November 4, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-11-04

Vladimir Tarasenko scores the goal of the year, why he is a legitimate breakout star and more…

 

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Heck of a game between the Blues and Rangers. It certainly felt like New York might have the Blues' number having beaten them earlier in the year and then jumping out to a 1-0 lead after one period by dominating the play, winning the shot battle 15-4.

 

But the Blues righted the ship in the second period and knotted things up. Then things opened up in a back-and-forth third as the teams swapped leads before going into overtime tied 3-3. Overtime decided nothing and it was off to the skills competition. I only care who won because I have Brian Elliott in a couple of pools, otherwise it would be mostly irrelevant to me.

 

Elliott was awesome in this one. The game gets away from the Blues in the first if not for his stout goaltending.

 

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On the other side of the ice Cam Talbot was in for just his second start of the season. He's now lost both games but I don't think that's reason not to use him. I know Henrik Lundqvist is a workhorse but studies are showing that it's increasingly valuable to rest your starters and use your backups. With Lundqvist struggling early once again it makes sense to utilize Talbot more frequently.

 

Of course, the Rangers have only had one back-to-back so far and only have 11 more this season. With the schedule a little bit looser this season given the lack of Olympics or lockout that compressed the last two seasons there are less back-to-backs and more rest available. Talbot may not really become valuable until March when the Rangers have four back-to-back scenarios and Lundqvist might be worn out by then.

 

To me, it makes more sense to utilize Talbot now so that you have Lundqvist fresher come March when the games become even higher leverage.

 

But the Rangers probably need Lundqvist right now. They basically have only one line with Derek Stepan injured and are also out their franchise defenseman and captain in Ryan McDonagh. Things could really get away from them in a hurry.

 

That one line is sizzling though. Rick Nash is second in the league with nine goals this season. He's a sell-high candidate though given his exorbitantly high shooting percentage of 25% at the moment. He had a sweet saucer pass to Martin St. Louis for the go-ahead goal late in the third.

 

 

One of these days the Blues are going to unleash Tarasenko full-time. He has combined with Jori Lehtera and Jaden Schwartz to form one of the most dominant lines in the league the past couple of weeks. I hope they keep it together because they have huge potential.

 

What would really let these guys bust out is if they got the full top unit power play treatment but all too often they are skating on the second unit. It technically doesn't matter what unit they skate on in St. Louis because Ken Hitchcock simply rotates his units evenly much like the Bruins do but I am calling for Schwartz and Tarasenko to get the top unit billing you see on so many teams.

 

Hitchcock would argue that that would be unnecessary. St. Louis was tied for fifth in power play efficiency last season and are ranked seventh this season while clicking at an even higher rate. They don't need to ride any one unit. That's fair, I'm just a selfish fantasy player. Actually, I'm not even being selfish, I don't have Tarasenko on any of my fantasy rosters. I just want to see him achieve his potential because why not? He's an absolute stud. Maybe he gets 70 points this season in spite of Hitchcock.

 

I'm not saying that off-hand either. I really believe that Tarasenko can get there in spite of his usage. Did you know that he's sitting fifth in the league in SOG behind just Patrick Sharp, Claude Giroux, Steven Stamkos and Alex Ovechkin? He's at 49 SOG in just 11 games. That's over four per game, or a 320+ pace. That's superstar type shooting. I am fully on board here.

 

There is some regression coming. Tarasenko's on-ice shooting percentage is at 13.3%, which is completely unsustainable and since we know he doesn't get enough power play time, he won't have that to buoy him throughout the season. Or does he? He's already at four PPP this season and is on pace for near 30 for the season.

 

The good thing about the forward depth in St. Louis is that the Blues can skate their veterans Paul Stastny, David Backes and Alexander Steen against their opponents' top lines and shield Tarasenko/Schwartz from elite matchups. I don't even think they necessarily need shielding but more favourable matchups will obviously help Tarasenko's fantasy numbers.

 

We do still need to see if Tarasenko can sustain this shot output and if he can stay healthy. He hasn't played a season without missing double-digit games so far and his career high was 64 games last season. I've been down on players because of "stamina" concerns in the past though and have been burned. It should be in the back of your mind but I wouldn't say that Tarasenko is certainly unreliable. He's one worth giving the benefit of the doubt. Don't sell high unless you are getting a bonafide superstar, say Patrick Kane for instance. Otherwise, hold on tight. It's clearly going to be a fun ride.

 

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As promised, this Tuesday you'll get your weekly Jeff Schultz Memorial Trophy race update:

 

1. Anton Stralman – Plus-13

 

Not much to report here. Greene sits behind Damon Severson, Eric Gelinas and Marek Zidlicky in terms of offensive potential on the Devils but the Devils are a solid possession team. Greene has a real shot here.

