December 26, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-12-26

Giving up on Parenteau, buying low on Stewart, some World Junior talk and more…

 

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I hope everyone had an excellent holiday. Now it’s Boxing Day, which means it’s time to get back to business. No NHL action today but that just means a bigger spotlight on the World Juniors. Before we get into all of that, I’d like to talk about a trade I made.

 

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I finally pulled it off. I acquired Chris Stewart for my fantasy team. Or at least, one of my teams. I snagged him for PA Parenteau and Rangers prospect Adam Tambellini.

 

I'm loathe to sell low on anyone but in this context I'm not sure that I am selling low on Parenteau since Stewart's stock is even lower and offers more upside. It's like I swapped trash bags with my neighbour. Hopefully we each get some goodies we can use.

 

Still, it stings to give up on Parenteau after I was so high on him before the season started. Unfortunately, he is simply not producing like I thought he would for Montreal. He has been used the right way (for the most part) by the Canadiens, it just hasn't worked out. Skating 15 minutes per game with over two minutes frequently on the top power play unit, Parenteau simply has not clicked scoring just 15 through 35 games.

 

Check out his most frequent line combinations:

 

Even Strength Line Combinations

Freq

Line Combination

48%

DESHARNAIS,D – PACIORETTY,M – PARENTEAU,P

28.5%

GALCHENYUK,A – PARENTEAU,P – PLEKANEC,T

10%

DESHARNAIS,D – PARENTEAU,P – PRUST,B

7.5%

BOURQUE,R – ELLER,L – PARENTEAU,P

6%

DESHARNAIS,D – ELLER,L – PARENTEAU,P

Power Play Line Combinations

Freq

Line Combination

51.2%

DESHARNAIS,D – PACIORETTY,M – PARENTEAU,P

27.2%

GALCHENYUK,A – PARENTEAU,P – PLEKANEC,T

9.9%

DESHARNAIS,D – PARENTEAU,P – PLEKANEC,T

8.5%

ANDRIGHETTO,S – DESHARNAIS,D – PARENTEAU,P

3.3%

DESHARNAIS,D – PACIORETTY,M – PARENTEAU,P – SEKAC,J…

 

You can't force these things. If Parenteau is playing with Montreal's best and still isn't producing, well, I guess it just isn't going to happen.

 

The advanced stats aren't in his favour either. Parenteau's on-ice shooting percentage at even strength sits slightly below average at 7.35% so he isn't due some major regression that could goose his numbers.

 

It would help if he could get some more power play scores as he sits with just four PPP this season but Parenteau has never relied on power play scoring in the past so we can't look at this as some "missing ingredient." More importantly, it doesn't appear that the Montreal power play will be turning it around any time soon. They are scoring at a bottom-10 rate on the power play and also producing shots at a bottom-10 rate in those situations as well. That's not a combination indicative of a turnaround, no matter how strong the on-ice talent might be.

 

Stewart's situation in Buffalo is even direr but he has the advantage of being a genuine trade chip. I maintain that Stewart could blossom if dealt to a contender (Boston remains the best fit.) I cannot advocate stronger for buying low on Stewart in leagues where that's a possibility.

 

The positive thing is that in many leagues if Stewart doesn't get dealt he can simply be dumped after the trade deadline for an interesting option off the waiver wire. It just so happens that in the league I acquired Stewart we have a salary cap so I don't have the waiver wire option available to me. So while this Parenteau for Stewart swap has me abandoning one hunch for the next, I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

 

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Stralman is back on top after a brief slide though he didn't actually do anything over the past week to warrant a climb. It should be mentioned that doing nothing is at least part of the criteria for this award, however, so Stralman having failed to score in the past six games is definitely a positive.

 

T1. Christian Ehrhoff – Plus-15

 

Ehrhoff continues to linger at the top but an injury may cost him some time. Also working against Ehrhoff's chances of continuing at these highs is an astronomical PDO, which seems to indicate he has been fortunate to boast such a strong plus/minus. That Ehrhoff hasn't scored much despite these favourable percentages means he is at little risk of losing eligibility despite playing for the stacked Penguins.

