October 9, 2014
steve laidlaw
2014-10-09
Recapping the season-opening games, talking Penguins power play combinations and more…
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Oh yeah, hockey is back. Let's dive right into the games…
Pretty sloppy game between the Leafs and Canadiens but that's to be expected at this point in the season. The Leafs had an impressive first period, playing with a lot of jump and winning the shot battle 11-6 and leading on the scoreboard 2-1. Maybe they're going to flip the script and become a better possession team, I thought. Not so.
Montreal found their legs in the second and never really looked back. The Canadiens won the shot battle 32-27, and pulled out a 4-3 win. The game probably should have ended 3-2 but the teams traded a pair of flukey goals at the end of the third.
Obviously we can't come to a conclusion that the Leafs are terrible and the Canadiens are great based on this one result but I will say that this looked like more of the same from the Leafs.
Some lineup notes to discuss:
The Canadiens' top two lines are really solid. The Max Pacioretty – David Desharnais – PA Parenteau line is going to light it up this year, especially on the power play. I love the offensive ability on this unit. They combined for four points last night, Parenteau leading the way with two assists.
Parenteau was one of my sleepers for this season and it's nice to have confirmation that my logic wasn't off. I'm looking for 55 points from Parenteau this season but hoping for up to 70. We know the potential is there.
Heard some complaints about Desharnais not shooting in some spots. I get it, shots are good but this guy doesn't have much of a shot, it's just not his game. He hasn't even landed 100 SOG in a season in his career. Have you ever heard the saying, "he's open for a reason"? I applaud Desharnais for understanding his limitations.
The other line in the Habs top-six was the more impressive line, however. I really like the energy that Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec and Brendan Gallagher played with. Just a really solid two-way possession line.
Plekanec got two goals, one on a breakaway and one on a deflection off a Leaf defenseman. I actually don't love this group for fantasy purposes. Plekanec probably tops out around 50 points, though he will fire a ton of shots (including five last night).
Gallagher is in a similar mould for fantasy purposes – not a ton of upside but WILL fire shots. Skating with these two means we probably don't see much scoring upside from Galchenyuk either. The big reason I don't like this group, is they stink on the power play. It's just tough to score more than 50 points in this league when you aren't scoring at least high teens on the power play and these guys won't get there.
Also worth noting here is that Galchenyuk was not skating at center and in this lineup it doesn't really make sense for him to be. They've got Desharnais, Plekanec, Lars Eller and Manny Malhotra to skate up the middle. Galchenyuk can play wing so keep him there.
Final thought, Habs rookie, Jiri Sekac, was skating on the third line with Eller and Rene Bourque and NOT with Plekanec. There goes his dark horse potential. Look for 25-35 points.
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On the Leafs side of things, Cody Franson was absent from the lineup. I didn't miss him. Stuart Percy drew into the lineup and looked pretty good. Obviously not a positive outcome having the game winner bounce in off his skate but that stuff happens. I like his skating though.
The Leafs could have one heck of a mobile defense unit with him, Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner. Percy even managed an assist skating in Franson's spot on the top power play unit. One thing Percy doesn't bring and Franson does is the physical dimension but when you've got Roman Polak pulling himself out of position to dish out seven hits (as he did last night) then do you really need more physicality on the back end?
I loved what I saw from Rielly last night. He scored a goal (a flukey one but whatever, you make your own luck) and looked dangerous jumping into the rush on multiple occasions. But we know he had this ability so seeing this isn't going to make me believe he's ready to break out. In fact, I think that stays in the 30-point range again.
Why?
Because he doesn't get enough ice time. He skated 19:03 last night, with 2:46 on the power play. That second number is big but only because Randy Carlyle was giving his second power play unit more run.
I've got little to say about Calgary in this one. One of the most boring teams from a fantasy perspective. Get used to a lot of stat lines from Jonas Hiller like his one last night: Three goals against, 29 saves on 32 shots, .906 Save Percentage. Yawn.
Okay, one more. Johnny Gaudreau looked okay from what I saw. Not intimidated and very creative. It’s tough to see him producing much in this lineup though.
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This is little consolation for the San Jose Sharks but they went into Los Angeles and spoiled the Kings' Cup celebration. The Kings get to be the champs all year though so a win in October really doesn't do a lot for the Sharks but the two points in the standings. And let's be fair, in this division, two points in the standings is huge. Really, by shutting the Kings from any points it's more like a four-point game for the Sharks, whereas had the Sharks won in overtime or shootout it would have been a one-point game. Confused? Me too. I hate the NHL points system, but I digress…
Contrary to the scoreboard I didn't feel like the Sharks were that dominant. In fact, they were outshot in this one 34-30 though that discrepancy was built mainly in the third period where the Sharks already had a 4-0 lead. Basically every team gets outshot when they are up big like that.
What really undid the Kings was some terrible penalties and poorly timed breakdowns that led to easy Sharks scores. The Sharks only scored one goal on their four power play chances but it was one more than the Kings scored on their five (though two of those chances came in garbage time.)
So it looks like we might be in for another long season of underwhelming power plays for the Kings, which is awfully remarkable considering the talent they are working with. Their top power play unit consisted of Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Marian Gaborik, Drew Doughty and Alec Martinez. That could be a great unit!
They looked miserable. They did put together some interesting chances on their garbage time five-on-three but my goodness, I would hope you look good up two men.
It's only one game so we really shouldn't overreact. I made the Chicken Little joke above and that applies here too. It's just tough not to see the same problems afflicting this team and not come to the conclusion that there's some systemic problem here. Obviously they've won two Cups in three years so we can't really question their whole "sleepwalk through the regular season, stink at power plays, kill everyone once the playoffs begin" strategy but as fantasy owners, it's annoying.
And let's give some credit to the Sharks too because they looked good. The team looked deep and fast and obviously motivated.
I liked what rookie forward Chris Tierny brought to their third line, which was mainly speed and size. We'll see if he sticks when James Sheppard returns but it looks like they've found another role player.
That's good because with Brent Burns moving back to defense and Joe Pavelski moving onto the top line permanently, the Sharks need a third line centerman.
Tierney's linemate, Tommy Wingels, led the attack for the Sharks with two goals, including this beauty: