December 11, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-12-11

The impact of Chara’s return, the quirks of the Leafs’ upcoming schedule and more…

 

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Zdeno Chara could return tonight. Yeah buddy!

 

I opened with this story because it is important to make it clear that Chara's return WILL NOT hurt Dougie Hamilton. There are two reasons for this.

 

1. Hamilton and Chara normally skate together at even strength so Hamilton isn't going to be losing minutes at evens. If anything Chara's return helps Hamilton, although Dennis Seidenberg has been a rock alongside Hamilton while Chara has been out.

 

2. Boston divvies up the power play time evenly. While Chara and Hamilton operate on different power play units the return of Chara simply means kicking someone off of Unit A, having little to no effect on Hamilton's Unit B.

 

If you are looking for someone who will be hindered by Chara's return consider Brad Marchand who has gone from zero power play time to averaging 1:26 per game. Of course, Marchand has but one power-play point this season so he has hardly benefitted from those minutes but you could consider this a lost opportunity for future growth.

 

Also hurt by Chara's return is Joe Morrow who could find himself back in the minors.

 

One area I was going to say Chara might help is getting the Bruins more power play chances but after digging deeper I don't think that will be the case. Indeed, the Bruins could use more power play opportunities as they rank dead last but they are unlikely to get them. The Bruins finished dead last in power play chances in each of the previous two seasons and haven't finished out of the bottom 10 in any season since Claude Julien was named head coach. There's something about his philosophy that fails to create power plays at an average level.

 

That's not necessarily a bad thing. The Bruins have been a great team under Julien and they've had some superb fantasy performances. I just wonder if we wouldn't see David Krejci or Patrice Bergeron hit 80 points in a season if their coach had them playing a system where they drew more penalties and loaded up a top power play unit instead of splitting time equally. It might not happen anyway but it's an interesting thought experiment.

 

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James Reimer with a huge 41-save shootout win for the Leafs. We hadn't seen this guy since November 18th when he gave up six goals in back-to-back appearances. I wonder if the Leafs will retroactively place him on IR for those three weeks he sat claiming "bruised psyche" to garner some cap relief. That's a joke, of course, but I do wonder if some team could try that.

 

He earns a little more trust after last night. Can you imagine if he would have had another poor performance? We might not have seen Reimer again until 2015. As it stands, the Leafs have three back-to-backs between now and New Year's so Reimer could see some more action. In fact, it would surprise me if he got Saturday night's game against the Red Wings having already beaten them last night.

 

Interesting schedule quirk to make note of: the Leafs will play six games in nine nights from this Saturday through to Sunday, December 21. It could be worth loading up on Leafs for this weekend knowing this stretch is coming, though many of those games are on the common Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday circuit.

 

 

I talk a lot about usage in terms of minutes and linemates but this is one situation where that doesn't apply. Think about it this way. You can cram an elephant into a pink tutu and trot it out on stage but that doesn't mean it is performing ballet.

 

Ryan Kesler is heating up with goals in three straight. He and Sami Vatanen are the top options to shoot on the power play with Perry out. I also like this spot for Matt Beleskey and Kyle Palmieri lining up next to Kesler as he's heating up.

 

Beleskey scored the other Duck goal giving him seven in his last 11 games. Have I mentioned yet this season how ludicrously high Beleskey's shooting percentage is? Just to make sure, he's shooting 18.4%. There is a rude awakening headed. No reason not to enjoy the current spoils, however.

 

Freddie Andersen didn't have to do much work for his fifth straight win. That's the first time in a while that we've been able to say that though. Ideally, the Ducks would be getting reinforcements for their banged up skater group but instead the team has brought in Ilya Bryzgalov as backup goaltender. He fills a need as well but I think I can speak for all Andersen owners when I say that I kind of liked knowing that Andersen was going to start every night considering some of the games Bruce Boudreau likes to play with his goaltender starts.

 

I broke down the Bryzgalov signing earlier this week. Check it out if you haven't yet.

 

Hampus Lindholm gets saucy to spring Kesler:

 

 

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In a rare but not unheard of move, the Rangers have loaned Anthony Duclair to Hockey Canada for the upcoming World Junior tournament. There isn't much fantasy impact since Duclair had been alternating between healthy scratch and fourth line duty for the past couple weeks.

 

I think that the Rangers will have him back after the tournament rather than sending Duclair back to junior. They've already burnt a year off his ELC. They may as well use it. And this isn't a case where a young player is struggling. Duclair has been effective, he just has a lot of guys ahead of him.

 

But this does give the Rangers a chance to see life without Duclair. Maybe they reconfigure their roster and he's outside their top-13 forwards. At that point, why bother keeping him around?

 

Either way, Duclair doesn't have much relevance this season. He's an early Christmas gift for Hockey Canada though.

 

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Marco Scandella has been suspended for two games. He's not all that relevant but the Wild goaltenders will miss him.

 

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He's still not in great shape but Keith Ballard was released from hospital yesterday so that's good news.

 

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Puck Daddy names the 15 Biggest Disappointments of the season.

 

Mike Smith

Smith has a .894 save percentage at even strength, which is down from a .925 last season. Has he been hung out to dry by the team's defense? Slightly more than a wet bed sheet. Has he compensated for this by doing what goalies do, which is act as the last line of defense and cover up his team's defensive lapses? No, and that's why Devan Dubnyk's gotten more work than even Devan Dubnyk thought he would. Smith is in the second year of a 6-year, $34-million contract; do the Coyotes still have the receipt? If so, what's the refund policy?

 

Not a terrible list. They touched on most of the ones I'd mention. Here's one to talk about though:

 

Anze Kopitar

 

What's up with this guy? He has had some bad luck with a 6.47% on-ice shooting percentage at even strength.

 

The Kings' mediocre power play hasn't helped but Kopitar's always been productive on the power play even while the Kings as a whole have struggled. Only twice in his career has Kopitar failed to score 20 PPP in a season and one of those was the lockout shortened season where he reached 16 PPP and the other he missed seven games with an injury and got to 18 PPP. This season he's on pace for 10. So that hurts.

 

I swear there must be an injury we don't know about. He did miss three games with a lower-body injury earlier this year so perhaps that's nagging but I'm looking at his shot rate (1.8 per game down from 2.4 last year) and wondering if he's got a shoulder issue. You often see a decline in shot production with an upper-body injury, not a lower but who knows?

 

The Kings as a whole have struggled to dominate shot attempts the way they have historically (though they have still been positive by any measure.) A lot of people have talked about how key veterans like Dustin Brown, Justin Williams, Mike Richards and Jarret Stoll are struggling with all the miles they have on them. Perhaps Kopitar's struggles are mere product of his surroundings.

 

One thing I know is that the minutes are there for Kopitar. He's getting the ice time and the power play time he needs to produce. It simply hasn't come yet. The decline in shots is alarming. Not enough to scare me off from trying to buy. His second-half turnaround may come with an uptick in SOG. Kopitar has been too consistent an asset to turn your back on.

 

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Courtesy of Corey Pronman, your AHL leaders in SOG.

 

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Cory Schneider enjoys a beer on one of his seldom days off. Not actually though but fun picture.

 

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Sean McIndoe reminisces about the '96 St. Louis Blues.

 

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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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