March 13, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-03-13

The top defenseman scorers, the most reliable goalies in 2015 and more…

EEEEEK! For the second month in a row we have a Friday the 13th. Last time around both Shawn Matthias and Joe Pavelski scored hat-tricks, so expect some weirdness tonight.

Remember when Erik Karlsson vs. Kris Letang vs. PK Subban was a huge debate? Who is the best defenseman to own for the next decade, we asked, as though the situation wouldn't be fluid. And as though we would actually be playing fantasy hockey for an entire decade and wouldn't be the slightest bit impatient and try to make a trade. No, we wanted to pick one of those guys and marry our fantasy hockey destiny to them. Well look at who is 1-2-3 on the top defenseman scorer list. Yep, Karlsson, Letang and Subban. It's almost beautiful in its predictability or elegant, at least.

The Hamburglar, Andrew Hammond, strikes again. I don't know what kind of crazy voodoo he's got going on but I want some of it. It's magical. 8-0-1 record for Hammond now. The Senators should probably milk this thing for all it's worth, even with Craig Anderson back.

That's not to say that Hammond would have won the Senators that Bruin game earlier this week. The Bruins came to play and there was seemingly no winning that one for Ottawa. But who knows, maybe he would have inspired the troops. All I know is that we've reached the point in the season where politics shouldn't matter. The Sens need to go like 16-0 the rest of the way and who better to lead them to that than the guy who hasn't lost in regulation?

Cody Eakin returns from a disciplinary scratch and nets two points skating on the top line. That's how you respond. Eakin's return pushes Patrick Eaves back in the lineup at even strength but he's still skating on the top power play unit. Two points for Eaves last night as well.

Without John Klingberg or Trevor Daley in the lineup it's all Alex Goligoski for the Stars. Two points last night gives him four in the last four. That comes after a 10-game drought. He needs to be that #1 option and right now he's getting the chance. He just cleared the 30-point mark and has an outside shot at getting to 40 once again. We'll see how long Klingberg is out for. Right now he's just day-to-day.

Three-point night for Hurricane rookie Victor Rask who now has six points in the last three games. More than likely that's just a blip on the radar. Rask has had a few intriguing runs this season (though this is certainly the best) but ultimately he's been too up-and-down to be a reliable fantasy option.

What's interesting about Rask is how dedicated the coaching staff has been to giving him power play time. He's bounced back and forth between the first and second unit all season but he's spent more time with the first unit and the sum total is about 2:35 on the power play per game and 16:06 total. That's a top-six opportunity. Those aren't growing on trees. Maybe he does more with it next season.

It's awfully disconcerting that Rask only has 26 points in 64 games given such a good opportunity even if he is just a rookie. It's as though the Hurricanes expect him to grow into the role he's been given rather than playing him the minutes that his production level would suggest.

Just to compare, I'd sooner go after a rookie like Dmitri Jaskin who has scored at a similar rate as Rask but has done so with just 50 seconds of power play time a night and 12:55 overall. It might be a few years before Jaskin earns the type of minutes Rask is already seeing but he's showing me that he can score with less, which means he could likely do more once he does get that opportunity.

41 saves for Sergei Bobrovsky in a win over the Red Wings. Is he doing his epic March thing again? Because if he is you really want to get out in front of it. Dude has been the best goalie to own March and April the past two seasons. If he does it again, I'm just drafting him #1 overall and sitting on him all year.

With the chips down, Paul Maurice is riding his guy. Eight straight starts for Michael Hutchinson. Unfortunately for Maurice, I think that all he's done playing Hutchinson so much is expose that he maybe isn't his guy after all.

Hutchinson had a great start to the season and all but his numbers are trending downward in a hurry. Some of that can be explained away by all the injuries the Jets have faced but a lot of it is just regression to the mean. 36 games into the season, we now have a greater sample to pull from and that sample seems to indicate that Hutchinson is an average goalie, not a world beater.

I would never want to judge a goalie just by one season's worth of numbers, so calling Hutchinson an average goalie because of his .913 save percentage through 36 games may not be entirely accurate. Calling him an average goalie based on 111 AHL games where he holds a .915 save percentage is probably a lot more accurate.

I kind of feel like the Jets are cooked this season. Just too many injuries. And the whole crazy goaltending thing is falling apart. That opinion is certainly based on some recency bias but what can I tell you. The Kings are going to make the playoffs so the question is, who drops out? One of Calgary or Winnipeg, for sure having both lost their best defenseman. But the Flames have that alligator blood. Sorry, Jets.

In any case, what's interesting to me is what happens to the Jets goaltending if they don't make the playoffs. If they do make, it'll be on the back of Hutchinson and he'll almost have a free pass to the starting spot next season because of what that meant to the franchise. If they fall short, which is what I suspect will happen, then maybe the spot is open again.

