The 2014-15 NHL Calder Race

Dobber

2014-12-10

AaronEkblad

 

Dobber takes a look at the Calder Trophy race and gives his updated picks.

With approximately 25 games in the books, we have a much better handle on how the rookie race is shaping up, as well as which rookies provide fantasy value in the immediate future. We know that John Gibson is in the AHL for the duration, barring an injury to Frederick Andersen. We know that Sam Reinhart is back in junior and Sam Bennett will be when he recovers from injury. And after a great camp and start to the season, Anthony Duclair will be going to the WJC – he may have trouble getting back on the roster again this season as a result (I’ve seen it many times before).

I’ve put together a list of 15 rookies who will put together a strong enough 50 or 55 games to impress and at times garner fantasy value. I’ll note my preseason Calder ranking. Note that this is not a ranking of their play to date, but their anticipated play for the duration of the season.

7. Kevin Hayes, NY Rangers (preseason ranking: 20) – As with most young players, Hayes needed a month or two to get acclimated to the pro game. His size (6-2, 201) certainly helped, and he has eight points in his last 13 games. His ice time is still “third line” quality, which is around 11 or 12 minutes per game. He’ll take a run at 45 points this season (current pace is 35).

 

6. Vincent Trocheck, Florida (preseason ranking: 40) – The Panthers started scoring when Trocheck was back in the lineup. He has added another element of offense that has freed up other skilled players on the team. Trocheck’s minutes are sheltered, as he is seeing 55.8% offensive zone starts and the quality of competition that he faces is among the lowest on the team. On pace for 48 points, he should reach that and then some.

 

5. Jonathan Drouin, Tampa Bay (preseason ranking: 4) – After averaging nearly 19 minutes per game in his first four career NHL games, Drouin’s ice time is now sitting at a more manageable level for a rookie teenager (in that 11-12 minute range). Tampa Bay can afford it, given all the talent in the top nine. But one injury to a player in that top nine (how long can they avoid it?) and Drouin’s ice time spikes back up and the production will go along with it. On pace for 41 points, he’ll get 50 or 55 depending on when and for how long that injury strikes.

 

4. Jake Allen, St. Louis (preseason ranking: 6)Brian Elliott is out for an extended period of time and the smart money is on Allen taking the reins and banging out a big pile of Ws. Sure, Martin Brodeur has been playing well and getting the starts early on, but Ryan Miller started off well for the Blues too. Remember how that turned out? Allen seemed a little jittery playing in front of a Hall-of-Famer. Once he settles down and finds his groove again, he’ll push himself back into the Calder race.

 

3. Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary (preseason ranking: 3) – Probably the most exciting rookie to watch, the dynamic and diminutive Gaudreau regularly sees 18 to 20 minutes of ice time each game. He’s on pace for 60 points and rather than slowing down, he’s still picking up steam (six points in the last five games). How can 150-pound player continue to escape injury in this league? I’m not sure, but if he succeeds all season he is earmarked to be a Calder finalist.

 

2. Filip Forsberg, Nashville (preseason ranking: 10) – The top scoring rookie in the league is also the entire league’s plus/minus leader (plus-23). Forsberg is on pace for 82 points, but will probably slow to the mid-to-high 60s. With a PDO of 1092, which is the highest in the entire league with a minimum 20 games played, a market correction is almost a certainty.

 

1. Aaron Ekblad, Florida (preseason ranking: 2) – This year’s first overall pick not only made the team right away, but is leading it in scoring. Ekblad’s 18 points so far puts him on pace for 57. A defenseman who gets 55 points as a rookie (not to mention the intangibles) usually trumps a forward who gets 65 points as a rookie.

 

Notable absences: Mark Stone, Ottawa (just missed the cut); Michael Hutchinson, Winnipeg (still an Ondrej Pavelec injury away); Linden Vey, Vancouver (should surpass 40 points, which is just his current pace); Josh Jooris, Calgary (a surprise for all of us, but pace unsustainable – think 30 points instead); Mike Hoffman, Ottawa (pace also unsustainable), Damon Severson, New Jersey (slowing down significantly and that won’t change); Jiri Sekac, Montreal (current pace is about what he’ll end up with); Scott Darling, Chicago (hot play is likely temporary and Raanta will take over until Crawford returns)

 

The Fantasy Prospects Rankings are updated as of December 10 – check them out!

 

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