September 30, 2014
steve laidlaw
2014-09-30
Extensions for Krug, Smith and Eakin, a couple rookie defensemen pushing for roster spots and more…
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Exciting night of fantasy hockey for me last night. We held the annual DobberHockey Experts League draft, which proved to be very challenging. The league is shallower than in the past with just 11 of the writers participating but that should make for a more challenging pool with real talent sitting on the waiver wire.
We made some changes moving to a daily starts league with a cap on games played per position and a cap on free agent pickups. So while the waiver wire is deeper this year, figuring out how to use it will be more challenging.
We're banking on the daily setup to make things more engaging than the weekly arrangement we had before. We also hope that the limited free agent pickups will spark more trading.
I don't have a ton of hard-hitting analysis on the draft yet, I'm still decompressing from that stressful event (first draft of the year so it was nerve-wracking, but in a good way). I'm sure there will be plenty of coverage on the league as the next couple of weeks unfold and our writers get a chance to talk about it. I know I'm planning on having more to say for Thursday. Either I'll put together some sort of column or just break it down in the ramblings.
Either way, expect to hear a lot about this league throughout the year. I know that I'll be touching on it quite a bit and hopefully the rest of the staff will follow suit. Do you feel like this is something that you'd enjoy?
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The Leafs made some more cuts yesterday, among them, Petri Kontiola, their big offseason acquisition from the KHL. This comes as a bit of a surprise. I figured Kontiola was a shoe-in for a spot somewhere in the top-nine forwards. Instead he looks like the first injury call-up, which based on the Leafs current injury situation might not be that far off.
Regarding that injury situation, Cody Franson fell in a big way in the Experts draft. He fell all the way to the 11th round, as the 24th defenseman off the board. That actually isn't so bad in that context, but this is a league that counts hits, a category where Franson shredded last year.
We still don't know the severity of his injury but it seems serious. Add the questions about his abilities as a two-way defenseman and that's enough to make him drop a long way.
Back to Kontiola though. His demotion means that Peter Holland has a real shot at making this team. It also means that Mike Santorelli has a spot in the top-nine. There likely won't be much power play time for either guy, which will keep them from being valuable in most leagues but they are progressing from where they stood this summer with Kontiola pencilled in as the third line center.
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Looks like Lubomir Visnovsky's season is getting off to a bad start as he's hurt again, suffering from back spasms. I haven't studied the matter but back spasms strike me as one of those injuries that never really goes away. It's especially disconcerting given the injury problems Visnovsky has had over the years and especially since landing on Long Island.
I've given Visnovsky a little bit of love as a sleeper pick. If he could stay healthy he could get like 50 points. Doesn't look like that's in the cards so my other sleeper pick, TJ Brennan, gets that much more interesting.
I snagged Brennan with a late pick in the Experts draft, hoping for a vicious combination of hits and top unit PP time. If he doesn't hit, well, he's only a bench player for me.
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The Avalanche extended the contracts of Brad Stuart and Cody McLeod. Not much fantasy value here, especially out of Stuart. McLeod at least has value in deeper leagues for hits and PIM. His contract basically guarantees the employment of at least one goon-type player at the NHL level for the next few seasons. It's also a cheap deal for those of you in deep multi-cat cap leagues.
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Things are starting to get ugly for the Blue Jackets. Boone Jenner just went down with a broken hand. That means that they are looking at starting the season without their entire projected top line.
Some would argue that the Jenner-Ryan Johansen–Nathan Horton line was actually the second line with Brandon Dubinsky being the true #1 centerman and I'd have to agree that there's some logic to that. Either way, that Johansen line was expected to carry a good portion of the offense and now they all look like they'll start the season out of the lineup.
Johansen may not even play the first month so he may not be around to suffer the negatives of being without his wingers but if he does return inside that month, don't expect much. His fantasy stock just keeps dropping for me.
I also can't say I love Columbus' sleeper potential any more. I wouldn't write them off entirely because this is still a deep team with a goalie that can steal games but losing an entire line makes them not so deep. So speaking of that game-stealer, Sergei Bobrovsky owners may have lost the most in this whole situation. He goes from top-10 goalie to something less than that.
What's positive is that if Bob struggles, he might make for an excellent buy-low early on. Then if the team gets healthy and Johansen gets into the swing of things the team can go on another second half run.
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Kari Lehtonen suffered a "mild" concussion. I hate that term, mild, with regard to concussions. It seems to me that we still don't know nearly enough about concussions to tell the severity of one upon first inspection. But maybe we have gotten to that point and I haven't caught on yet. Either way, this is a score for the "Lehtonen is still a band-aid boy!" crowd, who, to be fair, kind of have a point.
Lehtonen has still been injured basically every year since landing in Dallas. He just starts SO MUCH that he can get hurt and still be in the top five for games started every year. I'd treat this concussion just the same, in that it might cost him a game or two but by the end of the year he'll still be a top starter and if the Stars can put it together then he'll be a breakout star like Semyon Varlamov was last season.
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Justin Bourne's unique team traits focuses on the "big three" of Tampa Bay.
Those big three (Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Ben Bishop) are players I am head-over-heels for in fantasy hockey this year.
Stamkos is an obvious one. Hedman jumped to the top five in defenseman scoring last year and that was no fluke. Imagine what he can do with a healthy Stamkos for a full season?
Bishop is the one that everyone questions (and Bourne gets into that) but to me he's good enough that he can hold down the fort while the team in front of him (a really deep and explosive team) takes care of the rest. As I mentioned above, Tampa Bay is a legit sleeper in the Atlantic and really a potential Cup contender. If you think the roster is at that level then Bishop doesn't have to do much.
Think about mediocre goalies on other standout teams. I'm thinking guys like Antti Niemi, Corey Crawford, or Marc-Andre Fleury. They are all talented, no question but are these guys top five at their position? Top 10? Top 15? Yet they have all won Stanley Cups and put up gaudy regular season win totals along the way. I'm giving Bishop enough credit that he can act as a caretaker for a really good team. That could mean leading the league in wins. I'm dead serious.
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Evgeni Malkin's fantasy stock has taken a hit because of injuries. Not only is he a perennial threat to miss extended time, he's already hurt and hasn't even skated yet this pre-season. He didn't drop much (if at all) in the Experts Draft though, going fifth behind just Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos and Henrik Lundqvist. So we can’t say he’s falling everywhere.
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I am extremely down on the Flyers for this season. With Kimmo Timonen out, the defense looks miserable. And with Steve Mason still in that could be bad news. The lone source of excitement for me is the potential of a full season of Claude Giroux on the power play, which should mean Marc Streit gets back to his 50-point ways.
One more reason for excitement is the strong push being made by rookie defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere to make the squad. I've trumpeted his virtues a few times over the past year and I'll do so again here. Gostisbehere is the heir apparent to the top defense spot in Philly, which with Giroux set to be around long term looks like a great spot.
Now, I'm not saying Gostisbehere is a #1, do-it-all, franchise defenseman but he's got all the skills necessary to be their #1 scoring defenseman, skating on the top power play unit, and fueling rushes up ice with crisp exit passing.
Look at how he gets this shot through against the Rangers: