January 6, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-01-06

 

Some final World Junior thoughts, buy low on Wheeler, buy low on Marleau even harder and more…

 

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What.

 

A.

 

Game.

 

Kudos to the Russians, who had alligator blood. Canada couldn't get rid of them.

 

Darnell Nurse had one heck of a tournament. I didn't love some of the decisions he made through the first couple of periods last night jumping into the rush but he had been good at the earlier. More importantly, Nurse played an All-World third period to help Canada cling to the lead. I mean, he went vintage Pronger in that period.

 

I doubt we see Nurse putting up many points early in his career but his upside in multi-category leagues is as high as any prospect out there. He's #1 defenseman material but I wouldn't be totally shocked if he Jay Bouwmeester-ed his way out of fantasy relevance in points-only leagues.

 

Nic Petan was one of the forwards I was most impressed with in this tournament because I expected him to put up points and he did just that. He's a smaller player so skill is his calling card but throughout the tournament he displayed a tenacity and willingness to compete in the tough areas on the ice. Last night was the first time that was brought into doubt for me.

 

That game was easily Canada's most physical affair of the tournament so it's no surprise that things were tougher for Petan but after taking a hit in the first he became very shy and perimeter oriented. It's only one game but if that's what happens when the heat gets turned up then Petan will struggle in the pros. Definitely looking like a longer development path for him as there's going to be a learning curve facing that kind of physicality night in night out as a pro.

 

Josh Morrissey was Canada's most impressive blueliner from an offensive perspective. It's tough to see where he'll fit in for Winnipeg with the endless list of defensemen they have there but if you remember that Morrissey might spend a couple years at the AHL level then you can start to see where he might fit in.

 

Looking at the contract situation for Winnipeg (courtesy of NHLnumbers.com, the new go-to for cap info now that CapGeek has shut down, get well Matthew!) you can see that Dustin Byfuglien's deal is up in the summer of 2016. Maybe Byfuglien re-signs but that's the earliest any of Winnipeg's top four defensemen come off the books (assuming the Jets lock up Jacob Trouba to a long-term deal, which they would be stupid not to.)

 

I haven't spoken much about Connor McDavid because, really, it's pointless. He's ranked #1 for a reason. If you came away from that tournament thinking anything but that McDavid is the best prospect in hockey then nothing I can say will dissuade you.

 

Nikolai Goldobin jumped out to me the most for Russia. No nonsense to his game. Some of Russia's other big-name forwards (Pavel Buchnevic, Ivan Barbashev) came and went depending on the game. Goldobin brought it every time I watched. That consistency is something I value a lot. It will serve Goldobin well as he pushes to make the Sharks in the future. And he's got legit offensive skills too so it's not like he's capped out as a third-liner.

 

Buchnevic and Barbashev did finish the tournament with one more point than Goldobin but if I was betting on one for my farm team it would be Goldobin.

 

Look to DobberProspects for plenty more World Junior thoughts.

 

Update: They have a massive new ramblings up as well, so head on over!

 

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And then there was that other game last night…

 

The Sharks edged the Jets with Marc-Edouard Vlasic's goal coming with just five seconds remaining.

 

No Joe Thornton for the Sharks last night as he was placed on IR. He'll miss tonight's game against the Wild as well but the Sharks are optimistic that he'll return soon.

 

Melker Karlsson joined Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski on the top line scoring a goal. I can't imagine you have any openings in your lineup tonight but if you do Karlsson could make for a nice filler. That's about it for his relevance though, I suspect.

 

Patrick Marleau put an end to a nine-game scoring drought that dated back to December 9th. I've been hearing lots of frustration about Marleau's lack of production the last month.

 

"Oh waaaaahhh!"

 

Dude goes nine games without a point and is still on pace for 56 points this season. He's shooting just 5.7% but is firing the puck as much as ever (on pace for 245 SOG.)

 

Don't you think that maybe this is just a slump? And that this is the absolute worst time to give up on Marleau? Hasn't he earned the benefit of the doubt? This isn't 2007-08 where Marleau stopped shooting the puck.

 

Consider Marleau a huge buy-low candidate because if that shooting percentage gets back to normal, he'll go bonkers. Consider that if he was shooting his career average (13.6%) that he'd be at 16 goals and no one would be saying boo. Even if he was shooting 10% he'd be at 12 goals, which would still be acceptable.

