Sean Monahan or Nick Bjugstad?

Rick Roos

2015-03-11

SeanMonahan

 

Who would you rather own in your league – Sean Monahan or Nick Bjugstad?

 

Normally I decide the pairings for Cage Match based on my own research; but I'm always eager to take suggestions from readers in the comments (hint hint….). And sometimes I find inspiration in the DobberHockey Forums – like this week, after a recent thread about Sean Monahan and Nick Bjugstad caught my eye. So let's decide which of these two is the better fantasy own – Cage Match starts now!

0.10 (S.M.)

0.21 (N.B.)

0.56 (S.M.)

1.54 (N.B.)

0.30 (S.M.)

0.30 (N.B.)

1.86 (S.M.)

2.43 (N.B.)

0.09 (S.M.)

0.04 (N.B.)

6.34 (S.M.)

7.22 (N.B.)

 

Clearly Monahan is a drain on PIM; however, the fact that Bjugstad isn't even averaging seven FOW per game is just as bad, if not worse considering in Yahoo leagues he's eligible only as a center. Bjugstad's Hits are not only outstanding in general (within the top 50 among all forwards), but are more than triple what Monahan produces.

Otherwise, the players are pretty even, except when it comes to Shots, where Bjugstad has a big advantage and, as of March 8th, sat 27th among all NHL forwards. The fact that he shoots so much is a major asset and bodes very well for Bjugstad's future scoring, considering that 17 of the 26 forwards with more Shots than him this season had already scored 50+ points as of March 8th.

 

Luck-Based Metrics

 

Season

Personal Shooting Percentage

PDO/SPSV (5×5)

IPP (5×5)

IPP (5×4)

Offensive Zone Starting % (5×5)

2014-15

16.6% (S.M.)

12.0% (N.B.)

1012 (S.M.)

997 (N.B.)

74.2% (S.M.)

72.7% (N.B.)

52.4% (S.M.)

76.9% (N.B.)

44.9% (S.M.)

53.8% (N.B.)

2013-14

15.7% (S.M.)

8.6% (N.B.)

984 (S.M.)

975 (N.B.)

72.7% (S.M.)

76.7% (N.B.)

46.2% (S.M.)

50.0% (N.B.)

55.0% (S.M.)

52.7% (N.B.)

 

Seeing this should put a big smile on the faces of poolies who own Monahan. That's because his two "luckiest" metrics as a rookie were 5×5 IPP and Personal Shooting Percentage, yet lo and behold he's posting barely higher numbers this season, making it less likely that he was/is unsustainably lucky.

But perhaps the most impressive piece of data for Monahan is his Offensive Zone Starting %, which ranks him in the bottom 25% (213th of 279) among the forwards who've played more than 50 games this season. What's so impressive about that you ask? How about the fact that there are zero forwards who've scored more points than him despite having a lower Offensive Zone Starting %. And the lowest Offensive Zone Starting % of anyone with more points than Monahan is Patrice Bergeron, with 46.0%. And after him, you'd have to go all the way up to Joe Thornton at 48.6%! Very impressive, especially for a guy who doesn't even turn 21 for five more months.

For Bjugstad, only his jump in 5×4 IPP really stands out. But I see that as more a reflection of his skill rather than unsustainable good luck. Simply put – better players will end up with a higher percentage of PP points for teams with a lousy PP, like Florida (26th in PP percentage at 15.5%). Plus, if the team's PP happens to improve to more middle of the road numbers, then Bjugstad's 5×4 IPP could shrink without a negative effect on his point output, so it's a no lose type of situation.

 

Ownership, Value and Remaining Schedule

In Yahoo leagues, both players are undesirably eligible only as a center, which is the deepest position in fantasy hockey and thus not ideal. Going into the season, Monahan was on the radar of more poolies, being drafted in Yahoo leagues on average as the 60th player with eligibility as a center, while Bjugstad wasn't even selected among the top 100. But as of now they're seen as closer in terms of perceived and actual value, with Bjugstad being owned in 34% of all Yahoo leagues and rated as the 38th best center, compared to 44% and 40th for Monahan.

Both Calgary and Florida have 16 games remaining, so neither player enjoys an imbalanced schedule edge for the rest of the regular season. And both are young enough that – barring injury – they should play every remaining game for their clubs.

