Forensics: Duncan Keith

Anthony Lancione

2014-10-10

DuncanKeith

 

Forensics takes a look at the virtues of Duncan Keith and why he may not regress this season.

 

 

Last week, as many of you are aware of by now, the gang of columnists here as DobberHockey engaged in our annual Experts League Draft. It was quite the intense draft as the player pool has trickled down by drastic portions from last season to a shallow 264 total (11 GMs x 24 spots) from a whopping 416 pool last season (16 GMs x 26 roster spots). So very naturally, FAR less room for error was afforded to us as well lessened room to make your mark in the deeper rounds with sleepers, prospects, etc.

 

We knew going in that we absolutely needed to hit on our picks. So I went all in with less sexy selections in the first half dozen rounds, staying away from 2014-15's risers/trending picks, opting to jump all over Duncan Keith notably. I took him as my first defenseman, in the 5th round, 57th overall. Moreover, he was the 7th blueliner taken until that point (after Erik Karlsson, P.K. Subban, Shea Weber, Dustin Byfuglien, Dion Phaneuf & Drew Doughty).

 

My colleague, Steve Laidlaw, lambasted me in the DobberHockey Ramblings a couple days later in his extensive Draft Review segment, in lieu of passing on Victor Hedman to take Keith when I did. His reasoning was rather fair, insofar as identifying Keith as being averse to hitting (a category of ours) and the fact he adjudges Hedman to be on a meteoric rise to uber-elite status, amongst rearguards.

 

I'll admit I may have overlooked the lack of hitting to a degree. After all, Keith abysmally averaged less than one hit every two games last season! However, it didn't cause me to resist the temptation, fully knowing how incredibly valuable his overall fantasy package is.

 

Let me make my argument for Duncan Keith not only being worthy of selection in the seven slot for Defensemen, but how he may well have been a slight steal at the 57th pick overall, for our format.

 

First of all, last I checked, Mr. Keith was awarded a pretty darn substantial accolade this past summer in Las Vegas, if you recall. Of course, I'm not numb to the fact that elements going into consideration for the Norris Trophy differ in several ways from consideration for fantasy appeal. The defensive awareness, responsibility, dependability in the clutch of a player, etc. are all moot points in fantasy hockey by most respects.

TOR

D

10

31

10

168

19

230

25

Drew Doughty

LAK

D

13

30

20

179

18

180

31

Keith Yandle

ARI

D

10

45

0

219

23

20

34

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

ARI

D

16

33

0

172

19

135

39

Duncan Keith

CHI

D

6

49

20

176

19

40

40

Cody Franson

TOR

D

5

34

0

99

17

260

43

Brent Burns

SJS

RW/D

13

32

0

208

13

150

44

Kevin Shattenkirk

STL

D

10

37

10

174

22

70

46

Jack Johnson

CBJ

D

5

33

0

163

18

180

47

Ryan Suter

MIN

D

7

42

10

145

23

70

49

Niklas Kronwall

DET

D

10

40

0

124

24

95

50

Alex Pietrangelo

STL

D

9

43

20

178

20

25

51

Zdeno Chara

BOS

D

15

22

20

197

12

165

56

John Carlson

WSH

D

11

38

10

177

18

65

60

Kris Letang

PIT

D

11

36

10

166

19

70

65

Alex Goligoski

DAL

D

7

43

0

141

18

90

66

Torey Krug

BOS

D

14

28

20

177

20

50

69

Alexander Edler

VAN

D

8

26

0

205

16

130

75

Victor Hedman

TBL

D

12

44

10

133

10

85

 

In terms of Overall Average Position Drafted, as presented by Yahoo! from this past draft season, amongst all leagues, Keith went an average of 39th overall. So, although that isn't specific to the parameters of our Experts league, nor does it remove all of the outlier GM/drafters in North America, the fact is tens of thousands resort to standardized auto drafts. This means that the outliers may be equalized a fair bit, rendering these average position drafted figures, still somewhat useful; even if not all that accurate with respect to where players SHOULD have been drafted on average.

 

Keith is now a two-time defending gold medalist. While it's rather abstract, I feel it's reasonable that since he played a key role for Canada in their first success on large ice surface this year, it's become just one more element elevating his personal acumen and self-confidence in the game on the whole.

 

Finally, with a multi-point effort on the road, in Chicago's season opener last night, including notching the team's first goal of the year, another large season may well be in store for Keith (and a happy fantasy owner in yours truly, to boot!).

 

(Give Anthony Lancione a follow on Twitter @Anthisdaman)

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