2.32 (M.C.)

0.29 (J.F.)

0.34 (M.C.)

2011-12

0.52 (J.F.)

0.39 (M.C.)

0.78 (J.F.)

0.45 (M.C.)

0.39 (J.F.)

0.20 (M.C.)

2.74 (J.F.)

2.65 (M.C.)

0.17 (J.F.)

0.18 (M.C.)

2010-11

0.76 (J.F.)

0.49 (M.C.)

1.88 (J.F.)

0.41 (M.C.)

0.38 (J.F.)

0.46 (M.C.)

3.26 (J.F.)

2.88 (M.C.)

0.22 (J.F.)

0.31 (M.C.)

Both players have been fairly consistent in terms of PIM, Hits, and Blocked Shots output, which is bad news for Cammalleri owners since consistent in his case means bad. Only once in these four seasons did Cammalleri average more than one PIM per two games, and in none did his total Hits plus Blocked Shots add up to one per game. Meanwhile, Franzen not only has put up far better numbers than Cammalleri in each category, but his averages for the past two seasons have been either greater than (PIM) or comparable to (Blocked Shots, Hits) what he posted in the previous two, so he's trending well.

It's a similar situation for Franzen in PP points, where he's upped his production from one per every five games or so to three every ten games. And the fact that he did so in two successive seasons cuts against it being a by-product of unsustainable luck, although of course we'll examine that below.

Cammalleri has put up similar total PP production as Franzen over these four seasons, although unlike Franzen he's been very up and down (up in 2010-11 and 2012-13, down in 2011-12 and 2013-14). By digging deeper we can see that the up years corresponded to his teams having a top ten power play overall, which is good news since the Devils somehow managed the league's ninth best power play conversion percentage in 2013-14 despite finishing way down at 27th in goals per game.

Luck-Based Metrics

Neither player had a season in which all his metrics suggested he was unsustainably lucky or unlucky. In all four seasons, each posted a personal shooting % close to his lifetime number (11.8% for Franzen, 12.2% for Cammalleri). But it is interesting to note that not only has Cammalleri's shooting percentage risen in three straight seasons, but 2013-14 also saw him post his highest Shots per game average, which represents a very nice "best of both worlds" situation and bodes well for 2014-15 and beyond.

There's also a logical explanation for Cammalleri's 2012-13 and 2013-14 seemingly odd combination of terrible PDO but ultra-high IPP. Simply put, Calgary was a very poor team that relied heavily upon Cammalleri for offense. On a squad like New Jersey, one can expect his PDO to move back toward what's normal for him, but, at the same time, for his IPP to decrease, as only Jagr had a 5×5 IPP greater than 61.2% in 2013-14 among Devils forwards with 1000+ minutes played at 5×5 and only Damien Brunner had a 5×4 IPP greater than 66.7% among forwards who played 100+ minutes at 5×4. Thus, when all is said and done the expectation would be for comparable overall production from Cammalleri.

As for Franzen, his IPP numbers have been steady at 5×5, while his higher PP point outputs in the past two seasons coincided with his highest and lowest 5×4 IPP numbers, which effectively cancels out good or bad luck as an explanation. And although his 1042 5×5 PDO is well above what's generally considered the high end of normal (i.e., 1030), it did not result in abnormally high production during that season and he seems to be one of those players whose PDO simply runs high.

Who Wins?

Since their band-aid boy status is basically a wash, the decision here boils down to pure numbers. And in the end I'll give Franzen a slight edge in points only leagues, and a larger margin of victory in multi-cat formats and cap leagues.

Franzen's production has been steady (or, if anything, trending slightly up, and without benefitting from excess luck) and his situation in Detroit is unlikely to change much – if at all – in the coming few seasons. With that, it's hard not to figure him for a 60+ point pace and, at the same time, almost zero chance of him dipping below a 55 point scoring pace, which, it's worth noting, hasn't occurred for him since back in 2007-08.

Meanwhile, Cammalleri has suffered through more slightly off years than Franzen, and hasn't scored at a 60 point full season pace since back in 2009-10. But at the same time Cammalleri is more "front and center" in people's minds entering 2014-15 due to having signed a big UFA deal in the offseason, whereas some might actually devalue Franzen due to the hype surrounding younger Red Wings like Nyquist and Tatar. Thus, Franzen appears to be the safer bet not only in terms of production downside, but also when factoring in perceived value and actual cost vs. actual value.

All this having been said Cammalleri, might be a guy to target if you're trying a higher risk, higher reward strategy, as if everything truly lines up for him he could explode for 70+ points in New Jersey, especially since he's a two time former 80+ point scorer, whereas Franzen has never scored above a 68 point pace.