December 9, 2014
steve laidlaw
2014-12-09
Buy low on Staal, Brodeur wins another, get on Bjugstad and Ekblad right meow and more…
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Those of you who scooped up Steve Downie, after Patric Hornqvist went down, were finally rewarded with a couple of points, including the goal that sent the game to overtime. Downie stands to be useful asset as long as Hornqvist is out.
The Pittsburgh sniper is still being evaluated after a head injury last week. We all know it's really a concussion, even if they don't want to put that label on it. With that in mind, it's really hard to say what kind of time Hornqvist might miss. Downie could be out of the top-six by the time the Penguins play again or he could be hot into 2015.
The Penguins injuries are getting ridiculous though. They were lucky to escape with a point last night considering the talent level on the active roster.
One guy I was hoping would step up is Christian Ehrhoff. He's got a golden opportunity with Kris Letang out and he has the track record of producing. Letang has missed five games now but Ehrhoff has just two points.
Both of those points were goals and considering how banged up this roster is perhaps a 0.4-point per game pace isn't that bad. Ehrhoff has also been shooting the crap out of the puck with 18 SOG in the past five games, an average of 3.6 SOG per contest. He averaged just under two SOG per game over the previous 22 with a healthy Letang. So the scoring may still come even if it hasn't in massive amounts.
To be clear, Ehrhoff becomes droppable once Letang returns though.
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Last night was Henrik Lundqvist's first action since getting shredded by the Lightning exactly a week earlier. Seven days is an unheard of break for Lundqvist but it seems to have done him well in stopping 32 of 35 in a big win over the Penguins. Experienced managers know better than to doubt Lundqvist but for those of you frustrated with his play, hold on tight. It will only get better.
Dan Boyle has been back for a couple of games now but that short absence was all it took to launch Ryan McDonagh back into the first chair among Ranger defensemen. McDonagh skated a team high 5:44 on the power play last night, while Boyle clocked in at 3:43.
You might have some temptation to go after another Ranger defenseman, Kevin Klein, after he scored the game-winner last night, hitting double-digits for the season. Resist that temptation. Klein has been wielding a hot stick with six goals so far, which is already a career high and he's shot 21% to do it. I wouldn't be shocked if Klein didn't score another goal all season. For those of you in archaic leagues that still score game-winners this was Klein's third of the season, meaning he has been one valuable guy so far. Too bad you can't retroactively cherry pick his hot start.
Rick Nash, ladies and gentlemen:
I think what's been most maddening for Staal owners is how he has lacked explosion. He has just one multi-point game this season, while the rest of his game log has played out like a computer program. That's not necessarily the worst thing in the world, until you hit that string of goose eggs.
Staal has had some terrible luck so far with an on-ice shooting percentage so low it's staggering. He and his teammates are shooting just 4.38% while he's on the ice at even strength. You won't find another fantasy-relevant name lower than his on that list, making him possibly the unluckiest player in the league so far. (You're right, it's definitely Pascal Dupuis.)
The terrible linemates Staal has had to skate with are unlikely to change simply because the Hurricanes don't have much to offer on that front, especially with Alexander Semin and the head coach not seeing eye to eye.
Semin, by the way, was scratched due to injury last night.
I continue to be baffled that the coaches won't play Jeff Skinner and Staal together on a consistent basis. Sparks always fly when they play together. It just doesn't seem like it's in the cards.
Still, even with no lineup changes, Staal can't continue to be this unlucky. Bounces will happen and his scoring will come up. Make your pitch for him.
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The Devils had to hang on for dear life last night. Nursing a 2-1 lead heading into the third, they were outshot 17-1 in the final frame. Cory Schneider was up to the task turning aside all 17 of those to complete a 39-save gem for just his second win in the last two weeks.
Don't be fooled by the lack of winning though. Schneider has really turned the corner over the last month or so.
Don't expect many wins though. The Devils are really banged up right now. So banged up in fact that Scott Gomez had to play over 18 minutes for them. I'm not sure what's more terrifying, Gomez playing 18 minutes for an NHL team at this point or that he got two assists in the game. We might be headed for the apocalypse.
One positive of these injuries, power play time for Adam Henrique. I think it's time the Devils start using him in a larger role offensively. I know that Henrique is huge for them defensively, especially as a penalty killer but he has more to offer offensively than they seem to give him credit for.
With Travis Zajac being the physical representation of the term "blah" and Patrik Elias struggling they might just consider sticking with Henrique as their #1 center even when those two return. I really think he can hack it.
One statistical note. Henrique is up to 21.1% shooting this season, which is unsustainably high but he's also a high percentage shooter who gets to the greasy areas so I don't hold that high shooting percentage against him the way I would other players.
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David Backes left last night's contest after getting hit in the face by a puck. He did return with a full cage but was limited to just 4:41. My presumption is that he won't miss any more time.
Alexander Steen missed his second straight game as he continues to observe the Band-Aid Boy ritual of lower-body injury.
In more positive news, Martin Brodeur is up to $40 K!
I wouldn't normally overreact to two straight wins but this is Ken Hitchcock we are talking about here. He likes hot hands so much I'm surprised he doesn't wear mittens on the bench.
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Nick Bjugstad's hot month continues with his 12th goal of the season. Over the past 30 days he's been the 22nd most valuable player in one of my fantasy leagues. I'm sure he's right around there in most leagues.
He probably won't continue to score goals at quite so high of a rate as hee is shooting 16.9% right now but I think he continue to score at around a 60-point pace the rest of the way. One thing that really intrigues me is how Bjugstad has remained productive despite having a carcass for a linemate in Tomas Fleischmann.
I'd blame this mostly on Fleischmann but Bjugstad's on-ice shooting percentage at even strength is still sitting on the low side at 6.95% so even after a hot month, Bjugstad has still arguably had poor luck this season. That luck may not change since there aren't really alternatives for the Panthers. So it will be interesting to see if Bjugstad is so good that he overcomes his surroundings.
If you've got some time, check out NHL.com's timely deep dive on Bjugstad.
Another Panther exceeding expectations is rookie defenseman Aaron Ekblad. He is tied with Bjugstad for the team lead in scoring at 18. I never would have imagined Ekblad had this much fantasy upside in him, let alone that he'd produce it this soon. Not that I didn't expect Ekblad to be an impact player out of the gate, just not an impact fantasy player. This is incredible. It's what I imagine we'd see from Seth Jones if he ever gets out from Shea Weber's shadow.
That said, let's focus on Ekblad, a player whose production is so strong that it's a challenge to pick it apart by looking at underlying stats. Admittedly, Ekblad's 9.4% shooting is high for a defenseman but his on-ice shooting percentage is right around average at 7.98%, though on this Panther team that counts for high.
Another red flag that could mean something is the fact that Ekblad's 18 points constitute 31% of Florida's entire offense. You'd expect to see that figure much lower what with 17 other skaters in the lineup on a nightly basis and typically four other teammates on the ice at any given time and a maximum of three points given out for any goal.
I have to preach caution though. Ekblad is scoring at a 57-point pace right now but I just cannot fathom a world where he finishes with that amount. I think even 45 would be an optimistic projection and that's after acknowledging how good he has been.
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