September 23, 2014
steve laidlaw
2014-09-23
On not getting overexcited about the preseason, tempering your John Gibson expectations, going all-in on Neal/Ribeiro and more…
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Preseason games have started, which is exciting news but one of the best things you could do right now is just ignore these games. Beyond the injuries, there just isn't much to glean from pre-season hockey. The wide gap in skill level between some of the competitors is huge and the sample sizes are far too small. Pay too much attention and you might get sucked in. You're better off sticking with your preconceived notions going into your fantasy draft than reacting to a couple of weeks' worth of action.
I'll give a similar reminder a couple of weeks into the regular season. Sure, those games will mean more but can still lead to heavy overreactions due to small sample sizes.
If you can't help but dive into the pre-season action head long, I'll warn you to tread lightly before coming to any conclusions.
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I was on TSN Winnipeg's Illegal Curve Hockey Show this past weekend talking fantasy defensemen. You can check out that podcast here. Also featured included our old friend Justin Goldman from The Goalie Guild (talking goalies of course) and NHL.com's Pete Jensen talking forwards. Definitely worth a listen.
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James Neal and Mike Ribeiro are excited to be playing together once again.
It’s definitely a familiar face and a guy that you know his tendencies and you know what he does and how he plays,” Neal said. “That helps a lot. We’ve had a good chance to get together in the skates and I think we’ll be fine come camp.
I'm excited as well. I think this could be the first year in a long time that we see Predators forwards be hot commodities in fantasy pools. Shea Weber led this team in scoring each of the past two seasons and hasn't had a player score 60 or more in a season since JP Dumont (remember him?) in 2008-09. I think that the Predators have two candidates to do just that in Neal and Ribeiro.
I think that a power play with those two along with Weber and Roman Josi can be a really lethal unit, which will help Neal retain some of his value coming from the Penguins and help Ribeiro bounce back.
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There were some concerns that Bobby Ryan was concussed over the weekend but he's yet to experience any symptoms. So consider a bullet dodged there.
Ryan should have a bounce back season after being derailed by a hernia. I'm not sure that means he'll get back to the 60-point level. He certainly has the talent but I'm skeptical that the Senators have enough talent as a team to help elevate him to that level. I'm looking for 55 points myself, which might be splitting hairs but that's the projection I'm going with.
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Our very own Thomas Drance compares Anaheim's John Gibson to NFL quarterback Russell Wilson. It's a fun comparison, but I wonder if all this Gibson hype isn't getting out of control.
First of all, Gibson isn't necessarily a lock to be a great goaltender in the NHL. It sure feels that way. Whether you look at his stats or watch him play, Gibson looks like the real deal but we've seen flops before. Maybe an injury derails him or he loses confidence at some point.
There's also the matter of everyone seeming to think that his coronation will be THIS SEASON. Last I checked Frederik Andersen was still in Anaheim, which means Gibson will have competition for playing time. And isn't there also a chance that Anaheim isn't that good this year.
The consensus is that Anaheim was a great team and will only get better now that they've added Ryan Kesler and are potentially upgrading in goal with Gibson. What if that doesn't work out so well?
Kesler is injury prone. So is Ryan Getzlaf for that matter. If these guys miss time, couldn't we be headed towards something of a nightmare season for the Ducks? They've got some really solid depth but it works because the stars are in place to take the really tough matchups. If those guys go down suddenly the Ducks aren't so menacing.
And what if the Ducks regress? They led the league in shooting percentage last season. There's no question in my mind that elite players can drive shooting percentages up. There's a reason why guys like Sidney Crosby, Getzlaf, Steven Stamkos, etc. are among the league leaders in on-ice shooting percentages year after year. They do increase shooting percentages.
Sure enough, Getzlaf led the league in on-ice shooting percentage last season. That doesn't make him impervious to regression though.
The degree to which the Ducks scored at high rates with Getzlaf on the ice was so high it almost has to come down. Combine that with a propensity for injury and you're looking at a ton of goals coming off the board.
None of this is to say that Gibson isn't a nice sleeper. But no one is sleeping on him. He's going 28th among goalies in Yahoo! drafts this fall, which is right around where I think he should go. That's the point where you take backups with real upside. You definitely want to refrain from overreaching for him.
If you really need a sleeper look at backups like Darcy Kuemper (could already be Minnesota's starter) going 42nd among goalies, Robin Lehner (45th), Alex Stalock (46th) or Jake Allen (49th).
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Sports Illustrated lists the players most likely to be traded this season.
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If you were hoping for Flyers prospect Scott Laughton to make an impact this season, maybe curtail that back. He seems to have settled into the notion that he'll be headed to the AHL to start this season.
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Our old friend Jeff Angus has a profile on Luca Sbisa worth checking out.
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Dustin Byfuglien doesn't seem too happy to be playing forward this season: