November 11, 2014

Cammalleri is good, Elias has intriguing splits, Giordano to regress and more…

 

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Take a moment out of your day to remember those who fought and continue to fight for our freedom. Lest we forget.

 

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Good news, Cory Schneider wasn't yanked for the third straight start. Of course, he also allowed four goals for yet another loss. If he had been pulled after the second I wouldn't have been surprised. After all, he did allow four goals on 20 shots through two periods. Schneider has started every game for the Devils this season. When are we going to see Kinkaid? Schneider needs a break.

 

You can't totally blame Schneider. The Devils haven't been playing that puck possession game that has been their trademark for years. In fact, the Devils have been a negative possession team so far this season.

 

They've also been fairly banged up. Adam Henrique and Ryane Clowe both missed last night's contest.

 

The Devils did get Mike Cammalleri back, which was a huge boost. He was easily their best player. He notched two assists and generated a number of other chances including one which he rung off the bar. He definitely still has skills.

 

Cammalleri is key to getting this team scoring. His return immediately paid dividends for Travis Zajac and Jaromir Jagr who each scored goals skating on the top line with Cammalleri. At this point those three might be the only Devil forwards I'm interested in owning and really, I'm only interested if Cammalleri is healthy. Zajac, in particular, is droppable if one of his wingers is hurt.

 

They do have Patrik Elias who is intriguing. From what I've seen this season he's been frisky but they haven't given him much to work with. Elias has skated with the likes of Clowe, Damian Brunner, Martin Havlat, Dainius Zubrus, Henrique, and Michael Ryder, which is like a who's who of middling forwards.

 

Elias also hasn't had much puck luck. He's personally shooting just 5.3% despite being a career 12.4% shooter. Meanwhile, he and his linemates have combined for just 3.4% shooting while Elias has been on the ice at even strength. He might just be the unluckiest player so far this season (other than those who have suffered injuries.)

 

At some point it's going to flip and Elias is going to be worth owning. I wish I knew when that was. The good news is we can consults these things known as split stats. I don't usually buy into splits all that much, especially not for younger players because the sample size is usually so small but for Elias we have sample sizes that are larger than two seasons' worth of games so we can probably draw some conclusions. Check out his month-by-month points per-game splits:

 

October – 0.76

November – 0.72

December – 0.82

January – 0.91

February – 0.91

March – 0.89

April – 0.90

 

These samples still aren't outside the realm of random chance but it would certainly seem that if ever there was a case to be made about a player being a slow starter, it would be for Elias. If you combine October through December to determine a first-half average and January through April for a second-half average, you are basically looking at the difference between a 62-point pace and a 74-point pace, which in a lot of pools is the difference between the waiver wire and a regular lineup spot.

 

I'm skeptical but if you are going to buy into splits then look for Elias to wake up right around New Year's.

 

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I'm going to speak for all Tuukka Rask owners when I say that I am quite pleased that he is back to his normal self. We never doubted you, big fella! And sure, his numbers this season are still on the wrong side of average. Rask still hasn't recorded a shutout yet this season either. But he's won four in a row now in satisfyingly efficient fashion.

 

Reilly Smith appears to be waking up as well. Patrice Bergeron was the big scorer for Boston last night with three points but he helped bring Smith along with him for two of his own. Smith now has five points in his last three games and seven in his last seven. Enjoy the streak while you can but don't get left holding the bag when it ends. Smith is finishing up with right around 50 points once again, no matter how he gets there.

 

What's interesting is that Brad Marchand, Smith and Bergeron's linemate, had a fantastic game but finished with no points, ending a four-game scoring streak in which he had scored seven points. He always plays with fire but it seems to have been burning especially bright under his rear end of late. I'm going to say that Marchand is responding positively to this new found thing called power play ice time, which had eluded him for much of his first few years in Boston.

 

Marchand's upside totally changes if power play time becomes a regular occurrence for him. Thus far his career high is 55, which came in 2011-12 when he scored six points on the power play. Marchand also has another season of 53, which saw him score just two PPP. If he can continue to produce ~50 even-strength points then with a regular power play shift his upside moves from 50-60 into the 65-75 range. I'm still treating Marchand like a 50-point guy until proven otherwise but I'm intrigued by where this could lead.

 

Do I mention the dive Marchand took late in the third last night? Okay, I mentioned it. Anyone surprised? Okay. Moving on.

 

Torey Krug made his return to the Bruin lineup and not a moment too soon with the injuries continuing to mount for the Bruins. He was pointless with one shot in 21:16 but I didn't see any visible signs of rust.

 

David Krejci missed last night's contest. He's really had the injury bug going the past few weeks. I say "injury bug" because the team hasn't officially disclosed his injury. Scuttlebutt on Twitter has it as his hip. I say take as much time as needed and comeback HEALTHY. No more stopping and starting.

 

Even without Krejci in the lineup Seth Griffith continues to produce. Okay, that's kind of a lie, his goal last night was his first in five games but you have to applaud the amazing effort: