January 14 2015

Dobber

2015-01-14

Thoughts on Pastrnak, Perreault, and why Jaroslav Halak is the best fantasy hockey goalie right now …

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With the Midseason Guide (buy it here) put to bed, I can finally concentrate on my pet project again. Yep – player profiles. I got a great suggestion the other day about adding SH% to the career stats, so I’m implementing that. I’m also trying some new things with the colors (yep, aesthetics). I’m a long-time hardcore fantasy hockey owner. Nobody knows what is needed in a fantasy hockey player profile more than I do. And I’m taking that “perfect profile” vision and trying to make it a reality.

By the way – the Mid-season Guide was secretly updated Tuesday morning. Nothing major, just a couple of small errors. One, I fixed Tarasenko’s upside, which must have been changed by mistake in the St. Louis section. Two, I put in the rankings for each of the prospects that were profiled.

David Pastrnak, the latest fantasy hockey sensation, picked up two more goals Tuesday giving him four goals in two games. He’s played eight NHL games now and the limit for the ELC to kick in is 10 games. But I was under the impression that as an AHLer, the 10-game CBA thing didn’t matter – since that related to playing pro. After all, for Anthony Duclair the 10-game thing didn’t apply as a result of when he signed his contract. And for Zemgus Girgensons I thought it didn't apply because he played in the AHL already.

So I took a look at the CBA:

9.1 (d) (i) In the event that an 18 year old or 19 year old Player signs an SPC

with a Club but does not play at least ten (10) NHL Games in the first season under that

SPC, the term of his SPC and his number of years in the Entry Level System shall be

extended for a period of one (1) year, except that this automatic extension will not apply

to a Player who is 19 according to Section 9.2 by virtue of turning 20 between September

16 and December 31 in the year in which he first signs an SPC.

So this is why Duclair wasn’t limited to the 10-game thing, and why Pastrnak is. I still don’t get the Girgensons thing.

Anyway, Pastrnak is firing on all cylinders and he has a bright future. And he seems to have great chemistry with countryman David Krejci. But be forewarned – Seth Griffith was also firing on all cylinders to start the season, and he’s been up and down. Nothing is guaranteed, as you well know. That being said, I’d much rather own Pastrnak in a keeper league because the upside is so much higher.

Tuukka Rask is on a 6-0-3 run. Half of those games he’s been “so-so”. His team has really played much better. Boston is a great team, but as we saw in November – they become mere mortals when Chara and Krejci are out of the lineup. But back to Rask. His wins are getting back on track, but he’s still not his dominant self. After three consecutive seasons of 0.929 SV% (and four out of five), he’s sitting at 0.913. And his save percentage before this nine-game hot streak? It was 0.913.

Another game, another Nathan MacKinnon goose egg. One promising sign though – he played 18 minutes, which was his highest ice time in 13 games.

Anton Khudobin is playing every two weeks or thereabouts, as the team rides Ward. But he’s working his numbers back up to the impressive level they should be. He’s had three straight wins and four consecutive games of allowing no more than two goals.

Both Benoit Pouliot and Derek Roy have points in three straight. So the Edmonton count for Roy is now seven points in eight games. That’s very retro-Roy numbers right there. I thought he was done after seeing him struggle for three years after his quad surgery. But he doesn’t need speed on a speedy team I guess. I just quickly went to Fantrax and increased my pending waiver bid on Roy by 25%.

When I do this gig, I try not to speak in absolutes. Like “he’ll never do this” or “he’ll definitely do this”. If I speak that way, then I’m pretty damn certain. You won’t see it often. And when you do this for over nine years, you get your share of arguments – usually from readers who don’t mind speaking in absolutes. Sometimes these disagreements stick out in my mind, though I never remember who has them with me or when. After seeing Mathieu Perreault score four goals last night, and watch him tally 22 points in his last 19 games, I’m reminded of the time that a reader swore up and down that he had zero upside on a scoring line and he was an energy player at best. That 65 points for an upside was absurd. This was when he was with Washington. Not everyone can score four goals. If he keeps getting the ice time he’s getting, he could very well get to that 65-point mark. His current full-season pace is for 53 points thanks to the slow start. So he’d need 37 points in 39 games the rest of the way. A long shot, but doable. If he even gets 60, then I don’t think many would doubt that he has the ability for 65.

This is the reason I’m so loose with my upsides when it comes to players aged 18 to 24. An upside is just that – an upside. Most players won’t reach it. Some do. But it’s best to see a career pattern and a role with the team, before zeroing in on a proper upside.

Michael Frolik has 14 points in his last 16 games, so Perreault is really helping him out as well. The other linemate Mark Scheifele has 14 points in 15 games.

Dustin Byfuglien has 20 points in his last 20 games. It’s already well documented that he’s enjoying things – and producing more – as a defenseman.

Aleksander Barkov has quietly put up four points in five games. Jonathan Huberdeau‘s hot streak is helping others in the lineup get out of their funk, too. Tomas Fleischmann has four points in three games.

Dallas line combos last night:

21.72%	EV	14 BENN,JAMIE – 25 RITCHIE,BRETT – 91 SEGUIN,TYLER
20%	EV	20 EAKIN,CODY – 16 GARBUTT,RYAN – 21 ROUSSEL,ANTOINE
15.86%	EV	10 HORCOFF,SHAWN – 27 MOEN,TRAVIS – 22 SCEVIOUR,COLTON
14.14%	EV	72 COLE,ERIK – 83 HEMSKY,ALES – 90 SPEZZA,JASON

Brett Ritchie is still hanging in there.

Calvin de Haan has five points in his last eight games and is plus-4 in that span. I was looking around for a defenseman to bid on and thought I’d share my findings. Pickings are slim in that league.

Kari Lehtonen is now winless in four – and he got the hook last night after giving up two goals on five shots. His SV% is taking an absolute beating.

First Fleischmann, and now Hemsky. What is this, 2010? Hemsky has nine points in his last 11 games.

And finally, DobberBaseball writer Anatoliy Metter contributes fantasy hockey stuff over at The Hockey Writers. Check out his latest work on sleepers vs. streakers …and streaking dmen under 25% owned.