April 2, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-04-02

Malkin and Kesler sit out, Brayden Schenn’s outlook, why Penguins might fall in playoff pools and more…

No Malkin for the Penguins last night as he was a late scratch due to an undisclosed injury.

Things are really going off the rails for Pittsburgh on the injury front. No Letang or Ehrhoff last night left them with just five defensemen and the Malkin injury meant utilizing only 17 skaters for the full game. So much for finding rest for your guys down the stretch. It's expected that the Penguins will call someone up to fill the void but they are somewhat limited by the emergency call-up rules so they can't just bring any prospect up.

There's an upside to all of these injuries. The Penguins no longer have the luster they did early on when they were smashing teams with an otherworldly power play. You won't necessarily find a bargain on Crosby or Malkin in your playoff pool but you may not have to be picking 1-2 in order to get one. More importantly, the serious doubt cast over Pittsburgh could push guys like Patric Hornqvist, David Perron, a slumping Chris Kunitz, etc. down a round or two come draft time.

It'll all depend on matchups, of course. If things finish as is then the Penguins get and Islanders team that while dangerous hasn't set the world on fire of late. That's probably the least value-suppressing of all the potential first round matchups the Penguins could face and even in that one I think people are leaning more and more towards a Pittsburgh loss.

For a little bit of context, the one year I actually won my playoff pool was the year the Penguins took the Cup and that year they were only a four-seed facing a tough Flyers club in the opening round that was arguably as good as they were. That allowed me to draft Crosby/Malkin at #10 and #11 as I had fantastic positioning at the elbow slot in the draft order. Feels like something similar might be brewing here.

With all the injuries Derick Pouliot is skating on the top power play unit now but things are so dire that I'm not sure getting those extra minutes even has value right now.

Nice night for Brayden Schenn with a couple of goals to end a six-game scoring drought. Unfortunately, the scoring just hasn't come frequently enough for a guy skating so many big minutes for the Flyers. He either needs to start making some strides next season or someone is going to take his spot on the top power play unit. I don't know who that guy would be to take his spot otherwise I'd be leaning that direction.

It should be mentioned that Schenn's on-ice shooting percentage is sitting well below league-average at 6.05%. Some regression on that front would help him hit another level next season.

The Flyers decided to give Ryan White over seven minutes of power play time last night. Not sure what that's about. He wasn't productive with the minutes and I can't rightly suggest you make him a pickup.

Claude Giroux since the All-Star break has scored just 18 points in 29 games. It sure feels like that has gone underreported.

Rare road win for Steve Mason. I wonder how many Mason owners out there made their finals for that to matter?

Brian Gionta is scorching hot right now. Last night was his fourth multi-point effort in the last five games giving him 11 points in the past nine. He also has 39 SOG in that stretch.

Some of this hot run is schedule effects. The Sabres have been on the road for five of those nine games but their opponents have been Washington, Boston, New Jersey, Nashville, Dallas, Arizona twice, Colorado and then Toronto last night. Only three of nine against playoff opponents. They finish up with three of their last five against playoff teams so maybe don't go after Gionta. On the other hand, one of those teams is Pittsburgh who have been a friendly opponent lately.

Three points in three games since returning from suspension for Nazem Kadri. Positive signs for next year?

Here's an interesting thought on the Blues' lack of experience from The Hockey News' Matt Larkin:

Blues projected starting playoff roster: no Cup rings, no final appearances, one player who has been past the second round.

Definitely lends some credence to the notion that we need to see these guys wind a round or two before really believing in them. A lot of folks have said that this team needs to win a round to believe in themselves.

Larkin's fact above was in reference to a piece he wrote on three Cup contenders who could choke in the first round. I won't step on the article completely but the Blues were definitely one of the team's listed. I don't think he's wrong that they could lose in round one, I just don't agree with the premise that it would be choking. The Blues are basically locked into playing someone from the Central and that division is murder. I wouldn't call it choking to lose to any of those teams and I'd make a similar argument for just about every other team set to make the playoffs.

I have as many as 12 teams as potential Cup contenders. Is that a cop out? Maybe. But I think it's more an accurate reflection of how wide open this year is and how a little bit of luck will go a long way with the margins as thin as they are. With that being the case, it's going to make for some very interesting playoff pool drafts.

Dustin Byfuglien will have a phone hearing today regarding his hit on JT Miller the other night. The phone hearing reduces the maximum suspension he could receive but would anyone be shocked if Byfuglien lost a couple of games?

If your league even extends into the final week of the season Byfuglien may be a drop, especially because the Jets don't play again until this weekend.

The Hockey Writers with a profile on my favourite non-McEichel prospect in this year's draft, Mikko Rantanen:

Shoot more – Mikko will need to move from the pass first mentality prevalent in Europe to the more "shoot where possible" mentality of North America. The quality of his shots are good; it is just the quantity that he needs to work on.

Admittedly, I'm not watching Rantanen overseas so I don't know what his habits are playing back in Finland but what I saw at the World Juniors this year was not a player who needed to be taught to shoot more. This guy flung so much rubber he made enemies of the Michelin Man. He looked like a young Patric Hornqvist to me, which should play extremely well in multi-category leagues. You can read more on Rantanen here.

The Panthers signed defenseman Michael Matheson to a contract yesterday. I don't expect Matheson to knock Aaron Ekblad off his perch as the Panthers' #1 defenseman but he could edge out guys like Brian Campbell and Dmitri Kulikov whenever he makes the team. He'll report to the minors right away and will probably be at least a year in the minors due to the Panthers' depth but he's a really solid prospect so don't underestimate Matheson's fantasy potential. The Cats have something good brewing down there. Read more on Matheson here.

FiveThirtyEight with some damning evidence of how the loser point gives team's incentive to play for the tie late in the game, especially late in the season:

Francois Beauchemin, a Ducks defender who was on the ice for much of the final 1:49, admitted that going to OT — where the winner gets two points and the loser one — is the primary goal late in tie games. "We won't take as many offensive chances as we would if we were down one goal or tied at the end of the second period," he said. "We talk about it [with the coaches]."

Pardon my French but **** the loser point.

Checkout ESPN's Showdown piece on Evgeni Malkin vs. Jakub Voracek. It's kind of like our Cage Match column, only not as good or as fantasy relevant. Shout out to Rick Roos for continually bringing the heat.

Sean McIndoe gives us 12 options to fix tanking. Some of them are even good. My choice would be to blow up the draft entirely and move to a free agent system. It would NEVER happen. The league has it too good with the ability to suppress entry salaries via the draft but I'm a big fan of applying free market principles. I think we'd see less teams splurging on 30-year-olds when they can direct the cap space towards the best incoming players. It wouldn't eliminate terrible spending but it would alter the landscape.

If/when I ever get an auction keeper league off the ground my plan is to have the newly drafted players added to the annual auction each year. Maybe I'd base certain auction budgets based on where each team finishes but probably not. Why reward tanking at all? And nothing disincentivizes tanking like eliminating the draft entirely.

You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.