 

T2. Marco Scandella – Plus-Nine

 

You might think that Scandella's candidacy would fall apart when the Penguins come to town tonight but the Penguins do much of their damage on the power play so Scandella might be safe. He's also skating on one of the league's most fearsome possession teams. He's in a good spot here.

 

T4. Hampus Lindholm – Plus-Eight

 

You want to hear a terrifying stat? The Ducks currently rank 21st in the league in shooting percentage at even strength. They are already running teams over. What happens when the puck starts going in at a league-average rate?

 

That being said, Lindholm hasn't suffered from poor teammate shooting. His on-ice shooting percentage is above average at 10.3%. Still, on this team he's a lock to be in the running for this trophy, especially with Sami Vatanen and Cam Fowler ahead of him on the depth chart.

 

T4. Marc-Edouard Vlasic – Plus-Eight

 

Last season's co-champion is at it again but he is on some shaky ground. The Sharks are scoring at a high rate once again (3.00 goals per game) but they are barely outscoring opponents at even strength. The Sharks also grade out as one of the worst possession teams in the league. Possession isn't everything, of course but if the Sharks are going to rely on clicking on a high percentage of their power plays to overcome even-strength woes then Vlasic is not going to benefit with a continually high plus/minus.

 

6. Jonas Brodin – Plus-Seven

 

T7. Christian Ehrhoff – Plus-Six

 

T7. Nate Schmidt – Plus-Six

 

I hope you guys love this weekly feature because I think it's both informative and hilarious.

 

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If you guys are curious I currently lead the Dobber Experts League by a healthy amount, though at this point in the season no lead in rotisserie can really be that large. I'm one night away from being in like fifth or something.

 

I have ridden my goaltending to the top spot currently holding down 30 of a possible 33 goalie points. With Wins, GAA and Saves as our three goaltending categories I knew that there was as much value in quantity of starts as in quality. Sure, I nabbed Carey Price and Braden Holtby high because I wanted quality starts but even with their early struggles I've been able to lock down goaltending.

 

You can credit some hot starts for Darcy Kuemper and Jonas Hiller for that. Really, these two have been more valuable than my top two goalies thus far. That would be concerning but I'm optimistic that Price and Holtby will find their form in time to carry me once Hiller falls off and Kuemper should be good all season.

 

I've also had some unlikely health so far. I've only got Torey Krug (and I suppose Daniel Alfredsson) out injured. Otherwise, my starting lineup has seen remarkable health so far. We'll see if that holds up but I'm enjoying the fact that I haven't had to burn many of my limited moves (we only allow 25 this season) having only picked up Anton Stralman, Jared Spurgeon and Brock Nelson as fill-ins.

 

I've also seemingly been rewarded for my patience with Johnny Gaudreau. After sitting him on my bench for the first couple of weeks I've opened up a spot for him just as he's gone on a hot streak. I don't think it continues. Gaudreau's on-ice shooting percentage is above 15%. But I'm enjoying the ride right now. If only I can find someone in the league to buy high!

 

I should mention that Russ Miller's Eastern Edge squad is on my heels in second place. His squad was voted the top team coming out of the draft.

 

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Sportsnet takes a look at some of the good and bad starts around the league according to the fancy stats:

 

The Avalanche might be missing the departed Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau (61.97%), who has the highest Z-Score Adjusted FF% on the Montreal Canadiens.

 

Explain to me again why Parenteau spent the last game rotting on the third line?

 

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The Devils have sent Scott Clemmensen down to the minors. Not much fantasy relevance here. You might get a start out of Keith Kinkaid but otherwise you aren't missing out on anything here. Cory Schneider is the workhorse in New Jersey.

 

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Uh oh, Patrick Roy called out Jarome Iginla after their loss on Sunday. The Avalanche are already suffering that regression we expected and now frustration is setting in.

 

I'm fine if this team wants to play wide open hockey and allow a bunch of goals so long as they are scoring plenty too. Unfortunately, they are currently in the bottom third of the league at 23rd overall in team scoring. That hurts too many fantasy teams.

 

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Thumbs up to David Leggio for this creative way of breaking up a two-on-none rush. Don't get me wrong, it's totally unsportsmanlike but the rules say that knocking your net off intentionally results in a penalty shot, which is one-on-zero. I'm not great at math but one is less than two right? That's just a logical move right there. He'd stop the shootout attempt too.

 

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After getting struck in the eye with a puck Kevin Bieksa is day-to-day but is travelling with the team. Looks to have dodged a serious injury here.

 

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Who knew the Dalai Lama had such poor taste?

 

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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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