February 6, 2013

steve laidlaw

2015-02-06

The Kings’ rough road ahead, Vasilevskiy’s a real threat, Timonen returns and more…

 

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Time to hit the panic button for the Kings. I know that there is lots of time remaining with 31 games left. I know that they are only five points out of a playoff spot. I know that their possession numbers indicate that they have been unfortunate and that their 1-7 record in the shootout points to further bad fortune than bad play. I know that we've seen this rope-a-dope regular season thing before. I know all of that and I still think that it's time to panic.

 

Here are some realities:

 

The Kings are five points out but are now behind the Avalanche in the playoff race and tied with both the Stars and the Wild. So they don't just have to pass one team here they have to pass and fend off several others. That's where the whole five-point deficit really becomes much wider than it appears.

 

The Kings have been dreadful on the road to the tune of a 5-12-6 record and a minus-15 goal differential. They play 18 of their final 31 games on the road. It's going to be tough to make up ground with that sort of adversity at play.

 

If you are wondering whether or not that road split is relevant, consider that Los Angeles really hasn't been all that strong of a road team these past few seasons having gone 49-39-18 (which if you read between the bullsh… err… loser points, is actually a losing record) with a minus-two goal differential over the previous three seasons.

 

It's not uncommon for teams to have road woes. Even some of the best teams have struggled with travel. Maybe these early road woes are an aberration that the Kings overcome down the stretch. Doesn't seem so likely though. Might be time to start shipping out your Kings, if you can find buyers.

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The problem with trying to sell now is that virtually everyone is already at a reduced value. We've now got nearly 100 games worth of evidence that post-Cup Jonathan Quick is a reduced Jonathan Quick. He could actually use a nice long summer of rest and training to bounce back strong next season. Of course, we know he has the ability to go unconscious when the Kings need it but he'll need some help here.

 

The Slava Voynov situation (there are some ugly allegations) has crippled the Kings' blue line and it's had effects up and down the roster. Obviously Quick has felt the brunt of that but the depth scoring hasn't been there either.

 

Chris Pudsey covered much of the Kings' cap issues in his article yesterday we don't need to rehash too much of that discussion but one important note is just how much Kings GM Dean Lombardi is griping about the cap:

 

"It's a matter of how all these pieces fit into the puzzle," Lombardi said Tuesday, after the Kings prepared for their game against the Washington Capitals at the Verizon Center. "Then we also have this whole thing with the Canadian dollar. I've been talking to other GMs about that. It's a crazy way to run a cap. Do I need a stat guy or do I need a currency trader to figure this out?"

 

I'm sure Lombardi would love to pull another one of his classic manoeuvers and simply call-up the Blue Jackets and ask who they are selling on the cheap but between Voynov and the steadily declining cap projection, Lombardi doesn't know if there is any salary that he can add.

 

Unless Lombardi finds a way to pull another rabbit out of the hat, the Kings' depth scorers are looking awfully useless in fantasy leagues. Basically the only guys looking like consistent options are Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty. And they can't carry the rest of the bunch, even though you know they'll try.

 

Marian Gaborik and Dustin Brown each contributed a couple of points last night and they've been fairly productive the past month or so but that's the fruits of skating with Kopitar on the regular.

 

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Some numbers worth considering here; the Kings average 2.89 goals per game at home but just 2.35 goals per game on the road. That's like flipping from Anaheim's 10th ranked offense to Columbus' 25th ranked offense depending on if games are at the Staples Center or not.

 

I'll be watching to see if the Kings can get a quality defenseman to come in and play 20+ minutes a night. If they can't, then guys like Justin Williams, Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson (among others) can be sent to the waiver wire without much concern. Heck, those three belong there right now (in one-year leagues.)

 

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So that Evander Kane situation sure blew up in a hurry didn't it? This is today's headline in the Winnipeg Sun. Safe to say where the Winnipeg media stands on the subject!

 

I'll say this, it's really sad that all this comes about while the Jets are still sitting in a playoff spot. Were they not in the midst of a season-long five-game losing skid would this have gone off the rails the way it had? Or did the sudden panic setting in help to escalate matters?

 

Regardless, what matters here is the fantasy impact. One would hope that this mess doesn't spill out onto the ice and completely derail what has been a brilliant fantasy season for the Jets' goaltenders. I wouldn't go into panic mode on this front but you should have already have been tossing out feelers with Michael Hutchinson involved. Now that sense of urgency should increase a little.

 

As for how this affects Kane's value, well everything I said yesterday largely holds true. Kane has officially been placed on IR. I maintain that if he decides now to shut down his season after previously playing through injury that I can't trust him anymore. I know that the injury does require surgery at some point but if he's been able to put it off until now then his inability to stick it out for a playoff race because of some adversity is just one strike too many.

 

That said, it's not like we couldn't be dealing with a similar situation to that of Tyler Seguin, which ensures that even if you decide that you are done with Kane as well, you will still have suitors chasing the redemption story.

 

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