The Western Conference over-achievers… and what’s ahead for them

Does everything that goes up actually come down?

After doing the all-bust team last week this week brings the all-surprise team from the first half. The expected points are based on an average of the predictions made by Dobber, The Hockey News and McKeen's.

Forwards

Filip Forsberg – Starting 65% of shifts at even strength in the offensive zone goes a long way towards producing higher point totals. It has also meant that Forsberg is in the top 15 in the NHL for shots per 60 minutes played. Forsberg is a major contributor to that as he averages more than 3 shots per game, putting him in the top 30 in the league for shots. Forsberg is making the most of these factors with a personal shooting percentage over 12% and an on-ice shooting percentage over 11%. The percentages are down from earlier in the season yet Forsberg has managed to keep producing at nearly a point per game.  It is highly unlikely that Forsberg continues to score at that rate but thus far he has managed to avoid regression like Jon Gosselin avoids child support.

Kris Versteeg – Kris Versteeg was not supposed to play with Patrick Kane this year but injuries and Chicago's slow start gave him the chance and he has run with it. Vertseeg's production is entirely sustainable as long as he is playing with Kane. This is especially true as he starts 70% of his shifts in the offensive zone while the Toews and Kruger lines take the toughest matchups. Versteeg, like other key Chicago players, has an on-ice shooting percentage above 10%. Versteeg also has a career average personal shooting percentage in the 11% range, a little higher than his current percentage. This would have made Versteeg a great bet to continue his current rate of production and to break 60 points…had he not sustained a hand injury that will sideline him until February!

Matt Beleskey – Beleskey has more goals this season than Claude Giroux, Taylor Hall or Ryan Getzlaf. He currently sits sixth in the Western Conference in goals and 17^th in the league overall. Beleskey's already beaten his single season high for goal by five. Much like Denzel Washington Matt Beleskey is a man on fire. A 16.7% personal shooting percentage, almost twice his career average, is the primary reason why Beleskey is scoring goals like never before. The fact that Beleskey is taking more shots than ever before is making Beleskey's hot hand stand out even more.

Defense

Mark Giordano – The first thing that stands out with both Giordano and Shattenkirk is that both are taking shots at the same rate as mid-level forwards. Both are top 15 in the league among defensemen for shots and maintaining that level of shot generation will keep both at the high end of defense scoring. Giordano is in a very different situation than Shattenkirk though. Giordano faces all the toughest matchups Despite that the Flames score almost 57% of the goals when Giordano is on the ice at even strength. Given whom Giordano plays against and that the Flames score only 45% of the goals when he is off the ice says a lot about the Giordano's impact. Giordano's on-ice shooting percentage is a little high at 11% and he has been injury prone in the past but do not be surprised if Giordano pushes 65 if he remains healthy.

Kevin Shattenkirk – Whereas Giordano plays all the tough minutes in Calgary Shattenkirk plays behind Alex Pietrangelo and gets to start 63% of his shifts in the offensive zone against mid-level competition. This has helped Shattenkirk produce at just under a point per game pace, boosted by an on-ice shooting percentage over 11%. There are a couple things to watch out for though. First, 60% of Shattenkirk's points have come on the power play where he is scoring on 15% of his shots. Shattenkirk has been so prolific on the power play this year that he already has four less points on the power play than he had last year. Second, is that Shattenkirk for his career scores .69 points per game over the first half of the season, he is currently 10 percentage points above that pace, but closer to .4 points per game during the second half. There are more red flags around Shattenkirk going into the second half than can be found at a semaphore conference.

Goalies

Michael Hutchinson – Michael Hutchinson currently has the fourth best single season save percentage. Dominik Hasek won five Vezinas with save percentages in that stratosphere, Lundqvist won his only Vezina with a similar save percentage. Which is to say that a save percentage above 93% is not very sustainable. Hutchinson will likely keep the starting job in Winnipeg as Pavelec does not provid much competition. Hutchinson has a significant buffer with Pavelec having his best season in five years and still posting below average numbers. The Jets have been playing very good hockey in front of Hutchinson allowing only 26 shots per game. Tis means that even if Hutchinson regressed to the level of a league average goalie he would still be sporting a 2.3 goals against average. Making him a good option even with more sustainable numbers.