 

We can safely debunk the once prevalent notion that Marleau is a second half guy because:

 

Month

Games

Points

Per 82

October

182

144

64.87912

November

207

148

58.62802

December

212

149

57.63208

January

204

166

66.72549

February

163

127

63.88957

March

232

158

55.84483

April

86

66

62.93023

First Half

601

441

60.16972

Second Half

685

517

61.88905

 

But that doesn't mean he can't have a huge second half this year.

 

BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY!

 

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Point being, Hutchinson is the better goalie but that might not guarantee him anything just yet.

 

Grant Clitsome is out for a week or two, adding to the pile of injuries the Jets are dealing with. This won't help the Jets' goaltending, whoever winds up playing.

 

If you are looking for another buy-low guy, give Blake Wheeler a shot. His case isn't quite as black and white as Marleau's without a smoking gun like shooting percentage but that's partially because Wheeler's turnaround has already begun with 12 points in 13 December games. His first three months fit his "slow starter" profile almost perfectly:

 

Month

Games

Points

Per 82

October

66

32

39.75758

November

83

49

48.40964

December

81

63

63.77778

January

74

51

56.51351

February

64

50

64.0625

March

87

55

51.83908

April

38

30

64.73684

First Half

230

144

51.33913

Second Half

263

186

57.9924

 

There are plenty of criticisms to make of this chart. The sample size is much smaller than with Marleau. Wheeler didn't truly breakout until he was dealt at the 2011 deadline from Boston to Atlanta, which skews the stats towards strong second-half play. One of Wheeler's best seasons came in 2013, which was only played from January through April, further skewing things. But it can't explain the full effect here.

 

More importantly, Wheeler's a beast in his prime. I believe in his ability to put up points.

 

Buy.

 

*

 

Word from Elliotte Friedman is that Antoine Vermette getting traded is a virtual lock:

 

I've said this before, and I think he's going to get traded. I think it's like a virtual lock. I just think the question becomes what happens with some of their other guys. But I do still think Vermette is going to get dealt, yes.

 

The big question is where he goes. Right now I like where Vermette is at because he gets to skate on a top line and top power play. There isn't really a contender out there that could offer him that same combination. If they could, they wouldn't be contenders.

 

Chicago is the best landing spot I can think of because there is room for him on the second line with Patrick Kane as Brad Richards has not been the fit we hoped for. Chicago is the sort of destination where Vermette could sustain his production in a reduced role.

 

Pittsburgh has probably fired its big bullet moving that first round pick for David Perron so that takes them out of the equation. Other spots like Boston or St. Louis could suck the life out of his fantasy value by landing him too far down the depth chart.

 

Vermette isn't a big scorer anyway. He's on pace for like 50 points, which makes him more of a fringe guy, and that's as a top-liner.

 

In any case, we'll have the trade analysis for you when (if) it takes place but if you have a vested interest in Vermette, moving him while the trade hype is hot might actually be a favourable move since Chicago is the only destination where his numbers might go up.

 

*

 

Roberto Luongo is reportedly fine after the collision with Alexander Ovechkin on Sunday and will go against the Canucks on Thursday night.

 

There was some concern that Luongo's injury was serious after the Panthers called up goalie Sam Brittain from the minors but Brittain is actually a replacement for back up Al Montoya who returned home for the birth of his child.

 

*

 

Rotisserie Monster, Radko Gudas, will be on the shelf for a while as he'll undergo knee surgery today. They say that his timeline will be announced after the surgery but I'm thinking a couple of months here.

 

On one hand, that stinks for owners of his unique brand of awesomeness. However, he now becomes a secret weapon to unleash come fantasy playoffs, assuming his absence doesn't cost you a playoff berth.

Buy now if you can and stash him.

 

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It's been a tough season for Tuukka Rask and his fantasy owners but he has an excellent suggestion to help things improve:

 

Yeah, maybe mix in a couple of beers before the games. That would make us relax. That might be the final option," said a bemused Rask.

 

That's advice we can all take to heart. Just don't drink too many or you might make a trade that you'll regret.

 

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If you haven’t yet, make sure you pick up the Mid-Season Guide for everything you need to push you to the championship in the second half! It comes out in less than a week.

 

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McDavid…

 

 

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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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