 

T3. Kevin Klein – Plus-13

 

It's been a career season for Klein already and we aren't even halfway home yet. Klein's seven goals are easily a career high and leave him tied for 10th among defensemen in the whole league. He could fail to score another point and none would be surprised.

Klein is not accustomed to putting up strong plus/minus figures but he has spent much of his career toiling on some average Predator teams. In New York he is a top-four defenseman on a surprisingly high-scoring Ranger squad. Don't expect Klein to hit the 30-point disqualification mark. Do expect his continued candidacy for this award – he's good.

 

T3. Jonas Brodin – Plus-13

 

At just 23 games played Brodin has seen the least action of our candidates. When he plays, the stingy Minnesota Wild do quite well. With Ryan Suter as a partner, Brodin promises to be a contender all season long.

 

T5. Jason Garrison – Plus-12

 

Garrison continues to flirt with the line of being too productive for this award. With 17 points through 35 games, Garrison may very well lose his candidacy by March and skating on a top-scoring Lightning team is helping him as much as it is hurting him. This isn't all negative. Unlike most on this list, Garrison is a real fantasy asset!

 

T5. Stephane Robidas – Plus-12

 

Never in my wildest dreams did I think we'd see a Leaf on this least but Toronto's recent surge has vaulted Robidas into the "Schultz" race. He is tied with Ehrhoff for the top PDO among defensemen so odds are this all comes crashing down, which would be all too Leaf-like.

 

T7. Hampus Lindholm – Plus-11

T7. Alec Martinez – Plus-11

T7. Robyn Regehr – Plus-11

T10. Marc-Edouard Vlasic – Plus-10

T10. Niklas Hjalmarsson – Plus-10

T10. Nicklas Grossman – Plus-10

 

I tell ya, this race is really heating up with so many candidates finally hitting double-digits. A Leaf and a Flyer on the list! Who'd have thunk it?

 

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Brendan Ross has everything you need to know for the World Juniors in his piece over at McKeen's. It's a longer read but I don't mind if you jump over there to get a head start before puck drops on the tournament this afternoon.

 

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NHL.com also has some World Junior previews for you to read with separate pieces touching on Group A and Group B.

 

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Tasty nugget from Adam Kimelman, the Winnipeg Jets have the most prospects (six) competing at the World Juniors of any NHL team. Looks like they are really building something there.

 

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Interesting piece on how Canada is looking to Finland and Sweden for help on how to better develop goaltenders.

 

“It’s the lack of the coaching,” said Hirsch, who spent time as goaltending coach with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Blues. “There’s a lot of coaches out there that just bury their head and (follow the) old analogy of, ‘Just shut up and get in there and stop the puck.’ That’s barbaric and that’s the way it was. We taught ourselves. That’s how you learned. And if you were the best athlete and you were able to learn and teach yourself, pretty much, or got lucky and met somebody that knew about goaltending, that’s how you became good.”

“Now we can’t rely on that anymore. We need coaches, and we need these guys to be respected.”

 

It's good to know that they are looking outside the box to learn from the nations who have become the best at this stuff. As fewer and fewer Canadian kids are enrolling in hockey there is greater importance on development through more than sheer volume.

 

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If you are looking for some quick fun how about joining a World Junior Pool? We are putting on a free one in the forum. Just for kicks, no prizes unfortunately.

 

I also stumbled upon one from the Dirty Dangle blog. It is free to enter as well and I think you can win a hoodie or a T-shirt.

 

But hurry, deadline to enter both is puck drop at 1:00 pm Eastern, this afternoon!

 

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Cool take from TSN's Travis Yost on how NHL teams take different approaches to possession.

 

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Let Dustin Tokarski get you ready for the World Junior action later today:

 

 

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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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