The only question is whether their productive Ice Times would increase or decrease given that their teams are fighting for their playoff lives. Most likely neither one would see a reduction; however, if that was to happen, it might be to Bjugstad due to faceoffs and Florida having more veterans to lean on.

 

Who Wins?

If you read this column on a regular basis, you know I don't tend to make bold predictions about what might happen to a player. But with Monahan, I'd be remiss not to emphasize that the future looks incredibly bright – perhaps brighter than for any player I've profiled in the more than 18 months I've been writing this column. If you can get Monahan for a reasonable price in a keeper, do it – and I mean do it now. He's my bet for the NHL's (and fantasy's) next young breakout star.

Why do I think this? For a 20-year-old in his second NHL (and pro) season to be leading his team in Ice Time and scoring above a 55-point pace is pretty amazing, but even more so considering it's been achieved with such a low Offensive Zone Starting %, which can only go up from where it is now. All things considered, I think it's realistic to predict a huge breakout for Monahan next season, with him possibly threatening or perhaps exceeding the point per game mark. In terms of comparisons, we could be looking at Monahan having a third season at age 21 like John Tavares did in 2011-12, when he posted 81 points in 82 games during what was also his third campaign at that same age.

Monahan's only weakness (once his offensive zone starting % improves) is his lack of multi-cat prowess, particularly PIM, Shots and Hits, with the latter two being big strengths of Bjugstad. If you own Bjugstad in leagues that count either of those categories, then you're already seeing him pay nice dividends, as evidenced by him being rated higher than Monahan in Yahoo leagues overall. His points should come eventually, given how much he shoots. And when that happens, he could be an elite multi-cat forward.

If you're in a points only keeper and not likely to try and win it all next year, then it might be wise to target Bjugstad this summer, as although he likely won't top 60 points next season he should continue an upward trajectory, which in turn would lead to him costing more to obtain. But using the same logic, those of you in one year leagues should be careful not to overpay to get Bjugstad in your 2015-16 draft, as he might be a trendy "sleeper" pick and thus overvalued.

 

Dennis Wideman vs. James Wisniewski      
Bryan Little vs. Derick Brassard      
James Neal vs. Nick Foligno      

 

 

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Oct 07 - 17:10 FLA vs CHI
Oct 07 - 20:10 NYR vs PIT
Oct 07 - 22:10 L.A vs COL

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON BLAKE CAR
MARCO ROSSI MIN
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK
RYAN DONATO CHI
ARSENIY GRITSYUK N.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JET GREAVES CBJ
JEREMY SWAYMAN BOS
CARTER HART
ARVID SODERBLOM CHI
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency COL Players
23.7 MARTIN NECAS NATHAN MACKINNON ARTTURI LEHKONEN
22.4 VALERI NICHUSHKIN BROCK NELSON GABRIEL LANDESKOG
19.0 LOGAN O'CONNOR PARKER KELLY JACK DRURY

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson: Because It’s the KKUPFL, Season 11

Elan and Brian reveal a key change for Season 11 of the Keeping Karlsson Ultimate Patron Fantasy League (KKUPFL), the world’s top fantasy hockey league. They also share and consider feedback from Season 10 managers, responding with tips and thoughts on fantasy hockey league building and philosophy.

Fantasy Hockey Life: Ottawa Senators with Alex Adams

Alex Adams of Sportsnet is here to report on the Ottawa Senators. Jesse and Victor interview Alex about returning pros Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk, Dylan Cozens, Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig, Fabian Zetterlund, Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot, Jordan Spence, Linus Ullmark, and Leevi Meralainen. In Cat’s Instincts, Cat Silverman of InGoal mag […]

Fantasy Hockey Life: Washington Capitals Preview with Dan Holmi of Locked on Caps

Dan Holmi is here to report on the Washington Capitals. Jesse and Victor interview Dan about returning pros Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, Aliaksei Protas, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tom Wilson, Connor McMichael, Ryan Leonard, John Carlson, Jakob Chychrun, Rasmus Sandin, Logan Thompson, and Charlie Lindgren. In Cat’s Instincts, Cat Silverman of InGoal mag breaks down Garin Bjorklund.  […]

FIND US ON FACEBOOK