Blocked Shots (per game)

Shots

(per game)

PP Points

(per game)

2014-15

0.44 (A.G.)

0.25 (T.T.)

2.44 (A.G.)

1.375 (T.T.)

0.66 (A.G.)

0.125 (T.T.)

2.55 (A.G.)

2.25 (T.T.)

0.22 (A.G.)

0.375 (T.T.)

2013-14

0.40 (A.G.)

0.16 (T.T.)

0.75 (A.G.)

0.92 (T.T.)

0.38 (A.G.)

0.13 (T.T.)

1.69 (A.G.)

2.00 (T.T.)

0.15 (A.G.)

0.06 (T.T.)

2012-13

0.41 (A.G.)

0.20 (T.T.)

0.48 (A.G.)

0.40 (T.T.)

0.52 (A.G.)

0.10 (T.T.)

1.64 (A.G.)

2.00 (T.T.)

0.02 (A.G.)

0.20 (T.T.)

 

For 2013-14, Toffoli held a slight advantage in Hits, but was especially weak in Blocked Shots; however, if your league counts both categories, the players were pretty even. In PIM, Galchenyuk has consistently produced better than Toffoli, who, in turn, had previously posted a 15-20% greater Shots average versus Galchenyuk. As far as PP Points, it was most telling that Toffoli did so poorly compared to Galchenyuk in 2013-14 despite both receiving similar PP Ice Time and each generally skating with his team's PP2 unit.

Looking at the early trends for 2014-15, Galchenyuk's averages have spiked upward in Hits, Shots, and PP Points, while Toffoli has seen a huge jump in PP Points and smaller increases in Shots and Hits. When the dust settles on 2014-15, I'd bank on each besting his 2013-14 average in all three categories.

 

Luck-Based Metrics

Note that 5×4 IPP isn't charted, since the minimum number of minutes required is 50; neither player hit that mark in 2012-13, and both have yet to do so in 2014-15. For what it's worth, Galchenyuk had a 70.0% IPP at 5×4 in 2013-14, while Toffoli's was 50.0%.

 

Season	Personal Shooting Percentage	PDO (5×5)	IPP (5×5)	Offensive Zone Starting % (5×5)
2014-15	13.0% (A.G.) 22.2% (T.T.)	975 (A.G.) 1172 (T.T.)	57.1% (A.G.) 72.7% (T.T.)	49.4% (A.G.) 50.0% (T.T.)
2013-14	11.8% (A.G.) 10.0% (T.T.)	971 (A.G.) 1040 (T.T.)	78.3% (A.G.) 75.9% (T.T.)	50.5% (A.G.) 58.0% (T.T.)
2012-13	11.4% (A.G.) 9.7% (T.T.)	1045 (A.G.) 1064 (T.T.)	78.1% (A.G.) 50.0% (T.T.)	58.5% (A.G.) 58.0% (T.T.)

 

There's no sugarcoating this – Toffoli's PDO numbers are stratospherically high. And although we can discount the 1064 PDO from 2012-13 somewhat since it was in a 10 game trial, last year's 1040 not only was 40 points higher than LA's team PDO of 1000, but it also exceeded the second highest PDO from a Kings forward by 13 (Anze Kopitar's 1027) and was tied for 8th highest among all NHL forwards who played 60+ games. And although it's still early, his 1172 for 2014-15 ranks as the second highest in the entire NHL among forwards (second only to linemate Carter's 1173), which certainly isn't good to see accompanying his points explosion.

With Galchenyuk, his drop in production from 2012-13 to 2013-14 was accompanied by a massive plunge in his PDO, suggesting there was realistic room for improvement in 2014-15 and beyond. And we have to like what we see so far for 2014-15, as his seven points in nine games have come despite a very low PDO and a big drop in 5×5 IPP, suggesting his early production is sustainable.

 

Value vs. Cost/Positional Eligibility

As of October 27th, Toffoli was owned in 66% of all Yahoo leagues, with Galchenyuk close behind at 60%. And despite the fact that Galchenyuk has coveted multi-positional eligibility on Yahoo (C and LW) versus Toffoli's RW only status, it was Toffoli who was grabbed nearly two full rounds earlier (fifth pick, 16th round) than Galchenyuk (first pick, 18th round) in the DobberHockey Experts League.

Although Galchenyuk suffers from what I call the "Habs factor" (where players on the highest profile teams end up getting a boost in perceived value, due to dedicated, widespread fan support) Toffoli is certainly enjoying a similar boost despite playing in a less hockey-crazed market, since he got lots of face time in last year's playoffs. In short, each player might cost you more to obtain in trade than he should, due to name recognition.

Their value vs. cost in one year leagues should be pretty similar despite Toffoli's torrid start, which fantasy GMs would be quick to discount even if they hadn't seen this data. Galchenyuk probably has more perceived value in non-Cap keeper leagues, due to his younger age, status as a recent top NHL draft pick, and better track record of production.

 

Who Wins?

Galchenyuk wins this match in all leagues except those where Cap/AAV matters. The data shows that Toffoli's production will almost assuredly come back to earth with a crashing thud due to unsustainable luck-based metrics and the risk that his productive Ice Time won't be high enough to prevent a ceiling being placed upon his production. Meanwhile, Galchenyuk's uptick in production is entirely logical due to improved linemates and Ice Time, and, more importantly, is sustainable based on his luck-based metrics data.

The other factor that can't be overlooked is Marian Gaborik's absence from the Kings lineup over the last five games (in which Toffoli posted nine points). The reality is Toffoli didn't see even 13:00 of total Ice Time in any of the three games that Gaborik appeared. And while Toffoli has played well enough to remain an offensive focal point even after Gaborik returns from injury, Gabby was signed by the Kings to be the team's marque RW and is likely seen as a key to get LA's top forward – Anze Kopitar – out of his early season slump (three points in eight games).

No doubt both players are highly desirable in keeper leagues. But the multi-positional Galchenyuk holds the edge there too, as Marian Gaborik is signed through 2020-21, thus acting as a long term potential barrier to Toffoli receiving truly prime minutes at even strength or on the PP. Meanwhile, Galchenyuk should be a top line fixture for the Habs once David Desharnais' deal ends after the 2016-17 season, if not sooner.