March 20, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-03-20

Luongo returns, Soderberg’s first goal in two months, Pirri’s goal binge and more…

 

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Huge win for the Senators last night pulling to within two points of the Bruins with a game in hand to boot. It wasn't Andrew Hammond's best start. In fact, it was his worst as the first time he had allowed more than two goals in a game at the NHL level. Still got the job done though.

 

Milan Michalek and Mark Stone with three points each. Kyle Turris got three points too but odds are he is owned in your pool. Michalek and Stone on the other hand, likely riding the waiver wire.

 

One Senator who has actually fallen off is Mike Hoffman. It was only a matter of time considering his unsustainably high shooting percentage. He's gone scoreless in six straight and his shooting percentage has slipped to a more reasonable 14.4%.

 

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The Bruins got some nice offensive output from a few players but the most crucial one was probably Carl Soderberg who scored his first goal in over two months. And it's not like this was two months missed with injury. This was two months of coming home with a fat zero night after night. Soderberg went 24 games between goals. That's not just a cold streak. That's frost bite.

 

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Very solid outing for Roberto Luongo in his return to the lineup shutting down the Datsyuk-less Red Wings. I hope his return wasn't too late for your fantasy squad although I know it was for many.

 

Jaromir Jagr scored a pair to end a three-game drought. He's up to seven points in nine games, which sounds about right.

 

Brandon Pirri is indulging in one heck of a goal-scoring binge. He has goals in four straight games, and 13 of his last 19. He has 14 goals in those 19 games. Unreal. His shooting percentage on this run is 18.9%, which is high but it's not as obscenely high as I was expecting. Probably because Pirri has fired 74 SOG during this stretch, which is damn near four per game.

 

Pirri isn't a future 40-goal guy. At least I don't think so. But he's doing well fitting in alongside Nick Bjugstad lately and that chemistry could go a long way if the Panthers develop into a real contender in the coming years.

 

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With Pavel Datsyuk out it was Riley Sheahan stepping onto the second line. Darren Helm returned to the lineup and also grabbed a second-line role pushing Tomas Jurco down to the fourth line. Sheahan got an assist on the lone Red Wing goal so this is a potentially productive spot for him as Datsyuk will miss at least tonight's game.

 

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If the Hurricanes get shutout for the rest of the season is that even affecting any fantasy pools? Honestly, it seems like any team rostering someone off Carolina is out of it by now rendering any points from a Hurricane player essentially useless.

 

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Antti Niemi is doing his best to become the ideal model of the league-average goaltender. He's won basically half of his starts (28 of 55), has exactly the league average save percentage (.914) and is just slightly worse than league-average in goals-against average at 2.60. Way to shoot for the middle.

 

He vanished from my consciousness for a while but Melker Karlsson is back on the radar with points in his last three games. He's still skating up on the top line so the scoring opportunities are there. He has fired 18 SOG on this three-game streak.

 

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TJ Brodie is starting to reclaim some of his power play time though so watch out for him to regain some value and for Russell and Dennis Wideman to perhaps slip a bit. Or we could get more nights like last night where all three hit the scoresheet.

 

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Crazy stat on Steve Mason: his road record this season is now 1-12-6. YIKES. Still performing well in the ratio stats but look elsewhere for wins.

 

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A pair of goals vaults Alexander Ovechkin into the lead in the point race. He's only up one on Nicklas Backstrom, John Tavares and Sidney Crosby but because goals is the tiebreaker for the Art Ross, he technically has a two-point lead on the field.

 

Sportsnet's Stephen Burtsch assesses why we have seen such a tightening of the scoring race this season.

 

Carrying fewer players who require sheltering coupled with an increasing emphasis on even-strength play means teams are forced to roll all four lines if they hope to compete. That’s particularly true if they are planning on a lengthy playoffs, which more teams are thanks to increased parity. It all means the distribution of ice time for forwards is leveling off considerably. So in the late ’90s, the top 15 percent averaged upwards of 21 minutes and the bottom 15 percent 8.5. These days those times are fewer than 19 minutes and nearly 11.

