Forensics: Jeff Carter

Anthony Lancione

2014-05-09

JeffCarter


What should we expect from Jeff Carter these days?


The 2014 Playoffs have been a joy to follow thus far, given the near unprecedented degree of unpredictability shown with the record number of comebacks both in-game and for series' on the whole. Naturally, beginning with the Los Angeles Kings and their epic 3-0 series erasing, we've seen a real departure from traditional shutdown playoff hockey. Where franchises used to get ultra defensive with a mere one-goal lead and contests being essentially game-set-match once a two-goal lead was born, the pace and rate of high level counterattacks is proving to be a bi-product of more parity.

 

One of the stars of the aforementioned Kings, Jeff Carter, has been in typical strong productive form at most times during the playoffs so far, putting up 8 points in 10 games. Typically a decent playoff performer, with 53 points in 94 playoff matchups, he's on pace to eclipse the 13 point threshold he hit in L.A. 2012 cup run and again in last season's conference finals run (should they advanced out of this series).

 

This time, however, is the first playoff run in a while he's not playing running mate to long fellow Gold Medal/Stanley Cup/World Junior champion teammate and pal, Mike Richards. This is mostly due to the latter having drifted to a less offensive role in recent months and over the past couple seasons on the whole. Mike was and over a point per game player from 2007 through 2009, and has been about a two-third point per game in each season until this year where he hit his lowest career PPG rate (0.5) since his rookie season in 2005-06.

 

LOS ANGELES

 

Jeff Carter’s 2012-13 Most Common Linemate Generator — Via FrozenPools

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

27.87%

EV

77 CARTER,JEFF – 74 KING,DWIGHT – 10 RICHARDS,MIKE

15.52%

EV

77 CARTER,JEFF – 25 PENNER,DUSTIN – 10 RICHARDS,MIKE

11.34%

EV

77 CARTER,JEFF – 25 PENNER,DUSTIN – 73 TOFFOLI,TYLER

6.4%

PP

77 CARTER,JEFF – 11 KOPITAR,ANZE – 10 RICHARDS,MIKE

3.29%

SH

77 CARTER,JEFF – 10 RICHARDS,MIKE

 

Once re-united with Richards, the two not only reached the cup finals together for the second tie in three years, but showed that they were not the cancer in the room that they were made out to be a year earlier on Broad street, winning their first cup with the Kings.

 

Jeff Carter’s 2011-12 Most Common Linemate Generator — Via FrozenPools

**Cup Finals Run / Triumph**

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

47.88%

EV

77 CARTER,JEFF – 25 PENNER,DUSTIN – 10 RICHARDS,MIKE

14.12%

EV

77 CARTER,JEFF – 74 KING,DWIGHT – 10 RICHARDS,MIKE

9.31%

PP

77 CARTER,JEFF – 11 KOPITAR,ANZE – 10 RICHARDS,MIKE

3.47%

SH

77 CARTER,JEFF – 10 RICHARDS,MIKE

3.21%

PP

77 CARTER,JEFF – 25 PENNER,DUSTIN – 10 RICHARDS,MIKE

 

In Philly, Carter enjoyed plenty of success with Mike as well as Simon Gagne (see below), as the trio put up a litany of lamp-lighters over half a decade, culminating in the 2010 Eastern Conference Triumph & Stanley Cup Finals Appearance.

 

PHILADELPHIA

Jeff Carter’s 2009-10 Most Common Linemate Generator — Via FrozenPools

**Cup Finals Run**


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Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

37.52%

EV

17 CARTER,JEFF – 12 GAGNE,SIMON – 18 RICHARDS,MIKE

14.26%

EV

48 BRIERE,DANIEL – 17 CARTER,JEFF – 19 HARTNELL,SCOTT

3.94%

PP

17 CARTER,JEFF – 12 GAGNE,SIMON – 18 RICHARDS,MIKE

3.47%

EV

17 CARTER,JEFF – 28 GIROUX,CLAUDE – 18 RICHARDS,MIKE

3.38%

EV

13 CARCILLO,DANIEL – 17 CARTER,JEFF – 18 RICHARDS,MIKE

 

Along with a myriad of stars the 2009-10 Flyers had a ton of success with Carter at the forefront of it all, competing in a excellent cup Finals faceoff with the Hawks.

 

All in all, Carter, now 29 years of age, can still snipe with the best of them. Afterall, it was one of the prime reasons he was selected controversially by Stevie Yzerman for the 2014 Canadian Olympic Squad. He scored 53 goals in the past 1.5 seasons with L.A. and his two and change playoff seasons in California, he's already netted 17. This year though, we're seeing some different from him – distribution! With five assists in 10 games (0.5 APG rate), Carter is doling out assists at the highest clip of his entire career, playoffs or regular season!

 

This helping hand trend can be attributable perhaps to his being situated with, yet another prolific goal scorer, Marian Gaborik. It bemusing me as to why you'd put two such shoot-first guys together on a one line, but it seems to be working. I'd love to see a chart tracking types of goals, as I have a hunch many of Carter's assist have come from Gabby banking his Carter's initial shots that produced a rebound.  Its also doesn't hurt to have the NHL's playoff leading scorer, Anze Kopitar filling out the trio, having recorded at least a point in all 10 contests so far, leading the way with 15 total. A bi product of this is Jeff's decent output.

 

                                     

Total Points for Jeff Carter : 8

Str

On Ice Line Combination

Points

%Total
Points

PP

CARTER,JEFF – GABORIK,MARIAN – KOPITAR,ANZE

3

37.5%

EV

CARTER,JEFF – PEARSON,TANNER – RICHARDS,MIKE – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1

12.5%

PP

CARTER,JEFF – GABORIK,MARIAN – KOPITAR,ANZE – RICHARDS,MIKE

1

12.5%

EV

CARTER,JEFF – PEARSON,TANNER – TOFFOLI,TYLER

1

12.5%

EV

CARTER,JEFF – KING,DWIGHT – LEWIS,TREVOR

1

12.5%

EV

BROWN,DUSTIN – CARTER,JEFF – LEWIS,TREVOR

1

12.5%

 

The feeling is that Carter still has plenty left in the tank. As long as he remains on the hottest line in hockey, we can continue to expect him to flourish in this playoff campaign.

 

Give Anthony Lancione a follow on Twitter @Anthisdaman

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