February 6, 2013

steve laidlaw

2015-02-06

The Kings’ rough road ahead, Vasilevskiy’s a real threat, Timonen returns and more…

 

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Time to hit the panic button for the Kings. I know that there is lots of time remaining with 31 games left. I know that they are only five points out of a playoff spot. I know that their possession numbers indicate that they have been unfortunate and that their 1-7 record in the shootout points to further bad fortune than bad play. I know that we've seen this rope-a-dope regular season thing before. I know all of that and I still think that it's time to panic.

 

Here are some realities:

 

The Kings are five points out but are now behind the Avalanche in the playoff race and tied with both the Stars and the Wild. So they don't just have to pass one team here they have to pass and fend off several others. That's where the whole five-point deficit really becomes much wider than it appears.

 

The Kings have been dreadful on the road to the tune of a 5-12-6 record and a minus-15 goal differential. They play 18 of their final 31 games on the road. It's going to be tough to make up ground with that sort of adversity at play.

 

If you are wondering whether or not that road split is relevant, consider that Los Angeles really hasn't been all that strong of a road team these past few seasons having gone 49-39-18 (which if you read between the bullsh… err… loser points, is actually a losing record) with a minus-two goal differential over the previous three seasons.

 

It's not uncommon for teams to have road woes. Even some of the best teams have struggled with travel. Maybe these early road woes are an aberration that the Kings overcome down the stretch. Doesn't seem so likely though. Might be time to start shipping out your Kings, if you can find buyers.

 

The problem with trying to sell now is that virtually everyone is already at a reduced value. We've now got nearly 100 games worth of evidence that post-Cup Jonathan Quick is a reduced Jonathan Quick. He could actually use a nice long summer of rest and training to bounce back strong next season. Of course, we know he has the ability to go unconscious when the Kings need it but he'll need some help here.

 

The Slava Voynov situation (there are some ugly allegations) has crippled the Kings' blue line and it's had effects up and down the roster. Obviously Quick has felt the brunt of that but the depth scoring hasn't been there either.

 

Chris Pudsey covered much of the Kings' cap issues in his article yesterday we don't need to rehash too much of that discussion but one important note is just how much Kings GM Dean Lombardi is griping about the cap:

 

"It's a matter of how all these pieces fit into the puzzle," Lombardi said Tuesday, after the Kings prepared for their game against the Washington Capitals at the Verizon Center. "Then we also have this whole thing with the Canadian dollar. I've been talking to other GMs about that. It's a crazy way to run a cap. Do I need a stat guy or do I need a currency trader to figure this out?"

 

I'm sure Lombardi would love to pull another one of his classic manoeuvers and simply call-up the Blue Jackets and ask who they are selling on the cheap but between Voynov and the steadily declining cap projection, Lombardi doesn't know if there is any salary that he can add.

 

Unless Lombardi finds a way to pull another rabbit out of the hat, the Kings' depth scorers are looking awfully useless in fantasy leagues. Basically the only guys looking like consistent options are Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty. And they can't carry the rest of the bunch, even though you know they'll try.

 

Marian Gaborik and Dustin Brown each contributed a couple of points last night and they've been fairly productive the past month or so but that's the fruits of skating with Kopitar on the regular.

 

Some numbers worth considering here; the Kings average 2.89 goals per game at home but just 2.35 goals per game on the road. That's like flipping from Anaheim's 10th ranked offense to Columbus' 25th ranked offense depending on if games are at the Staples Center or not.

 

I'll be watching to see if the Kings can get a quality defenseman to come in and play 20+ minutes a night. If they can't, then guys like Justin Williams, Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson (among others) can be sent to the waiver wire without much concern. Heck, those three belong there right now (in one-year leagues.)

 

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So that Evander Kane situation sure blew up in a hurry didn't it? This is today's headline in the Winnipeg Sun. Safe to say where the Winnipeg media stands on the subject!

 

I'll say this, it's really sad that all this comes about while the Jets are still sitting in a playoff spot. Were they not in the midst of a season-long five-game losing skid would this have gone off the rails the way it had? Or did the sudden panic setting in help to escalate matters?

 

Regardless, what matters here is the fantasy impact. One would hope that this mess doesn't spill out onto the ice and completely derail what has been a brilliant fantasy season for the Jets' goaltenders. I wouldn't go into panic mode on this front but you should have already have been tossing out feelers with Michael Hutchinson involved. Now that sense of urgency should increase a little.

 

As for how this affects Kane's value, well everything I said yesterday largely holds true. Kane has officially been placed on IR. I maintain that if he decides now to shut down his season after previously playing through injury that I can't trust him anymore. I know that the injury does require surgery at some point but if he's been able to put it off until now then his inability to stick it out for a playoff race because of some adversity is just one strike too many.