 

I think that we can all get behind that data. The stars are skating fewer minutes than ever before and that's why they are producing a lot less. What's interesting is how this informs the recent rumours of expansion. If teams are finding enough talent to play their stars less and their fourth line more then one could argue we are reaching a certain saturation point in terms of NHL talent available.

 

Of course, the tragedies masquerading as ice hockey teams in Edmonton and Buffalo to name a couple of places suggest that we may not have fully hit that saturation point but with more and more teams spreading their minutes out in this egalitarian way you have to at least acknowledge that we aren't far off.

 

The best teams are still powered by their elite talent. It just so happens that when two teams both feature elite players that sometimes it's who has the better fourth line that gains the advantage. I don't know if that's good for hockey or not. The awesome ability of elite players to do unmatchable things will always be the big draw to sports for me but there is certainly some merit in having fourth-liners who can actually play. The game has never been faster and played with more skill for 60 straight minutes than it is today. At least not in my (short) life time.

 

As fantasy owners we really need to figure out if this tightening process is going to continue and what it means if it does. It certainly devalues elite forwards as a commodity in fantasy pools. Do I still take Crosby first overall if he's only going to get me like 10 points more than the 15th highest scoring forward? One might argue that going for an elite defenseman early offers a better chance to get a leg up than does an elite forward.

 

The problem with going for a defenseman that early is that the overall upside is lower. We've also seen an explosion of fantasy-relevant defensemen the past couple of years. That's no doubt related to the tightening that we've seen at the top for forwards. We're reaching a point where the top scoring defenseman might also not clear the 15th highest scoring defenseman by 10 points, which would make the gambit of going defense early a fruitless endeavour.

 

Going goalie early isn't necessarily a solution either since the top goalie list is more fluid than a bucket of water. The swings in value from year to year are too volatile to make for a sound investment.

 

Maybe you do still take Crosby #1. He just isn't the cure-all for a bad draft like he might have been once. Maybe what this all means is that more than ever you have to nail those late picks in hour four of the draft. No longer can you coast on one or two stars.

This conversation is just getting started. The season is going to end with an 85-point Art Ross winner and we're going to have all summer to stew over the implications. You ready?

 

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Brilliant look at how Patrick Sharp's down season isn't simply about luck from Sportsnet's Chris Boyle. He looks at how Sharp has become much more of a perimeter player when not skating with Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa. It's an excellent example of how the NHL's current tracking data are faulty and why the future of analytics with better player tracking can provide much more informed and reliable takes.

 

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Interesting piece on how Cody Franson has been undervalued and underworked in Nashville. I agree with the sentiment but I'm not sure I would put it exactly that way. The reality is that the Predators have some excellent do-it-all defensemen in Shea Weber and Roman Josi so Franson's skills (specifically on the power play) are redundant. He gives them excellent depth such that they will be better off if someone gets hurt but in terms of being a third pairing guy (the role he is filling currently) it just isn't the best use of his skills.

 

I'd prefer to see Franson in a role similar to Keith Yandle on the Rangers where they have guys who can do the heavy lifting but lack a real power play quarterback/offensive specialist. It hasn't worked for Yandle in New York in terms of scoring but he's being used in a role that suits his skills. The Predators paid a steep price for Franson when his power play skills were already being filled by better options. So I don't think he's necessarily being undervalued. They just acquired one expensive contingency plan when they might have been better served acquiring more of a depth option for cheaper.

 

Of course, they also took Franson off the market such that potential playoff opponents couldn't acquire him. Is that worth a first round pick? It is if they make the Cup Final.

 

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Not relevant to fantasy but Curtis Lazar is an absolute beauty:

 

 

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I'll end today on a somber note. The hockey world lost a true visionary yesterday as CapGeek creator Matthew Wuest passed away far too young. Rarely is there a day when I don't miss the incredible resource that CapGeek was. What Wuest was able to accomplish with that site, genuinely enriching the experiences of so many fans and helping the work of writers was invaluable. He left a legacy I won't soon forget. RIP.

 

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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
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Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
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Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
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Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency WSH Players
22.8 ALIAKSEI PROTAS CONNOR MCMICHAEL PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS
20.1 TOM WILSON DYLAN STROME ANDREW MANGIAPANE
14.9 IVAN MIROSHNICHENKO BRANDON DUHAIME NIC DOWD

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