Forensics: Duncan Keith
Anthony Lancione
2014-10-10
Forensics takes a look at the virtues of Duncan Keith and why he may not regress this season.
Last week, as many of you are aware of by now, the gang of columnists here as DobberHockey engaged in our annual Experts League Draft. It was quite the intense draft as the player pool has trickled down by drastic portions from last season to a shallow 264 total (11 GMs x 24 spots) from a whopping 416 pool last season (16 GMs x 26 roster spots). So very naturally, FAR less room for error was afforded to us as well lessened room to make your mark in the deeper rounds with sleepers, prospects, etc.
We knew going in that we absolutely needed to hit on our picks. So I went all in with less sexy selections in the first half dozen rounds, staying away from 2014-15's risers/trending picks, opting to jump all over Duncan Keith notably. I took him as my first defenseman, in the 5th round, 57th overall. Moreover, he was the 7th blueliner taken until that point (after Erik Karlsson, P.K. Subban, Shea Weber, Dustin Byfuglien, Dion Phaneuf & Drew Doughty).
My colleague, Steve Laidlaw, lambasted me in the DobberHockey Ramblings a couple days later in his extensive Draft Review segment, in lieu of passing on Victor Hedman to take Keith when I did. His reasoning was rather fair, insofar as identifying Keith as being averse to hitting (a category of ours) and the fact he adjudges Hedman to be on a meteoric rise to uber-elite status, amongst rearguards.
I'll admit I may have overlooked the lack of hitting to a degree. After all, Keith abysmally averaged less than one hit every two games last season! However, it didn't cause me to resist the temptation, fully knowing how incredibly valuable his overall fantasy package is.
Let me make my argument for Duncan Keith not only being worthy of selection in the seven slot for Defensemen, but how he may well have been a slight steal at the 57th pick overall, for our format.
First of all, last I checked, Mr. Keith was awarded a pretty darn substantial accolade this past summer in Las Vegas, if you recall. Of course, I'm not numb to the fact that elements going into consideration for the Norris Trophy differ in several ways from consideration for fantasy appeal. The defensive awareness, responsibility, dependability in the clutch of a player, etc. are all moot points in fantasy hockey by most respects.
TOR
D
10
31
10
168
19
230
25
Drew Doughty
LAK
D
13
30
20
179
18
180
31
Keith Yandle
ARI
D
10
45
0
219
23
20
34
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
ARI
D
16
33
0
172
19
135
39
Duncan Keith
CHI
D
6
49
20
176
19
40
40
Cody Franson
TOR
D
5
34
0
99
17
260
43
Brent Burns
SJS
RW/D
13
32
0
208
13
150
44
Kevin Shattenkirk
STL
D
10
37
10
174
22
70
46
Jack Johnson
CBJ
D
5
33
0
163
18
180
47
Ryan Suter
MIN
D
7
42
10
145
23
70
49
Niklas Kronwall
DET
D
10
40
0
124
24
95
50
Alex Pietrangelo
STL
D
9
43
20
178
20
25
51
Zdeno Chara
BOS
D
15
22
20
197
12
165
56
John Carlson
WSH
D
11
38
10
177
18
65
60
Kris Letang
PIT
D
11
36
10
166
19
70
65
Alex Goligoski
DAL
D
7
43
0
141
18
90
66
Torey Krug
BOS
D
14
28
20
177
20
50
69
Alexander Edler
VAN
D
8
26
0
205
16
130
75
Victor Hedman
TBL
D
12
44
10
133
10
85
In terms of Overall Average Position Drafted, as presented by Yahoo! from this past draft season, amongst all leagues, Keith went an average of 39th overall. So, although that isn't specific to the parameters of our Experts league, nor does it remove all of the outlier GM/drafters in North America, the fact is tens of thousands resort to standardized auto drafts. This means that the outliers may be equalized a fair bit, rendering these average position drafted figures, still somewhat useful; even if not all that accurate with respect to where players SHOULD have been drafted on average.
Keith is now a two-time defending gold medalist. While it's rather abstract, I feel it's reasonable that since he played a key role for Canada in their first success on large ice surface this year, it's become just one more element elevating his personal acumen and self-confidence in the game on the whole.
Finally, with a multi-point effort on the road, in Chicago's season opener last night, including notching the team's first goal of the year, another large season may well be in store for Keith (and a happy fantasy owner in yours truly, to boot!).
(Give Anthony Lancione a follow on Twitter @Anthisdaman)