Looking Ahead 2015: Week 18
Mike Schmidt
2015-02-06
Looking ahead at the best schedules in fantasy hockey for Week 18.
Early-round fantasy selections should be the centerpieces of any successful fantasy squad. They are blessed with prodigious talent, they boast track records of production at the NHL level and they win fantasy championships… or at least that's what their supposed to do. Sometimes the best players disappoint, and the following four skaters have been fantasy flops so far this year. That being said, let's look ahead and see if brighter days are coming for these guys.
Taylor Hall, C/LW, Edmonton (Yahoo Original Ranking: 21) – Prior to the 2014-15 NHL season, Hall totaled 130 points in 120 games during his previous two seasons in the NHL, thanks in no small part to his ability to score at even strength. According to Hockey Prospectus, Hall's 3.02 even-strength points per 60 ranked among the best in the league. This season has been a disappointing one for the top overall pick in the 2010 NHL Draft. A dip in his shooting percentage (.087 this year, compared to .111 for his career) and a complete inability to convert on the power play (no goals and three assists in 42 games this season) have caused his fantasy value to crater. Hall is more 60-point player than 80-point player right now, and it's difficult to imagine his fortunes will change for the better as one of the lone bright spots on a mostly moribund Edmonton squad.
Nathan MacKinnon, C/RW, Colorado (Yahoo Original Ranking: 39) – Hockey fans and fantasy owners could not have asked for much for from a then-18-year-old MacKinnon during his rookie season a year ago. The top pick in the 2013 NHL Draft suited up for every single game, scored 63 points and totaled 10 points in seven postseason contests. Then this year happened. MacKinnon is seeing less than 17 minutes of ice time per game, his shooting percentage dropped from .100 to .057, and there have been times during the season in which his role on the Colorado offense has fluctuated. MacKinnon is a franchise cornerstone, but his superb rookie campaign caused fantasy owners to expect too much out of a 19-year-old second-year player on a so-so team. For MacKinnon to improve over the final few months of the season, Colorado coach Patrick Roy needs to find a way to get more production out of his 29th-ranked power play.
Jeff Skinner, LW/RW, Carolina (Yahoo Original Ranking: 52) – "Up and down" are the best words to describe this Carolina forward's career. He is a 22-year-old with two 30-goal seasons under his belt, yet he has suffered multiple concussions and has missed 42 games since the start of the 2011-2012 season. There is literally no chance Skinner will notch his third 30-goal campaign this year, as he has managed just 19 points in 45 games played (with only two points on the man advantage). Once considered a building block for the Hurricanes, Skinner is being treated like an afterthought these days. He is currently languishing on a line with Nathan Gerbe and Riley Nash for a Carolina squad that has sunk to the bottom of Metropolitan Division standings. It is safe to say his fantasy value will not rebound anytime soon.
Matt Niskanen, D, Washington (Yahoo Original Ranking: 95) – An offseason move from Pittsburgh to Washington and some regression from last season's unsustainable 1031 PDO have decimated Niskanen's fantasy value. It is probably safe to say last season's 46-point campaign with the Pens was a career year, as the then-27-year-old Niskanen thrived in the absence of fellow blueliners Kris Letang and Paul Martin. Now he is behind Mike Green as the top option for the power play for the Caps. Niskanen will continue to be a fantasy liability unless a trade or (another) injury removes Green from the lineup. If nothing changes, he is MAYBE a 30-point defenseman.
Now let's take a look ahead at some teams to lean on or avoid in the coming week or so:
Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming week)
Chicago 4.27 – four games – STL, ARI, VAN and NJD
Montreal 4.11 – four games – BOS, PHI, EDM and TOR
Steer Clear
Carolina 1.90 – two games – ANA and MIN
Detroit 2.01 – two games – PIT and WPG
Pittsburgh 2.05 – two games – DET and OTT
Buffalo 2.21 – two games – NYI and OTT
Washington 2.76 – three games – PHI, SJS and LAK
Monday, February 9 to Sunday, February 15
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.51 – four games – VAN, WPG, FLA and CAR
Chicago 4.41 – four games – all at home
San Jose 4.35 – four games – CGY, WAS, ARI and TBL
Edmonton 4.04 – four games – NJD, NYI, MTL and OTT
Vancouver 3.80 – four games – MIN, CHI, BOS and CGY
Steer Clear
Colorado 2.05 – two games – NYR and DAL
Carolina 1.90 – two games – ANA and MIN
Boston 2.10 – two games – DAL and VAN
Detroit 2.01 – two games – PIT and WPG
Buffalo 2.15 – two games – OTT and PHI
Tuesday, February 10 to Monday, February 16
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.40 – four games – WPG, FLA, CAR and VAN
Montreal 4.21 – four games – PHI, EDM, TOR and DET
New York Islanders 4.20 – four games – all at home
Ottawa 4.29 – four games – BUF, PIT, EDM and CAR
Winnipeg 4.10 – four games – MIN, NSH, DET and EDM
Steer Clear
New Jersey 1.81 – two games – both on road
Columbus 2.05 – two games – PHI and NYI
Buffalo 2.15 – two games – OTT and PHI
Washington 2.57- three games – all on road
Pittsburgh 2.86 – three games – DET, OTT and CHI
Wednesday, February 11 to Tuesday, February 17
Best Bets
San Jose 4.14 – four games – WAS, ARI, TBL and NSH
New York Islanders 4.10 – four games – TOR, CBJ, NYR and CAR
Carolina 4.00 – four games – ANA, MIN, OTT and NYI
Pittsburgh 3.91 – four games – DET, OTT, CHI and WAS
Vancouver 3.90 – four games – CHI, BOS, CGY and MIN
Steer Clear
Anaheim 2.05 – two games – CAR and WAS
Buffalo 2.10 – two games – PHI and NJD
Boston 2.14 – two games – both on road
Tampa Bay 2.60 – three games – STL, SJS and LAK
Arizona 2.90 – three games – SJS, NYR and COL
Thursday, February 12 to Wednesday, February 18
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.45 – four games – FLA, CAR, VAN and CGY
Ottawa 4.25 – four games – all at home
Los Angeles 4.21 – four games – CGY, WAS, TBL and COL
Montreal 4.15 – four games – DM, TOR, DET and OTT
New York Islanders 4.10 – four games – TOR, CBJ, NYR and CAR
Steer Clear
Buffalo 2.10 – two games – PHI and NJD
Washington 2.52 – three games – all on road
Pittsburgh 2.86 – three games -OTT, CHI and WAS
Arizona 2.90 – three games – SJS, NYR and COL
Dallas 2.92 – three games – FLA, COL and STL