Honourable Mentions

Johnny Gaudreau – Johnny Gaudreau still has inflated shooting percentages, seemingly a remnant from the Flames hot start. For Gaudreau though there has not been a cooling off period as Gaudreau scored on more than a quarter of his shots in December. The stretches this season where Gaudreau has struggled have been when his on-ice shooting percentage has dropped to close to 10%. It will be hard for Gaudreau to maintain this level of production when the Flames only average 26.5 shots per 60 minutes Gaudreau plays at even strength. This low rate of shot generation is worrisome considering Gaudreau plays very sheltered minutes.

Mike Ribeiro – Ribeiro looked like he was done last year but he has rebounded in a manner of which Dennis Rodman would be proud. He had his best month in December when his on-ice shooting percentage was the lowest it has been, under 10% for the month. Equally as impressive is that only 12.5% of his points have come on the power play. The troubling thing for Ribeiro is that he is scoring on close to 20% of his shots. That is 5 points higher than Ribeiro's career average. Much like Filip Forsberg the predators gets a ton of shots when Ribeiro is on the ice, although not many of them come from Ribeiro himself. He does not need to shoot a ton though as both Neal and Forsberg, his normal linemates, average three shots per game. Ribeiro will not keep this point per game pace for the whole season but he will be a productive player as long as the Predators are a dominant possession team with him on the ice.

Jake Muzzin – There was a lot made of Jake Muzzin's high corsi relative numbers, his corsi numbers relative to his teammates, and questions about how much of a role Drew Doughty played in those numbers. With Voynov missing this year, Jake Muzzin has stepped up in more of an offensive role and is producing at over a 40 point pace as a result. Muzzin is already four points off his career high, and has already surpassed his total power play points for last year. Even with that bump in power play points Muzzin is still getting 67% of his points at even strength. Furthermore, Muzzin has on-ice shooting just over 6% at even strength meaning there is room for Muzzin to further increase his scoring.

Group Mentions

'STL Line' – Tarasenko, Lehtera and Schwartz – There should be no doubt about who the driving force is on this line. Vladimir Tarasenko, aside from significantly boosting his highlite reel goal per game rate, has almost doubled the number of shots he takes per game. In 39 games this year Tarasenko has basically matched the number of shots he took in 64 games last year. He has gone from just under 2 shots per game to just under 3.5 shots per game. Thus his higher on-ice and personal shooting percentages have provided significant results. Over his last 100 games Tarasenko has a shooting percentage above 15% so it is not yet clear as to whether to expect a lot of regression. The other key to this line is Jori Lehtera as Jaden Schwartz's numbers when apart from Lehterasenko have been dreadful. The Blues have only managed a goal every 80 even strength minutes when Schwartz is apart from Lehtera and a goal every 150 even strength minutes when Schwartz is on the ice without Tarasenko. If Tarasenko is the elite sniper he appears to be there should be few worries about significant regression.

The Calgary defense – Brodie, Wideman and Russell – This could really read 'most of the Calgary Flames' but that seems a bit too much like beating a dead horse. TJ Brodie is in a different class than Wideman and Russell as they both get dominated in terms of possession while Brodie takes on the toughest competition alongside Giordano. The three are getting lumped together because they are emblematic of a larger epidemic of sky high shooting percentages that not even the Commander and Jetstream could stop from falling back to earth. Brodie and Russell have already felt the bite of regression as Brodie had four points in December and Russell had six points. Wideman has been buffered a little as he has continued to derive half of his points from the power play. Wideman, however still boasts a personal shooting percentage double that of his career average. For Brodie this is a correction to something closer to where his production should be although a 50 point pace is still high. For Russell it is a return to earth, something Wideman should fear in the near future.