 pro-rated points) and only 15 points in 47 lockout season games, a 26 point pace over the full schedule. Last year, Giordano put it all together, recording 47 points in only 64 games, a 60 point full season pace. He sat for 63 penalty minutes and did very well in the shots on goal and power play points categories, but his hits totals were a little disappointing (73) compared to previous seasons of 153 and 140. I suspect the Flames are quite happy with Giordano focusing on his offense and letting the ancillary numbers fall where they may. This guy is a legitimate top ten fantasy defenseman.
Matt Niskanen picked a great time to have a career season recording 46 points and a plus-33 (sixth best in the league). Cha and ching. His previous high in points was 35 in his second season (2008-09 with Dallas). Sure he took advantage of some timely injuries to Kris Letang and Paul Martin, taking on some additional power play minutes, but he only had the 23rd most power play points (15) amongst NHL defensemen. He made the most of his even-strength ice time though, finishing with the sixth most even-strength points by a defenseman. Look for a decrease to the 35-40 point range in Washington.
Andrej Sekera posted a career season in Carolina after coming over from Buffalo in a trade for Jamie McBain and a second round pick last off-season. His 44 points were third on the team, even though only 15 of them were via the power play. In the seasons immediately preceding last year, Sekera registered 12 points in 37 games (27 point pace) and 13 points in 69 games with Buffalo. His previous career high came in 2010-11, when he scored 29 points. The 28-year-old Slovakian is a good candidate to repeat his 40 point performance.
Bonus coverage:
Every year, there seems to be a story about how much weight Dustin Byfuglien has put on over the summer. And yet every year, he just keeps on being a fantasy stud(-muffin). Since his trade from Chicago in 2010, Big Buff has scored at a 58 point pro-rated pace. Last season’s 56 points were the third time he has surpassed 50 points. In roto-leagues, this guy is an absolute beast in goals, points, power play points, penalty minutes, shots on goal and hits, while hurting you only in the plus/minus department. Last year’s minus-20 was by far the worst of his career. He typically has finished with single digit minuses, which hurts, but doesn’t kill you in that category. If your league lists him as a defender, he’s no worse than a top five defenseman in any format.
Next week, I’ll cover the final 15 defensemen, plus two more bonus players. Stay tuned.