January 22, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-01-22

Pick up the Midseason Guide here…

Last night of NHL action before the All-Star break. If you’re wondering about what we’ll do for content here in the ramblings, we’ll scrounge for info just like we always. Heck, we have ramblings every day through August. A few days off in mid-January is no big deal.

I do have plans for some feature-esque stuff in the ramblings the next couple of days. I’ll probably do a deep dive on the Jeff Schultz Memorial Trophy power rankings tomorrow since we have a reprieve in the schedule. I’m also looking to put together something creating the “Fantasy Hockey All-Star Team” for this season. So check back in for that stuff over the next couple of days.

It sure feels like defenseman scoring is on the rise this season. It’s been itching me all season but I really took note after Erik Karlsson scored #10 and #11 on the season last night to become the 11^th defender to reach double-digits this season. That's pretty incredible for just a bit over halfway through the season.

Consider that in the abbreviated 2013 season with 48 games played by each team we had just four defenders hit double-digits. Consider also that we have 31 defensemen with at least six goals this season, so they are on pace to hit that mark and that doesn't even include Victor Hedman who has five in just 28 games.

How many defensemen have hit double-digits in recent years?

2013-14	28
2013	4
2011-12	19
2010-11	22
2009-10	23
2008-09	29
2007-08	24
2006-07	31
2005-06	33

There probably isn't enough here to make any conclusions but let’s assume that there is. It's worth noting that over 30 defensemen hit double-digits in the two seasons following the lockout when the NHL revved up its penalty calling shooting power plays up league-wide. Still I think we should look a little bit deeper.

How about 50-point seasons for defensemen?

2013-14	9
2013	0
2011-12	5
2010-11	9
2009-10	7
2008-09	13
2007-08	11
2006-07	16
2005-06	13

Again, big spikes at the start of the post-Lockout era with the number of big-time defensemen tailing off as years went along. 2011-12 was just a lean year for defensemen all around. Certainly the declining number of power plays and scoring in general is to blame.

No defensemen have hit 50 points yet this season but we've got 22 who have already scored 27 points this season, so we are on pace for a post-Lockout record. What gives?

Power plays are at their lowest since the 70's so it can't be that. Checking that same link we can see that scoring is up slightly over the past couple of years and maybe that's enough but it's nowhere near what we had even as recently 2009-10.

I think what we are seeing is how the game has caught up to the demands of the rule changes made during that Lockout that we've referenced so many times already. The game requires mobile and skilled defensemen who can smoothly breakout either with the pass or with the puck on their stick. Teams have been bringing along these players more and more to fill the demand and now that they have them they are using them with greater frequency.

Or maybe this is all just an aberration. A bunch of those guys on pace for 10+ goals or 50+ points could slip up or get hurt. Maybe we are just at that point where we've grown saturated with skilled defensemen but coaches haven't figured out how to take them away yet.

What I do know is that forward scoring is certainly coming down. In each of the past three full seasons we've had just one player break 100 points. We are at heavy risk of having one fail to reach that mark at all for the first time since the Lockout. It certainly feels like we've finally reached the age of the offensive defenseman. It's never been easier to fill out those defenseman slots in your league but such is the way that things ebb and flow.

As mentioned, Karlsson sniped two goals last night and is on a really nice roll with four goals in the last four games.

Bobby Ryan notched himself another couple of assists and has excelled under the new head coach. Some of it surely has to do with Mike Hoffman, he of the hot stick, but Ryan has certainly seen an improvement in his play.

The Senators in general have been playing better hockey since making their coaching change, which isn't always the case. Great look here at how each team has fared since making their swap this season. You'll notice the Senators not only playing better possession hockey but also shooting a higher percentage.

The Leafs on the other hand…

Well at least they scored a few last night after once again mixing up the line combos. Here are the latest courtesy of FrozenPool:

Frequency	Strength	Line Combination
24.82%	EV	42 BOZAK,TYLER – 71 CLARKSON,DAVID – 26 WINNIK,DANIEL
19.86%	EV 📢 advertisement:	43 KADRI,NAZEM – 81 KESSEL,PHIL – 21 VAN RIEMSDYK,JAMES
13.48%	EV	20 BOOTH,DAVID – 39 FRATTIN,MATT – 23 SMITH,TREVOR
9.57%	EV	32 LEIVO,JOSH – 18 PANIK,RICHARD – 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL

And the Nazem Kadri owners drool, while the Santorelli owners "Panik." Sorry for that one.

Kadri did score last night but it was on the second power play unit so I don't know how excited you want to get.

Big night for Jake Gardiner though. Dion Phaneuf took a fighting major so the Gardiner-Morgan Rielly pairing picked up some huge minutes. Gardiner skated over 25 minutes last night picking up a pair of assists. It would certainly make sense if he and Rielly became more valuable with Peter Horachek trying to modernize the Leafs' play. They'll need to scoop the top power play minutes though and Phaneuf and Cody Franson won't be giving those up any time soon.

The Penguins did not have their "A" squad yesterday against the Blackhawks.

Evgeni Malkin sat out with what coach Mike Johnston referred to as "he wasn't able to play." Whatever that means. He'll also sit out the All-Star Weekend so we know that it was something but perhaps this is a case where the player couldn't go last night and is using it as a well-timed excuse to skip the All-Star Game.

Kris Letang was also absent after taking the hit from behind by Zac Rinaldo. He's now out indefinitely after having concussion symptoms on Tuesday night.

Add those two to the other Penguin injuries and this certainly wasn't a full squad. That meant Joel Quenneville was free to cast Jonathan Toews as Sidney Crosby's permanent shadow. That did not work out so well for Crosby who went scoreless with a minus-one rating.

Paul Martin might see some gains if Letang is out for a while as it was he who jumped onto the top power play unit. Derrick Pouliot got back into the lineup skating over 20 minutes. No scores for either guy.

Rare goal for Marian Hossa last night. He is at 10 on the season but shooting just 6.8%, he's well off his usual pace. Hossa is a career 12.8% shooter so either he's not getting the bounces or he's becoming more perimeter-bound. Even if it's a little of column B that doesn't explain the near 50% decline in shot rate. Buy low and look for the scoring to kick up. Just hope the annual injury bug doesn't catch him again.

Brandon Saad continued his hot streak with an assist and seven SOG. He's got 11 points in the last 13 games but don't go and try buying him up now. We all want Saad to be better than he is. To keep growing after starting out so strong.

Yes he's a fine two-way player. Yes he skates on the Blackhawks top line. No that doesn't mean he has more to offer. Coming in NHL-ready doesn't guarantee growth.

Growth may be happening, mind you but he's still not getting the top power play minutes required to take that leap. Maybe if the Blackhawks clear out some bodies (Patrick Sharp for example) then Saad can make that jump or perhaps he is the one who has to move on. Either way, I don't see him climbing out of that 45-55-point range until he gets those top power play minutes.

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11	CAR	vs	PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11	MTL	vs	CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11	BUF	vs	OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11	TOR	vs	BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11	NYI	vs	PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11	MIN	vs	L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11	STL	vs	T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11	WPG	vs	UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11	COL	vs	SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11	ANA	vs	VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11	S.J	vs	CBJ