March 26, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-03-26

Playing the splits with Varlamov and Mason, Simmonds done for the year, Sean Burke’s impact and more…

I know that the use of split stats can be a highly contentious issue but I really feel as though when used properly they can have an extraordinary impact on your fantasy roster. Consider the example of last night with Steve Mason skating at home versus a juggernaut in the Blackhawks while Semyon Varlamov was taking on a lemon on the road in Edmonton. Check out the split stats for these two and tell me how you think last night went:

Mason

Home – 15-5-4 – 1.93 GAA – .938 Save%

Road – 1-12-6 – 2.64 GAA – .912 Save%

Varlamov

Home – 15-8-1 – 2.19 GAA – .928 Save%

Road – 10-10-7 – 2.92 GAA – .915 Save%

If you guessed that Mason would hold the struggling Blackhawk offense to just one goal while Varlamov got dusted for three goals on seven shots less than 10 minutes into the game against the surging Oilers offense well then you nailed it. To be fair, this is an extreme example but its proof that micromanaging your roster can work and is a way to take advantage of undervalued assets like Mason and Varlamov. Only throw these two out for home games and you've built yourself a Carey Price out of magic.

The main criticism against this sort of strategy is that single-season trends aren't necessarily predictive, especially if you pick up on something like this half-way through a season and a goalie has played only 30-40 starts (so only 10-20 at home or road each), which isn't much of a sample size to work with. I'd agree with that but it's impossible to ignore that teams just play better at home than on the road over a large enough sample size and that can be generalized for starting goaltenders. So if you see a trend emerging in that direction you can approach it with some confidence. It also helps if the goaltenders' career numbers support this trend and for Mason and Varlamov they do:

Mason

Home – 95-67-17 – 2.53 GAA – .914 Save%

Road – 53-69-27 – 2.95 GAA – .904 Save%

Varlamov

Home – 77-41-15 – 2.25 GAA – .925 Save%

Road – 56-50-18 – 2.86 GAA – .911 Save%

These are some extreme examples but I'm not really talking about a strict adherence to such a strategy, it's just another tool to holster in your belt if the time is right. Obviously there will be plenty of situations where you need to skate your goalie regardless of home/road split, particularly in head-to-head leagues. This strategy is much better for rotisserie leagues where the home/road splits can really average out over a large sample and glean your advantage.

Certainly, this strategy could lead to putting bad performances into your lineup and sitting some good ones. The idea is to get the better odds over a larger sample, which should help in your decision making, which can be a real challenge some nights.

Wayne Simmonds was kind enough to give fantasy owners a nice parting gift, a goal, before finishing his season. He along with Andrew MacDonald were hurt last night and both are done for the year.

I'm afraid that this will mean the return of Vinny Lecavalier's statue.

Just one point in his last 11 games for Kris Versteeg. He went extinct the second Patrick Kane got wiped out for the year.

The Blackhawks scratched Bryan Bickell, Teuvo Teravainen and David Rundblad last night. I just don't get benching Teravainen when your team is hurting for offense like they are. Not that it makes a big difference last night, I just want to see the kid play. The fact that the Blackhawks continue to give time to Daniel Carcillo is just salt in the wound on that front.

The Oilers' top line is the hottest in hockey right now. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was held off the board for the first time in over two weeks. He still has 16 points in 11 games in the month of March. Can't argue with that.

While Nugent-Hopkins didn't score both Jordan Eberle and Benoit Pouliot kept things going for the Oiler top line. Eberle and Nuge are unattainable in most fantasy leagues at this point but Pouliot is still widely available. Could be worth a sniff. He's on pace for 46 points over an 82 game season, which would be a career high.

Pouliot has actually never cleared 40 in a season. We can't give him credit for it this season either. You have to stay healthy to prove it but I'll tell you what. If you want someone who could pull a Nick Foligno next season, this guy is a candidate, though I am not optimistic.

Anton Lander is hanging onto his spot on the top power play unit. It hasn't been all that productive for him though he does have four power-play goals in limited action this season. His presence is also keeping Taylor Hall off the top unit, which is something to watch for going into next season. I wouldn't love that but the possibility of Hall turning into more of a five-on-five specialist for the Oilers does exist, sort of like how Brad Marchand or Marian Hossa operate.

If the Oilers have the hottest line in hockey then Colorado's four-some of Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog, Alex Tanguay and Jarome Iginla is the next hottest. The former three names are an actual line, while Iginla rounds out the group when they skate on the power play with Tyson Barrie. Those four have scored 13, 12, nine and nine respectively through 10 March games. Not bad.

Matt Duchene, meanwhile, is out in the cold with just five points in the last 10.

Tough loss for the Flames last night although the loser point still pulls them into sole possession of the last playoff spot in the West. Unfortunately, the Kings, with a game in hand, now have the opportunity to win out and grab that final playoff spot.

Sean McIndoe takes a look at how Calgary's odds-defying season is already a victory regardless of how it finishes from here. I agree to a certain extent. I think that people were already looking beyond merely possession metrics and looking at shot quality as an indicator of good play but if you want that to expand then this Flames team might have to hold off the possession-friendly Kings and even win a round or two.

I don't even think it's that farfetched that the Flames might win a round or two. Remember, before they blew a three-goal lead in game seven the Leafs were a terrible possession team taking it to one of the league's best possession clubs. Crazy stuff happens over small sample sizes. And I don't happen to believe that the Vancouver Canucks are all that intimidating an opponent for these Flames. In fact, neither are the Ducks who they'd likely face in round two were they to make it that far.

My biggest concern with the Flames is actually their collective youth and not so much in terms of age but just in terms of experience. How many of these guys have actually seen a seven-game series at this level? Not many.

Not having Mark Giordano also kills their team depth. TJ Brodie, Kris Russell and Dennis Wideman are all skating 25+ minutes a night without Giordano those guys are going to be burnt out and if one gets hurt well that just ramps things up even higher.

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Russell, the NHL's shot blocking leader, just blocked another 10 last night. Each and every one of those is an opportunity for injury and season-derailment.

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11	WSH	vs	COL
Nov 21 - 19:11	CBJ	vs	T.B
Nov 21 - 19:11	OTT	vs	VGK
Nov 21 - 19:11	DET	vs	NYI
Nov 21 - 19:11	BOS	vs	UTA
Nov 21 - 19:11	N.J	vs	CAR
Nov 21 - 20:11	STL	vs	S.J
Nov 21 - 20:11	CHI	vs	FLA
Nov 21 - 21:11	CGY	vs	NYR
Nov 21 - 21:11	EDM	vs	MIN