January 7, 2015
steve laidlaw
2015-01-07
The night that Varlamov and Backes won all of the pools and more fantasy hockey ramblings…
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Make sure you pick up a copy of the Mid-Season Guide. Essential reading for your second-half push. Only $9.99. It comes out on January 12th.
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Let's start with Semyon Varlamov stopping 54 shots from the Chicago Blackhawks for the shutout victory. That ties Varlamov with Mike Smith for the second best 50+ save shutout performance in the modern era. It's also easily the top goaltending performance of the season.
It's still not enough to get me to buy Varlamov unless you are selling someone like Ondrej Pavelec (a deal I actually tried and failed to swing) because this Avalanche team is just too flawed. But, if you needed a reminder, Varlamov is in fact a legit starter.
Varlamov totally overshadows the two-point night from Nathan MacKinnon. He's been hit hard by the sophomore slump. Chalk it up to whatever you want; too much hype; the big summer weight gain; regression after overproducing last season; getting stifled with the greater responsibilities of a new role; or perhaps just plain bad luck.
There's some strong evidence for bad luck. He's shooting just 5.9% this season. Maybe that's what he gets for shooting 10.0% last year but regression doesn't really work that. If MacKinnon is really more of an 8.0% shooter then that's what he should be shooting this year. At his volume of shots that's a couple more goals.
There's also MacKinnon's on-ice shooting percentage sitting at a miserable 6.21%. With a little more luck MacKinnon is probably at 30 points through 40 games and no one is saying boo.
The problem with that notion is that MacKinnon's ice time is now getting taken away. Woulda, coulda, shoulda, MacKinnon is now paying for his misfortune, which sets him up for more failure. Check out his first quarter vs. second quarter minutes:
He has lost a full minute of power play time and actually only skated two seconds on the power play last night. As much as I want to say that MacKinnon should get it going I just can't. Not with this usage.
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Last night's other massive performance was David Backes going ballistic for four goals against Arizona.
Considering how Mike Smith's season has been going those goals probably shouldn't count. Smith has only made four appearances in the last month and has given up 18 goals over that stretch. He has reverted fully and completely back to his form with the Lightning, which was Swiss cheese.
Back to Backes though. This four-goal performance almost completely market corrects for him as his pace went from 40 to 47 overnight, which is right around where we should expect him to finish. Why so low? Well because last season was a bit of an over-achievement. Backes scored on 16.4% of his shots. He's a strong net-front presence but that's high for him. He also got some career performances out of linemates TJ Oshie and Alexander Steen. Can't count on that again.
More importantly, Backes has lost a minute of ice time per game down to just 18:31 this season, with a small fraction of that coming on the power play. Now that Vladimir Tarasenko has turned superstar the Blues need to rely on Backes' line a lot less. That's great for winning but not so great for his fantasy value.
Oshie, by the way, has been shooting fireballs off his stick of late. Three assists last night give him seven points in the last two games and 11 points on a six-game scoring streak.
I abandoned Oshie early when he was getting iced out of minutes with Backes and Steen and off the power play but a good chunk of that was just some bad puck luck. That luck has clearly reversed and now he's on pace for 53 points. Considering he has already missed eight games that's pretty good. Hitting 53 would mean 30 points the rest of the way, which is doable and means Oshie is back to his 60-point ways even though he'll ultimately fall short.
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Oh my goodness. I feel dumb. Mikhail Grigorenko has been up since mid-December and I just realized that he has been playing. Maybe it's because he hasn't done much. Last night, in his 10th game of the season he managed his first goal.
Grigorenko has been getting some minutes too (over 15 a night), centering a second line of Cody Hodgson and Chris Stewart. Might that be the all-bust line?
It's still way too early to slap that label on the 20-year-old Grigorenko. He's effectively a rookie and put up strong numbers in the AHL prior to his call-up. But I was never high on Grigorenko as a prospective and I'm skeptical he becomes a strong fantasy option.
Stewart doesn't necessarily deserve that moniker either. I've been pumping the tires on Stewart for a while now. We know he can be a strong scorer on a team with enough depth to prop him up but not so much depth that he gets buried. He needs that perfect situation but it's available.
Hodgson though? I don't know what to tell you. I've made this comparison before but he is looking very Sam Gagner-ish, even down to him getting pushed out to the wing. Hodgson is only 24 but hits 25 in a little over a month. Not much patience left.
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It must have been well over a month ago now but I was campaigning for people to buy on Patrik Elias. Between injuries, slumps and a case of the mumps, it has been a horrible season for Elias but here he is in the New Year putting up numbers. In three 2015 games Elias has four points including three last night. Granted, that's against the Sabres. But everyone gets to pad their stats against the Sabres.
Elias' on-ice shooting percentage at even strength is still sitting at an abysmal 5.03%, well below league average. There is still plenty of room for the tides to continue to turn in the second half. Set your sites on 25 points from here on out. If that can help you then buy.
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