 

That said, it's not like we couldn't be dealing with a similar situation to that of Tyler Seguin, which ensures that even if you decide that you are done with Kane as well, you will still have suitors chasing the redemption story.

 

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There was some discussion of Jeff Skinner being a healthy scratch for Carolina last night. Wouldn't be unearned if you ask me. He did end up playing going for 15:58 and some second unit power play time. No scores on four shots.

 

The Hurricanes did scratch Riley Nash last night and not undeserved either. After a hot start Nash has just five points in the last 30 games. The Hurricanes aren't exactly relying on him for scoring but I think that they hoped they might have a 40-point third center on their hands.

 

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Rude welcoming back for Pekka Rinne as the Ducks' depth scoring doused his return to action.

 

Jakob Silfverberg scored himself a pair on six shots in 14:48 of action. I really want to buy in on Silfverberg. He's got the tremendous pedigree having scored a ton his last year in Sweden but he seems to be a bit more of a volume shooter at this level than a volume scorer. He is on pace for right around 200 SOG, which is tremendous but at 7.4% career shooting that maxes him out at like 15 goals. Starting to feel very Cam Atkinson-ish right about now.

 

Of course, Silfverberg isn't quite getting the minutes that would result in a big breakout but we said that about Atkinson as well. Tread carefully.

 

Matt Beleskey scored his 20th goal of the season. It should come as little surprise that the Ducks have had a tough time coming to terms on an extension for the upcoming UFA. Apparently they are so far apart that the Ducks are now shopping him around. Not every year you see the league's top team shopping its second leading goal scorer but apparently the Ducks front office can do simple math too. When a career 10% shooter shoots 17% on his way to a career high you DO NOT show him the money.

 

The real story from this one was Ryan Getzlaf getting scratched late after aggravating a lower-body injury in warm-up. No word on the severity at this point.

 

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Patrik Berglund made his return to the Blues lineup last night skating 10:33. He's so buried on that team it's almost irrelevant if he plays or not for fantasy owners. He lined up with the young guns Dmitrij Jaskin and Ty Rattie who both got on the board. Berglund did not.

 

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Nikita Zadorov was a healthy scratch for the Sabres last night, which ranks pretty high up on the "why is he wasting our time with this?" scale but I figured I'd mention it because dreadful team or not Ted Nolan is still demanding accountability of his players, which if you have a vested interest in any of these guys is ultimately a good thing.

 

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Kimmo Timonen has been cleared to skate and will do so on his own this morning. It remains to be seen what he has left to offer at his advanced age and so much time off but know this, the man is an absolute warrior. Good for him keeping the dream alive. And hell, even zombie-Timonen will be better than some of the dregs on this blue line.

 

Not great news for owners of Michael Del Zotto though. I also wonder if Timonen comes back next season if that will delay the arrival of Shayne Gostisbehere (read more on him here) who is one of my favourite prospects going.

 

Gostisbehere had a cup of coffee earlier this year but it didn't amount to much. He won't really make an impact until Streit is gone but Timonen in the lineup muddies his ability to even get the odd call up or earn a depth role. But Gostisbehere is a freak of nature. After tearing his ACL in November he is already back skating and could play again this season, which is ludicrous.

 

More Flyer news, Scott Laughton made his return to the lineup after a lengthy absence due to concussion. He skated only 12:08 but I don't have high expectations for this season. It's just good to see him back healthy so he can keep getting that experience under his belt.

 

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A day after Rick Nash pulled back in front, Alexander Ovechkin answers right back to knot things up at 32.

 

 

This is getting fun!

 

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Patrick Marleau skated in his 1,300th game last night becoming the youngest player to ever reach that milestone. Say what you will about some of Marleau's inconsistencies throughout his career, he's been damn reliable to play, which is a fine quality to have.

 

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Sounds like Blake Comeau is progressing. He was cleared to shoot at practice yesterday for the first time since the injury.

 

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With Nikita Nikitin finally going on IR the Oilers have called up Martin Marincin. He's not really fantasy-relevant but he's an important piece of the future for the Oilers.

 

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The Stars have called up Brett Ritchie. He got a bit of top line run during his last call-up but with Patrick Eaves clicking there we may see Ritchie in a depth role. He did not get into action last night.

 

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Check out Dobber's latest for Puck Daddy looking at some of the fantasy hockey world's studs and duds.

 

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The Score looks at three players to acquire in your pool.

 

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Sean McIndoe praises the "negative value" player, examining the state of affairs under the hard cap system.

 

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Puck Daddy discusses the 10 best rivalries in the NHL today.

 

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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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