I am unabashedly a fan of Connor Hellebuyck (read more on him here), I think he's the real deal and the future to the Jets' crease. Hutchinson was making that a tough stance to have as he was going supernova. Now, it's suddenly reasonable to think Hellebuyck could make a run at the job in the next couple of years.

Ondrej Pavelec and Ondrej Pavelec's stupid contract complicate things because there is little chance the team would actually send him to the AHL while paying him that money and roll with the Hellebuyck/Hutchinson duo, even if it's their best option. It's just not how these things work. People are too risk averse. Even if playing Pavelec in goal is the riskiest thing you can do they'll point to his experience and contract and give him the benefit of the doubt.

In any case, I don't pretend to have a crystal ball. Just don't be blindsided if Hellebuyck is making a push to be the Jets starter sooner than you anticipate. Again, I don't want to make judgements based on one year but in 49 games at the AHL level Hellebuyck has a .928 save percentage and this after shredding US college hockey for two seasons.

I wasn't overly optimistic about Jaromir Jagr in Florida but five games in he has five points. Not bad. Mind you, all five of those games have come at home but still impressive. Most importantly, Jagr is skating in the top six with either Nick Bjugstad or more frequently Aleksander Barkov as his centerman.

Jagr's minutes are back up over 16 a night and he led the team with 3:53 on the power play last night. Can't ask for a better opportunity than that.

Derek MacKenzie and Dave Bolland combined for an absolute thing of beauty last night and no it wasn't a great back-check.

For a guy who is having an off-year, Jordan Eberle has been amazingly productive. He's up to 50 points on the year with a decent shot at 60. Considering he has scored exactly a point per game (21 in 21) since the All-Star break I'd put good odds on Eberle getting there.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has scored 16 in 21 over that same stretch. Not quite as productive but damn good. Nuge is going to pop one of these seasons. I genuinely believe that. It's probably going to come out of nowhere too. That just seems to be the way this stuff goes.

I love the strides that Nuge has made though. He's shooting more than ever, on pace for 196 SOG and he's scoring at even strength at a greater rate than before. With 34 ESP, Nuge is just one shy of his career best set last season. Sure, his power play production has dropped but I look at that as more of a team thing than an individual skill. The Oilers have boasted a great power play before with these players so it's just a matter of good coaching.

What really impresses me with the Nuge's even-strength scoring is that he's done it with Taylor Hall missing so much time. Hall has proven himself an incredible even-strength scorer having put up 62 ESP last season, just behind Crosby, Getzlaf and Perry overall. Get those two clicking together plus a decent power play and we're talking 90+ points. That's kind of ridiculous to talk about in a season where seemingly no one is going to even make it to 90 but the potential is there. Don't let this season sour you on elite scorers.

As far as the rest of the season goes, I’m taking Eberle if I can. Beyond that, I like the Nuge.

Dual shutouts for Steve Mason and Brian Elliott last night. It's a damn shame I decided to start Marc-Andre Fleury instead of Elliott in my playoff matchup. Had I started Elliott I'd be coasting to victory. Instead I'm only up by the slimmest of margins. I'll be complaining about it all summer if I lose but such is life.

Damn near dual shutouts for Cory Schneider and Semyon Varlamov, in a 1-1 shootout last night. Between those two and Mason, I started thinking about some unheralded goalies who have been among the most dependable in the second half of the season. Check out your top 10 for save percentage (minimum 10 appearances) since the calendar flipped to 2015:

Rank	Player 📢 advertisement:	Team	GP	Save%
1	HAMMOND, ANDREW	OTT	10	0.952
2	PRICE, CAREY	MTL	25	0.944
3	LUNDQVIST, HENRIK	NYR	11	0.943
4	SCHNEIDER, CORY	N.J	24	0.939
5	MASON, STEVE	PHI	18	0.938
6	RASK, TUUKKA	BOS	26	0.936
7	DUBNYK, DEVAN	ARI	26	0.935
8	HOLTBY, BRADEN	WSH	28	0.930
9	VARLAMOV, SIMEON	COL	29	0.929
10	RAMO, KARRI	CGY	12	0.927

That’s courtesy of FrozenPool’s report generator. You can look up basically any group of stats for any time range you want. Very useful tool.

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11	CAR	vs	PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11	MTL	vs	CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11	BUF	vs	OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11	TOR	vs	BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11	NYI	vs	PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11	MIN	vs	L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11	STL	vs	T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11	WPG	vs	UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11	COL	vs	SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11	ANA	vs	VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11	S.J	vs	CBJ