0.73 (V.T.)

0.25 (J.V.)

0.18 (V.T.)

2.68 (J.V.)

1.97 (V.T.)

0.35 (J.V.)

0.13 (V.T.)

2011-12

0.41 (J.V.)

0.56 (J.V.)

0.23 (J.V.)

2.43 (J.V.)

0.14 (J.V.)

For scorers, both players are below average but still okay in Hits, decent in PIM, but bad – especially Tarasenko – in Blocked Shots. Of course most fantasy GMs would willingly accept this level of secondary category output in exchange for them continuing their current scoring pace. Each also embodies the adage that if you shoot more you score more, as their Shots per game increased from one season to the next and, in general, their scoring output as well. The wrinkle is Voracek's scoring pace dipped from 2012-13 to 2013-14 despite him averaging more shots, so as noted above we'll have to see if he faced unsustainable good luck or bad luck in either year, which should help paint a clearer overall picture.

While on one hand seeing Tarasenko's 3.43 shots per game is great, the concern – as with his productive Ice Time – is if there's any room to improve. After all, 3.43 per game puts him within the top ten in the NHL; and only five forwards (Giroux, Alex Ovechkin, Tyler Seguin, Patrick Sharp, Rick Nash) are above 3.6 per game, with Ovi and Giroux averaging over 20:00 per game of productive Ice Time and Seguin averaging close to 19:30. Sharp and Nash generally have been below 19:00 of productive Ice Time during their careers and – not coincidently – have been maxed out at a 75-80 points per season scoring rate despite firing so many shots on goal.

Thus, even if Tarasenko defies the odds and somehow manages more shots per game, it's still unlikely that he'll see his scoring output improve (due to not enough productive Ice Time). Meanwhile, Voracek's current Shots per game rate puts him outside the NHL's top 30, suggesting realistic room for improvement; and that's on top of– as noted above – the likelihood of added productive Ice Time in the coming seasons.

In terms of PP Points, Tarasenko has seen his average explode this season. But the concern is although his PP Ice Time per game has almost doubled, his PP Points per game rate has tripled, so we have to be mindful as to whether luck is playing a big part. And it's a bit concerning that Voracek's highest PP Point outputs came in his two best seasons, although since it happened twice that makes it less likely to be outlying, as does the fact that his output in 2013-14 wasn't too much lower. But in the end we'll have to closely examine his luck-based metrics as well, which we'll do next.

Luck-Based Metrics

Tarasenko's scoring pace has increased despite his 5×5 IPP and Offensive Zone Starting % decreasing each season and his 5×4 IPP being lower in 2014-15 than 2013-14. But part of that is he's now playing a more important role and skating with better linemates, which on one hand means more opportunities for points, but, on the other, less likelihood of the offense flowing through him, especially since he's a goal scorer and IPP tends to be higher for playmakers. What's more, his IPP drop has been mirrored by an increasing PDO. All told, these decreases and gains essentially cancel each other out, suggesting his production isn't due to increase or decrease based on luck.

For Voracek, his 90.0% IPP at 5×5 almost assuredly isn't sustainable; however, the silver lining is it shouldn't drop too much, as there were fifteen forwards in 2013-14 who played 1000 5×5 minutes and posted a 79%+ IPP. And although more than half of them are now less productive this season than they were in 2013-14, Voracek is different in that he can compensate with added productive Ice Time and more Shots per game, both of which, as noted above, are realistic. Also on the plus side – his 5×5 PDO remains well within the "normal" range (970-1030).

Voracek's offensive zone starting percentage is creeping up of late, and it's worth noting that Giroux's offensive zone starting % is only 50.6%. Considering that Giroux gets about 90 seconds more productive Ice Time than Voracek, if Voracek is to receive more productive Ice Time going forward it will likely have to come at the expense of his offensive zone starting %, which is not an ideal tradeoff.

No alarm bells go off looking at personal shooting %, as while Tarasenko's is high he managed to post 15.4% last season and might be the type of player who can consistently settle around the 15.0% mark. Meanwhile, Voracek is above his 10.6% career mark; but that number is brought down by his first three seasons, when he shot 8.9%, 10.4%, 7.6%. Looking at just his last four as a Flyer, his collective shooting % would be 11.6%, so his average this season is only nominally above that.

As a whole, Tarasenko's breakout season doesn't appear to be the by-product of unsustainable luck. And although Voracek probably has been a bit lucky this season, he might not see a drop in his scoring pace in the future even if his 5×5 IPP and/or offensive zone starting % fall, since there'd likely be an offsetting benefit based on his productive Ice Time and/or Shots per game continuing to rise.

Value and Injuries

Both players are RW-only eligible, with Voracek being the 28th RW-eligible taken in Yahoo drafts (the ninth who was RW-only eligible) and Tarasenko 48th (the 16th who was RW-only eligible). In the DobberHockey Experts League Draft, Voracek was grabbed with the second pick in round 10, while Tarasenko wasn't selected until five rounds later. Both players are currently owned in 93%+ of all Yahoo leagues. Let that remind us that while mutli-cat eligibility is an important asset, it's not everything.

Part of what likely led to Tarasenko being selected that late is having only played 102 of 130 games in his first two seasons, whereas Voracek played all 130 and missed a total of only nine in the previous four seasons combined. Tarasenko has managed to dodge the injury bug for 2014-15; but until he goes a couple of seasons where he plays 75-82 games, his value should be discounted at least somewhat.

Who Wins?

Although both players are poised to delight their fantasy owners for the rest of this decade and even beyond, Voracek is the better fantasy own.

What it boils down to is Tarasenko plays on a Blues team with a system that puts a ceiling on his productive Ice Time; and since he appears to have basically reached that ceiling – while coming close to maxing out on his Shots per game as well – it's likely we're seeing about the best he can do. Sure – he's only 23 and hasn't even hit his magical fourth year; but the drawback of him playing for St. Louis is Ice Time is spread so evenly that point per game scoring is about the best one can hope to achieve, and even that might be a stretch to predict for each and every year. Plus, Tarasenko is an RFA after this season, and any time a player's big breakout occurs in a contract year, there's always a his production takes a step backward once the ink is dry on his new deal.

Meanwhile, Voracek's productive Ice Time should go higher, as Giroux's has, and could see his Shots per game continue to climb as well. Therefore, even if Voracek's 2014-15 points total is being somewhat influenced by unsustainable good luck (i.e., 5×5 IPP and offensive zone starting %), added productive Ice Time and Shots per game in future seasons should help keep his scoring output at or near his current level. Plus, this big jump in production is coming despite him not being a UFA until 2016.

In the end, signs point to Voracek being a good bet for 85-90 points per season in today's NHL, while Tarasenko is more likely a 75-80 point player. A points comparison from RWs of the past would be Voracek as Daniel Alfredsson circa 2005-2008 and Tarasenko as 1999-2002 Brendan Shanahan.